Forcing mechanisms of a heavy precipitation event in the southeastern Adriatic area     

Branka Ivančan-Picek  Kristian Horvath  Nataša Strelec Mahović  Marjana Gajić-Čapka 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):1231-1252

The aim of this study was to identify the main mesoscale features and mechanisms responsible for the generation of an extreme precipitation event as a contribution to improving the modelling of processes that produce HPEs. The event occurred during the morning hours on 22 November 2010 over the Dubrovnik coast in Croatia and the hinterland mountain range of the southern Dinaric Alps and caused severe flash floods and landslides and consequent interruption of traffic and electricity supply as well as other infrastructural damage. The analysis is geographically focused on the southern portion of the eastern Adriatic region, which is prone to relatively frequent heavy precipitation events that occur mostly in autumn. This area is one of the rainiest in Europe with expected annual amounts of precipitation greater than 5,000 mm in the mountainous hinterland. The mechanisms responsible for the formation of convection were analysed using synop measurements, satellite data and numerical experiments performed with the WRF model, which was set up at the convection-permitting resolution in the innermost domain. Satellite data were used to identify the precipitation systems and to estimate the intensity of the precipitation during the period of interest. The development of the precipitation system was connected to a strong large-scale ascent over the southern Italy and southern Adriatic due to the advection of warm air and cyclonic vorticity advection, which increases with height. The numerical simulations highlighted the essential role of a southerly low-level jet stream in the transport of warm and moist air towards the affected area. The convergence of two branches of low-level marine air favoured convection triggered over the coast and sea. Furthermore, numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the orography of the Dinaric Alps plays an essential role in the precipitation maximum over the mountainous hinterland, but also that the orography was not the crucial factor in the heavy precipitation near Dubrovnik. This study highlights the need for a dense network of observations, especially radar measurements, to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical forecasts via data assimilation.  相似文献   

X-ray, Lyα and Hα emission from simulated disk galaxies     

Jesper Sommer-Larsen  Sune Toft  Jesper Rasmussen  Kristian Pedersen  Martin Götz  Laura Portinari 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,284(2):693-696

The X-ray properties of the haloes of disk galaxies formed in fully cosmological, hydro/gravity simulations are discussed. The results are found to be consistent with observational X-ray detections and upper limits. Disk galaxy haloes are predicted to be about an order of magnitude brighter at z ∼ 1 than at z=0. The Lyα and Hα surface brightness of an edge-on, Milky Way like model galaxy has been determined. The emission is found to be quite extended, with a scale height of about 600 pc, neglecting dust corrections. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

A new moment method for continuum radiative transfer in cosmological re-ionization     

Kristian Finlator  Feryal Özel  Romeel Davé 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,393(4):1090-1106

We introduce a new code for computing time-dependent continuum radiative transfer and non-equilibrium ionization states in static density fields with periodic boundaries. Our code solves the moments of the radiative transfer equation, closed by an Eddington tensor computed using a long characteristics (LC) method. We show that traditional short characteristics and the optically thin approximation are inappropriate for computing Eddington factors for the problem of cosmological re-ionization. We evolve the non-equilibrium ionization field via an efficient and accurate (errors <1 per cent) technique that switches between fully implicit or explicit finite differencing depending on whether the local time-scales are long or short compared to the time-step. We tailor our code for the problem of cosmological re-ionization. In tests, the code conserves photons, accurately treats cosmological effects and reproduces analytic Strömgren sphere solutions. Its chief weakness is that the computation time for the LC calculation scales relatively poorly compared to other techniques  ( t _LC∝ N ^∼1.5_cells)  ; however, we mitigate this by only recomputing the Eddington tensor when the radiation field changes substantially. Our technique makes almost no physical approximations, so it provides a way to benchmark faster but more approximate techniques. It can readily be extended to evolve multiple frequencies, though we do not do so here. Finally, we note that our method is generally applicable to any problem involving the transfer of continuum radiation through a periodic volume.  相似文献   

Comparing long term sediment records to current biological quality element data - Implications for bioassessment and management of a eutrophic lake     

Tommi Kauppila  Antti Kanninen  Matias ViitasaloJohanna Räsänen  Kristian MeissnerJukka Mattila 《Limnologica》2012,42(1):19-30

