Surrogate-based parameter inference in debris flow model     

Maria Navarro  Olivier P. Le Maître  Ibrahim Hoteit  David L. George  Kyle T. Mandli  Omar M. Knio 《Computational Geosciences》2018,22(6):1447-1463

This work tackles the problem of calibrating the unknown parameters of a debris flow model with the drawback that the information regarding the experimental data treatment and processing is not available. In particular, we focus on the evolution over time of the flow thickness of the debris with dam-break initial conditions. The proposed methodology consists of establishing an approximation of the numerical model using a polynomial chaos expansion that is used in place of the original model, saving computational burden. The values of the parameters are then inferred through a Bayesian approach with a particular focus on inference discrepancies that some of the important features predicted by the model exhibit. We build the model approximation using a preconditioned non-intrusive method and show that a suitable prior parameter distribution is critical to the construction of an accurate surrogate model. The results of the Bayesian inference suggest that utilizing directly the available experimental data could lead to incorrect conclusions, including the over-determination of parameters. To avoid such drawbacks, we propose to base the inference on few significant features extracted from the original data. Our experiments confirm the validity of this approach, and show that it does not lead to significant loss of information. It is further computationally more efficient than the direct approach, and can avoid the construction of an elaborate error model.  相似文献   

Amplification of DNA in sediment cores to detect historic Planktothrix occurrence in three Norwegian lakes     

Marcia Kyle  Sigrid Haande  Jørn Sønstebø  Thomas Rohrlack 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2015,53(1):61-72

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Quantifying uncertainties in fault slip distribution during the Tōhoku tsunami using polynomial chaos     

Ihab Sraj  Kyle T. Mandli  Omar M. Knio  Clint N. Dawson  Ibrahim Hoteit 《Ocean Dynamics》2017,67(12):1535-1551

An efficient method for inferring Manning’s n coefficients using water surface elevation data was presented in Sraj et al. (Ocean Modell 83:82–97 2014a) focusing on a test case based on data collected during the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami. Polynomial chaos (PC) expansions were used to build an inexpensive surrogate for the numerical model GeoClaw, which were then used to perform a sensitivity analysis in addition to the inversion. In this paper, a new analysis is performed with the goal of inferring the fault slip distribution of the Tōhoku earthquake using a similar problem setup. The same approach to constructing the PC surrogate did not lead to a converging expansion; however, an alternative approach based on basis pursuit denoising was found to be suitable. Our result shows that the fault slip distribution can be inferred using water surface elevation data whereas the inferred values minimize the error between observations and the numerical model. The numerical approach and the resulting inversion are presented in this work.  相似文献   

Airborne laser swath mapping of the summit of Erebus volcano,Antarctica: Applications to geological mapping of a volcano     

Bea Csatho  Toni Schenk  Philip Kyle  Terry Wilson  William B. Krabill 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

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Differential developmental toxicity of naphthoic acid isomers in medaka (Oryzias latipes) embryos     

Carney MW  Erwin K  Hardman R  Yuen B  Volz DC  Hinton DE  Kullman SW 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,57(6-12):255-266

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widespread persistent pollutants that readily undergo biotic and abiotic conversion to numerous transformation products in rivers, lakes and estuarine sediments. Here we characterize the developmental toxicity of four PAH transformation products each structural isomers of hydroxynaphthoic acid: 1H2NA, 2H1NA, 2H3NA, and 6H2NA. Medaka fish (Oryzias latipes) embryos and eleutheroembryos were used to determine toxicity. A 96-well micro-plate format was used to establish a robust, statistically significant platform for assessment of early life stages. Individual naphthoic acid isomers demonstrated a rank order of toxicity with 1H2NA>2H1NA>2H3NA>6H2NA being more toxic. Abnormalities of circulatory system were most pronounced including pericardial edema and tube heart. To determine if HNA isomers were AhR ligands, spatial-temporal expression and activity of CYP1A was measured via in vivo EROD assessments. qPCR measurement of CYP1A induction proved different between isomers dosed at respective concentrations affecting 50% of exposed individuals (EC50s). In vitro, all ANH isomers transactivated mouse AhR using a medaka CYP1A promoter specific reporter assay. Circulatory abnormalities followed P450 induction and response was consistent with PAH toxicity. A 96-well micro-plates proved suitable as exposure chambers and provided statistically sound evaluations as well as efficient toxicity screens. Our results demonstrate the use of medaka embryos for toxicity analysis thereby achieving REACH objectives for the reduction of adult animal testing in toxicity evaluations.  相似文献   

