A simulation of Asian dust events in March 2010 by using the ADAM2 model     

Soon-Ung Park  Anna Choe  Moon-Soo Park 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(3-4):491-503

Asian dust events occurred in Asia during March 2010 were simulated using the Asian Dust Aerosol Model 2 (ADAM2). The performance of the model for simulations of surface dust concentrations and dust event occurrences was tested at several monitoring sites located in the dust source region and the downstream region of Korea. The observed and modeled dust event occurrences at each monitoring site were defined with the hourly observed and modeled dust concentrations that were used to evaluate the performance of the model by constructing a contingency table for the dust event occurrence. It was found that the model simulated quite well the starting and ending times of dust events with their peak dust concentrations for most dust events occurred both in the dust source region and the downstream region of Korea. However, the model failed to simulate a few dust events observed in both regions mainly due to the inaccurate simulations of the meteorological fields. Inaccurate simulations of wind speeds have caused for the model to simulate dust events poorly in the dust source region whereas poor simulations of precipitation of the fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) model have led to miss dust events in the downstream region of Korea. The contingency table made with the hourly data for the dust event occurrence made it possible to evaluate the ADAM2 model for the simulation of the dust event occurrence. It was found that the model has the probabilistic simulation capability for dust events of about 78% with the hit rate of more than 83% and the false alarm rate of about 27% for the dust events occurred during March in 2010. The probabilistic capability of the model could be much improved by improving the meteorological model (MM5 model).  相似文献   

A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Matthew B. Menary  Wonsun Park  Katja Lohmann  Michael Vellinga  Matthew D. Palmer  Mojib Latif  Johann H. Jungclaus 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(11-12):2377-2388

A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100?years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000?years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world.  相似文献   

Recent and future sea surface temperature trends in tropical pacific warm pool and cold tongue regions   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Soon-Il An  Ji-Won Kim  Seul-Hee Im  Beak-Min Kim  Jae-Heung Park 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(6):1373-1383

Using coral data, sea surface temperature (SST) reanalysis data, and Climate Model Intercomparison Project III (CMIP3) data, we analyze 20th-century and future warm pool and cold tongue SST trends. For the last 100?years, a broad La Nina-like SST trend, in which the warming trend of the warm pool SST is greater than that of the cold tongue SST, has appeared in reanalysis SST data sets, 20C scenario experiments of the CMIP3 data and less significantly in coral records. However, most Coupled General Circulation Models subjected to scenarios of future high greenhouse gas concentrations produce larger SST warming trends in cold tongues than in warm pools, resembling El Nino-like SST patterns. In other words, warmer tropical climate conditions correspond to stronger El Nino-like response. Heat budget analyses further verify that warmer tropical climates diminish the role of the ocean’s dynamic thermostat, which currently regulates cold tongue temperatures. Therefore, the thermodynamic thermostat, whose efficiency depends on the mean temperature, becomes the main regulator (particularly via evaporative cooling) of both warm pool and cold tongue temperatures in future warm climate conditions. Thus, the warming tendency of the cold tongue SST may lead that of the warm pool SST in near future.  相似文献   

Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)     

Bin Wang  June-Yi Lee  In-Sik Kang  J. Shukla  C.-K. Park  A. Kumar  J. Schemm  S. Cocke  J.-S. Kug  J.-J. Luo  T. Zhou  B. Wang  X. Fu  W.-T. Yun  O. Alves  E. K. Jin  J. Kinter  B. Kirtman  T. Krishnamurti  N. C. Lau  W. Lau  P. Liu  P. Pegion  T. Rosati  S. Schubert  W. Stern  M. Suarez  T. Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(1):93-117

We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981–2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial–temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80–90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework.  相似文献   

The Asian Dust Aerosol Model 2 (ADAM2) with the use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from the Spot4/vegetation data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Soon-Ung Park  Anna Choe  Eun-Hee Lee  Moon-Soo Park  Xingzhuo Song 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,101(1-2):191-208