Defining reference conditions for lakes situated in areas of human settlement and agriculture is rarely straightforward, and is especially difficult within easily eroding and nutrient rich watersheds. We used diatoms, cyanobaterial akinetes, remains of green algae and chironomid head capsules from sediment samples of Lake Kirmanjärvi, Finland, to assess its deviation from the initial ecological status. These site-specific records of change were compared to current type-specific ecological status assessment. All paleolimnological data indicated deviation from natural conditions and mirrored the current, monitoring-based assessment of “moderate” ecological lake status. However, the sediment data showed that the lake should be re-typified as a naturally eutrophic lake. Sediment records as well as current monitoring data indicated temporary improvement in water quality in response to extensive fish manipulation. Our results suggest that paleolimnological records can be used to derive site-specific reference conditions and that extensive restoration efforts can result in gradual, observable improvements of water quality and ecological status.  相似文献   

Commonwealth Urban Policy in Australia: the case of inner urban regeneration in Sydney, 1973–75     

Kristian Ruming  Andy Tice  Robert Freestone 《The Australian geographer》2010,41(4):447-467

Urban regeneration has intermittently been identified within Commonwealth policy circles as central to the functioning of Australian cities since the 1940s. This paper adds to existing knowledge by exploring the role of the Commonwealth Department of Urban and Regional Development (DURD) in the 1970s in facilitating a series of urban regeneration projects in Sydney. Drawing upon ministerial correspondence and minutes recently out of confidential embargo, the genesis of a holistic urban regeneration agenda is explored. The paper traces the approaches to Commonwealth intervention at a time marked by disillusionment with the comprehensive redevelopment paradigm. It explores the relationships and tensions apparent between and within different levels of government in establishing a Commonwealth presence, focusing on three inner city neighbourhoods: Waterloo, Glebe and Woolloomooloo. The significance of the interventions is considered to lie primarily in the pioneering of an all-of-government approach to urban governance.  相似文献   

Understanding the statistical properties of the percent model affinity index can improve biomonitoring related decision making     

Johanna Ärje  Kwok-Pui Choi  Fabio Divino  Kristian Meissner  Salme Kärkkäinen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(7):1981-2008

The percent model affinity (PMA) index is used to measure the similarity of two probability profiles representing, for example, an ideal profile (i.e. reference condition) and a monitored profile (i.e. possibly impacted condition). The goal of this work is to study the effects of sample size, evenness, true value of the index and number of classes on the statistical properties of the estimator of the PMA index. We derive and extend previous formulas of the expectation and variance of the estimator for estimated monitored profile and fixed reference profile. Using the obtained extension, we find that the estimator is asymptotically unbiased, converging faster when the profiles differ. When both profiles are estimated, we calculate the expectation using transformation rules for expectation and in addition derive the formula for the estimator’s variance. Since the computation of the probabilities in the variance formula is slow, we study the behavior of the variance with simulation experiments and assess whether it could be approximated with the variance for the fixed reference profile. Finally, we provide a set of recommendations for the users of the PMA index to avoid the most common caveats of the index.  相似文献   

Modelling forest snow processes with a new version of WaSiM     

Kristian Förster  Jakob Garvelmann  Gertraud Meißl  Ulrich Strasser 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1540-1557

ABSTRACT

We present a new model extension for the Water balance Simulation Model, WaSiM, which features (i) snow interception and (ii) modified meteorological conditions under coniferous forest canopies, complementing recently developed model extensions for particular mountain hydrological processes. Two study areas in Austria and Germany are considered in this study. To supplement and constrain the modelling experiments with on-site observations, a network of terrestrial time-lapse cameras was set up in one of these catchments. The spatiotemporal patterns of snow depth inside the forest and at the adjacent open field sites were recorded along with snow interception dynamics. Comparison of observed and modelled snow cover and canopy interception indicates that the new version of WaSiM reliably reconstructs the variability of snow accumulation for both the forest and the open field. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency computed for selected runoff events in spring increases from ?0.68 to 0.71 and 0.21 to 0.87, respectively.  相似文献   

Phytoplankton life cycle transformations lead to species-specific effects on sediment processes in the Baltic Sea     

Kristian Spilling  Magnus Lindstrm 《Continental Shelf Research》2008,28(17):2488-2495