Multi-instrument remote and in situ observations of the Erebus Volcano (Antarctica) lava lake in 2005: A comparison with the Pele lava lake on the jovian moon Io     

Ashley Gerard Davies  Julie Calkins  Lucas Scharenbroich  R. Greg Vaughan  Robert Wright  Philip Kyle  Rebecca Castańo  Steve Chien  Daniel Tran 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

The stable, persistent, active lava lake at Erebus volcano (Ross Island, Antarctica) provides an excellent thermal target for analysis of spacecraft observations, and for testing new technology. In the austral summer of 2005 visible and infrared observations of the Erebus lava lake were obtained with sensors on three space vehicles Terra (ASTER, MODIS), Aqua (MODIS) and EO-1 (Hyperion, ALI). Contemporaneous ground-based observations were obtained with hand-held infrared cameras. This allowed a quantitative comparison of the thermal data obtained from different instruments, and of the analytical techniques used to analyze the data, both with and without the constraints imposed by ground-truth. From the thermal camera data, in December 2005 the main Erebus lava lake (Ray Lake) had an area of ≈ 820 m². Surface colour temperatures ranged from 575 K to 1090 K, with a broad peak in the distribution from 730 K to 850 K. Total heat loss was estimated at 23.5 MW. The flux density was ≈ 29 kW m^− 2. Mass flux was estimated at 64 to 93 kg s^− 1. The best correlation between thermal emission and emitting area was obtained with ASTER, which has the best combination of spatial resolution and wavelength coverage, especially in the thermal infrared. The high surface temperature of the lava lake means that Hyperion data are for the most part saturated. Uncertainties, introduced by the need to remove incident sunlight cause the thermal emission from the Hyperion data to be a factor of about two greater than that measured by hand-held thermal camera. MODIS also over-estimated thermal output from the lava lake by the same factor of two because it was detecting reflected sunlight from the rest of the pixel area. The measurement of the detailed temperature distribution on the surface of an active terrestrial lava lake will allow testing of thermal emission models used to interpret remote-sensing data of volcanism on Io, where no such ground-truth exists. Although the Erebus lava lake is four orders of magnitude smaller than the lava lake at Pele on Io, the shape of the integrated thermal emission spectra are similar. Thermal emission from this style of effusive volcanism appears to be invariant. Excess thermal emission in most Pele spectra (compared to Erebus) at short wavelengths (< 3 μm) is most likely due to disruption of the surface on the lava lake by escaping volatiles.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and mineralogy of the phonolite lava lake,Erebus volcano,Antarctica: 1972–2004 and comparison with older lavas     

Peter J. Kelly  Philip R. Kyle  Nelia W. Dunbar  Kenneth W.W. Sims 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Mount Erebus, Antarctica, is a large (3794 m) alkaline open-conduit stratovolcano that hosts a vigorously convecting and persistently degassing lake of anorthoclase phonolite magma. The composition of the lake was investigated by analyzing glass and mineral compositions in lava bombs erupted between 1972 and 2004. Matrix glass, titanomagnetite, olivine, clinopyroxene, and fluor-apatite compositions are invariant and show that the magmatic temperature (∼ 1000°C) and oxygen fugacity (ΔlogFMQ = − 0.9) have been stable. Large temperature variations at the lake surface (~ 400–500°C) are not reflected in mineral compositions. Anorthoclase phenocrysts up to 10 cm in length feature a restricted compositional range (An_10.3–22.9Ab_62.8–68.1Or_11.4–27.2) with complex textural and compositional zoning. Anorthoclase textures and compositions indicate crystallization occurs at low degrees of effective undercooling. We propose shallow water exsolution causes crystallization and shallow convection cycles the anorthoclase crystals through many episodes of growth resulting in their exceptional size. Minor variations in eruptive activity from 1972 to 2004 are decoupled from magma compositions. The variations probably relate to changes in conduit geometry within the volcano and/or variable input of CO₂-rich volatiles into the upper-level magma chamber from deeper in the system.  相似文献   