The operational Asian Dust Aerosol Model (ADAM)1 in Korea Meteorological Administration has been modified to the ADAM2 model to be used as an operational forecasting model all year round not only in Korea but also in the whole Asian domain (70-160°E and 5-60°N) using the routinely available World Meteorological Organization (WMO) surface reporting data and the Spot/vegetation Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for the period of 9 years from 1998 to 2006. The 3-hourly reporting WMO surface data in the Asian domain have been used to re-delineate the Asian dust source region and to determine the temporal variation of the threshold wind speed for the dust rise. The dust emission reduction factor due to vegetation in different surface soil-type regions (Gobi, sand, loess, and mixed soil) has been determined with the use of NDVI data. It is found that the threshold wind speed for the dust rise varies significantly with time (minimum in summer and maximum in winter) and surface soil types with the highest threshold wind speed of 8.0 m?s^?1 in the Gobi region and the lowest value of 6.0 m?s^?1 in the loess region. The statistical analysis of the spot/vegetation NDVI data enables to determine the emission reduction factor due to vegetation with the free NDVI value that is the NDVI value without the effect of vegetation and the upper limit value of NDVI for the dust rise in different soil-type regions. The modified ADAM2 model has been implemented to simulate two Asian dust events observed in Korea for the periods from 31 March to 2 April 2007 (a spring dust event) and from 29 to 31 December 2007 (a winter dust event) when the observed PM₁₀ concentration at some monitoring sites in the source region exceeds 9,000 μg m^?3. It is found that ADAM2 model successfully simulates the observed high dust concentrations of more than 8,000 μg m^?3 in the dust source region and 600 μg m^?3 in the downstream region of Korea. This suggests that ADAM2 has a great potential for the use of an operational Asian dust forecast model in the Asian domain.  相似文献   

Direct shortwave radiative forcing of the Asian dust aerosol on dust emission     

Soon-Ung Park  Hyun-Ju Ahn  Moon-Soo Park 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,101(1-2):179-190

The physical processes of the feedback mechanism of direct shortwave radiative forcing of the Asian dust aerosol on dust emission has been examined using simulated results with the coupled (with dust shortwave radiative forcing) and the non-coupled model (without dust shortwave radiative forcing) based on the MM5 model and the Asian Dust Aerosol Model on 19 March 2002. The results indicate that a significant dust emission reduction occurs in the high dust concentration (HDC) region of the dust source region whereas an enhanced dust emission appears in the downstream of the dust source region. It is found that Asian dust aerosols raised during the daytime by the strong surface wind cause negative shortwave radiative flux near the surface, which in turn reduces the sensible heat flux causing the cooling of the air, thereby enhancing stable stratification. The dynamic adjustment of the negative radiative flux of the dust induces a positive pressure anomaly over the HDC region and a negative pressure anomaly toward the synoptic low pressure center, resulting in a dipole shape of pressure anomaly field near the surface. The associated secondary circulation of this pressure anomaly together with the reduction of turbulent intensity due to the reduced sensible heat flux reduces the low-level wind speed thereby reducing dust emission in the upstream of the HDC region of the dust source region (Region I), while enhancing the low-level wind speed in the downstream region (Region II), which in turn enhances dust emission. This enhanced dust emission is smaller than the emission reduction in the upstream, resulting in overall dust emission reduction during the daytime.  相似文献   

Dynamics of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Southern Ocean diagnosed from a 2D mixed-layer model     

Frédéric Vivier  Daniele Iudicone  Fabiano Busdraghi  Young-Hyang Park 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(2-3):153-184

We analyze the processes responsible for the generation and evolution of sea-surface temperature anomalies observed in the Southern Ocean during a decade based on a 2D diagnostic mixed-layer model in which geostrophic advection is prescribed from altimetry. Anomalous air–sea heat flux is the dominant term of the heat budget over most of the domain, while anomalous Ekman heat fluxes account for 20–40% of the variance in the latitude band 40°?60°S. In the ACC pathway, lateral fluxes of heat associated with anomalous geostrophic currents are a major contributor, dominating downstream of several topographic features, reflecting the influence of eddies and frontal migrations. A significant fraction of the variability of large-scale SST anomalies is correlated with either ENSO or the SAM, each mode contributing roughly equally. The relation between the heat budget terms and these climate modes is investigated, showing in particular that anomalous Ekman and air–sea heat fluxes have a co-operating effect (with regional exceptions), hence the large SST response associated with each mode. It is further shown that ENSO- or SAM-locked anomalous geostrophic currents generate substantial heat fluxes in all three basins with magnitude comparable with that of atmospheric forcings for ENSO, and smaller for the SAM except for limited areas. ENSO-locked forcings generate SST anomalies along the ACC pathway, and advection by mean flows is found to be a non-negligible contribution to the heat budget, exhibiting a wavenumber two zonal structure, characteristic of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. By contrast SAM-related forcings are predominantly zonally uniform along the ACC, hence smaller zonal SST gradients and a lesser role of mean advection, except in the SouthWest Atlantic. While modeled SST anomalies are significantly correlated with observations over most of the Southern Ocean, the analysis of the data-model discrepancies suggests that vertical ocean physics may play a significant role in the nonseasonal heat budget, especially in some key regions for mode water formation.  相似文献   