In order to study the sediment response to different addition of organic matter, we added cultures of the dinoflagellates Scrippsiella hangoei and Woloszynskia halophila and the diatom Pauliella taeniata to aquaria containing natural sediment. The biomass added was 1550–3260 mg C m⁻², and in the control, no biomass was added (n=3). Oxygen profiles at the sediment–water interface and inorganic nutrients in the near bottom water were determined once a week. In the additions of P. taeniata and W. halophila the sediment quickly became anoxic, and subsequently there was a flux of >1 mmol PO₄³⁻ m⁻² d⁻¹ out of the sediment in these treatments. The majority of the released P came from P stored in the sediment and not from the organic phosphorus added. The result was very different for the S. hangoei addition. This species underwent a life cycle change to form temporary cysts. During this process there was a net uptake of nutrients. After the formation of cysts the concentration of inorganic nutrient was similar to that of the control. Cysts generally survive for long periods in the sediment (months to years) before germinating, but can also be permanently buried in the sediment. The novel idea presented here is that the phytoplankton composition may directly affect sediment processes such as oxygen consumption and phosphorus release, through species-specific life cycle changes and yields of resting stages produced prior to sedimentation. This can be an important aspect of nutrient cycling in eutrophic waters, like the Baltic Sea, where there is large year-to-year difference in the amount of resting stages settling at the sea floor, mainly due to differences in abundance of diatoms and dinoflagellates during the spring bloom. If yields of resting stages change, e.g. due to changes in the phytoplankton community, it may lead to alterations in the biogeochemical cycling of nutrients.  相似文献   

Airborne laser altimetry survey of Glaciar Tyndall, Patagonia   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Kristian Keller  Gino Casassa  Andrs Rivera  Rene Forsberg  Niels Gundestrup 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,59(1-4):101

The first airborne laser altimetry measurements of a glacier in South America are presented. Data were collected in November of 2001 over Glaciar Tyndall, Torres del Paine National Park, Chilean Patagonia, onboard a Twin Otter airplane of the Chilean Air Force. A laser scanner with a rotating polygon-mirror system together with an Inertial Navigation System (INS) were fixed to the floor of the aircraft, and used in combination with two dual-frequency GPS receivers. Together, the laser–INS–GPS system had a nominal accuracy of 30 cm after data processing. On November 23rd, a total of 235 km were flown over the ablation area of Glaciar Tyndall, with 5 longitudinal tracks with a mean swath width of 300 m, which results in a point spacing of approximately 2 m both along and across track. A digital elevation model (DEM) generated using the laser altimetry data was compared with a DEM produced from a 1975 map (1:50,000 scale — Instituto Geográfico Militar (IGM), Chile). A mean thinning of − 3.1 ± 1.0 m a^− 1 was calculated for the ablation area of Glaciar Tyndall, with a maximum value of − 7.7 ± 1.0 m a^− 1 at the calving front at 50 m a.s.l. and minimum values of between − 1.0 and − 2.0 ± 1.0 m a^− 1 at altitudes close to the equilibrium line altitude (900 m a.s.l.). The thinning rates derived from the airborne survey were similar to the results obtained by means of ground survey carried out at  600 m of altitude on Glaciar Tyndall between 1975 and 2002, yielding a mean thinning of − 3.2 m a^− 1 [Raymond, C., Neumann, T.A., Rignot, E., Echelmeyer, K.A., Rivera, A., Casassa, G., 2005. Retreat of Tyndall Glacier, Patagonia, over the last half century. Journal of Glaciology 173 (51), 239–247.]. A good agreement was also found between ice elevation changes measured with laser data and previous results obtained with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data. We conclude that airborne laser altimetry is an effective means for accurately detecting glacier elevation changes in Patagonia, where an ice thinning acceleration trend has been observed during recent years, presumably in response to warming and possibly also drier conditions.  相似文献   

Short-term effects of gamma ray bursts on Earth     

Osmel Martín  Douglas Galante  Rolando Cárdenas  J. E. Horvath 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,321(3-4):161-167

The aim of the present work is to study the potential short-term atmospheric and biospheric influence of Gamma Ray Bursts on the Earth. We focus in the ultraviolet flash at planet’s surface, which occurs as a result of the retransmission of the γ radiation through the atmosphere. This would be the only important short-term effect on life. We mostly consider Archean and Proterozoic eons, and for completeness we also comment on the Phanerozoic. Therefore, in our study we consider atmospheres with oxygen levels ranging from 10^?5 to 1 of the present atmospheric level, representing different moments in the oxygen rise history. Ecological consequences and some strategies to estimate their importance are outlined.  相似文献