Sulfur dioxide emissions and degassing behavior of Erebus volcano,Antarctica     

Dawn Sweeney  Philip R. Kyle  Clive Oppenheimer 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Emission rates of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) were measured at Erebus volcano, Antarctica in December between 1992 and 2005. Since 1992 SO₂ emissions rates are normally distributed with a mean of 61 ± 27 Mg d^− 1 (0.7 ± 0.3 kg s^− 1) (n = 8064). The emission rates vary over minutes, hours, days and years. Hourly and daily variations often show systematic and cyclic trends. Long-wavelength, large amplitude trends appear related to lava lake area and both are likely controlled by processes occurring at depth. Time series analysis of continuous sequences of measurements obtained over periods of several hours reveals periodicity in SO₂ output ranging from 10 to 360 min, with a 10 min cycle being the most dominant. Closed and open-system degassing models are considered to explain observed variable degassing rates. Closed-system degassing is possible as rheological stiffening and stick/slip may occur within the system. However, the timescales represented in these models do not fit observations made on Erebus. Open-system degassing and convection fits the observations collected as the presented models were developed for a system similar to Erebus in terms of degassing, eruptive activity and process repose time. We show that with the observed emission rate (0.71 kg s^− 1) and a crystal content of 30%, magma will cool 65 °C to match observed heat fluxes; this cooling is sufficient enough to drive convection.  相似文献   

Englacial tephrostratigraphy of Erebus volcano,Antarctica     

C.J. Harpel  P.R. Kyle  N.W. Dunbar 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

A tephrostratigraphy for Erebus volcano is presented, including tephra composition, stratigraphy, and eruption mechanism. Tephra from Erebus were collected from glacial ice and firn. Scanning electron microscope images of the ash morphologies help determine their eruption mechanisms The tephra resulted mainly from phreatomagmatic eruptions with fewer from Strombolian eruptions. Tephra having mixed phreatomagmatic–Strombolian origins are common. Two tephra deposited on the East Antarctic ice sheet, ~ 200 km from Erebus, resulted from Plinian and phreatomagmatic eruptions. Glass droplets in some tephra indicate that these shards were produced in both phreatomagmatic and Strombolian eruptions. A budding ash morphology results from small spheres quenched during the process of hydrodynamically splitting off from a parent melt globule. Clustered and rare single xenocrystic analcime crystals, undifferentiated zeolites, and clay are likely accidental clasts entrained from a hydrothermal system present prior to eruption. The phonolite compositions of glass shards confirm Erebus volcano as the eruptive source. The glasses show subtle trends in composition, which correlate with stratigraphic position. Trace element analyses of bulk tephra samples show slight differences that reflect varying feldspar contents.  相似文献   

Novel mass-aggregation-based calibration of an acoustic method of monitoring bedload flux by infrequent desert flash floods     

Eran Halfi  Dror Paz  Kyle Stark  Uri Yogev  Ian Reid  Michael Dorman  Jonathan B. Laronne 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(14):3510-3524

The monitoring of bedload flux under flash flood conditions has been successfully achieved since 1992 using slot samplers in the semiarid Nahal Eshtemoa. In the present study, a surrogate bedload monitoring technique - the Japanese plate microphone - has been deployed and calibrated against data from the slot samplers. Since a slot sampler has a sensitivity threshold that becomes especially important when transport rates are low, different averaging periods should be considered for high and low fluxes. In order to overcome the deficiencies of time-based aggregation used hitherto, we have developed a new method involving mass aggregation and commensurably variable intervals, thereby enabling a more accurate analysis and optimizing the bedload sampler's capabilities. The data derived with this new method has then been utilized to calibrate the Japanese plate microphone. The Eshtemoa is an ephemeral gravel bed channel with a high proportion of fine gravel (< 0.02 m); for these conditions, acoustic sensors have not been calibrated as yet. Two multiple linear regression models incorporating the effect of median bedload grain size on pulse rate have been established to predict bedload flux and cumulative transported bedload mass. The coefficients in these models are statistically significant. Good predictions are obtained for bedload flux (adj. r² = 0.83) and for cumulative bedload mass (adj. r² = 0.98) during flood recession. Overall, the multiple linear regression models, used in conjunction with the mass aggregation method of estimating bedload flux, suggest that field calibration of acoustic devices is feasible under these conditions for ca. 90% of the duration of bedload transport. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献