Source identification of PM_2.5 particles measured in Gwangju, Korea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hanlim Lee  Seung S. Park  Kyung W. Kim  Young J. Kim   《Atmospheric Research》2008,88(3-4):199-211

The UNMIX and Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) receptor models were used to investigate sources of PM_2.5 aerosols measured between March 2001 and February 2002 in Gwangju, Korea. Measurements of PM_2.5 particles were used for the analysis of carbonaceous species (organic (OC) and elemental carbon (EC)) using the thermal manganese dioxide oxidation (TMO) method, the investigation of seven ionic species using ion chromatography (IC), and the analysis of twenty-four metal species using Inductively Coupled Plasma (ICP)-Atomic Emission Spectrometry (AES)/ICP-Mass Spectrometry (MS). According to annual average PM_2.5 source apportionment results obtained from CMB calculations, diesel vehicle exhaust was the major contributor, accounting for 33.4% of the measured PM_2.5 mass (21.5 μg m^− 3), followed by secondary sulfate (14.6%), meat cooking (11.7%), secondary organic carbon (8.9%), secondary nitrate (7.6%), urban dust (5.5%), Asian dust (4.4%), biomass burning (2.8%), sea salt (2.7%), residual oil combustion (2.6%), gasoline vehicle exhaust (1.9%), automobile lead (0.5%), and components of unknown sources (3.4%). Seven PM_2.5 sources including diesel vehicles (29.6%), secondary sulfate (17.4%), biomass burning (14.7%), secondary nitrate (12.6%), gasoline vehicles (12.4%), secondary organic carbon (5.8%) and Asian dust (1.9%) were identified from the UNMIX analysis. The annual average source apportionment results from the two models are compared and the reasons for differences are qualitatively discussed for better understanding of PM_2.5 sources.Additionally, the impact of air mass pathways on the PM_2.5 mass was evaluated using air mass trajectories calculated with the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) backward trajectory model. Source contributions to PM_2.5 collected during the four air mass patterns and two event periods were calculated with the CMB model and analyzed. Results of source apportionment revealed that the contribution of diesel traffic exhaust (47.0%) in stagnant conditions (S) was much higher than the average contribution of diesel vehicle exhaust (33.4%) during the sampling period. During Asian dust (AD) periods when the air mass passed over the Korean peninsula, Asian dust and secondary organic carbon accounted for 25.2 and 23.0% of the PM_2.5 mass, respectively, whereas Asian dust contributed only 10.8% to the PM_2.5 mass during the AD event when the air mass passed over the Yellow Sea. The contribution of biomass burning to the PM_2.5 mass during the biomass burning (BB) event equaled 63.8%.  相似文献   

Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models     

Emilia K. Jin  James L. Kinter III  B. Wang  C.-K. Park  I.-S. Kang  B. P. Kirtman  J.-S. Kug  A. Kumar  J.-J. Luo  J. Schemm  J. Shukla  T. Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(6):647-664

The overall skill of ENSO prediction in retrospective forecasts made with ten different coupled GCMs is investigated. The coupled GCM datasets of the APCC/CliPAS and DEMETER projects are used for four seasons in the common 22 years from 1980 to 2001. As a baseline, a dynamic-statistical SST forecast and persistence are compared. Our study focuses on the tropical Pacific SST, especially by analyzing the NINO34 index. In coupled models, the accuracy of the simulated variability is related to the accuracy of the simulated mean state. Almost all models have problems in simulating the mean and mean annual cycle of SST, in spite of the positive influence of realistic initial conditions. As a result, the simulation of the interannual SST variability is also far from perfect in most coupled models. With increasing lead time, this discrepancy gets worse. As one measure of forecast skill, the tier-1 multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of NINO3.4 SST have an anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.86 at the month 6. This is higher than that of any individual model as well as both forecasts based on persistence and those made with the dynamic-statistical model. The forecast skill of individual models and the MME depends strongly on season, ENSO phase, and ENSO intensity. A stronger El Niño is better predicted. The growth phases of both the warm and cold events are better predicted than the corresponding decaying phases. ENSO-neutral periods are far worse predicted than warm or cold events. The skill of forecasts that start in February or May drops faster than that of forecasts that start in August or November. This behavior, often termed the spring predictability barrier, is in part because predictions starting from February or May contain more events in the decaying phase of ENSO.  相似文献   

Observational experiment and predictability of high-impact weather     

Dong-Eon Chang  Dong-Kyou Lee  Seon Ki Park 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2010,46(3):231-232

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