Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Yanqiong Xie  Fengsi Wei  Xueshang Feng  Dingkun Zhong 《Solar physics》2006,234(2):363-377

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.  相似文献   

γ射线暴的logN(>P)～logP分布     

吴枚  宋黎明  余文飞  李惕碚  李毅 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1997,(1)

本文用简单的宇宙学模型 ,在标准烛光和均匀分布的假设下计算了γ射线暴的logN(>P)～logP分布 (大小谱 ) .在考虑了探测效率修正和死时间修正后 ,由宇宙学模型计算的理论结果和BATSE实测的大小谱没有显著的偏离  相似文献   

Isotopic evidence for holocene climatic changes in Bosten Lake, Southern Xinjiang, China     

Zhong Wei  Xiong Heigang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1997,8(2):176-182

Based on the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO₃ content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and CaCO₃ appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ¹⁸O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ¹³C, pollen and CaCO₃ analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P. −5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.  相似文献   

北部湾北部海上油田发现历程     

钟铿  潘其云 《南方国土资源》1997,(2)

北部湾北部海上油田的开发工作始于５０年代，６０～７０年代作了大量地质工作。改革开放后，油气勘查取得突破性进展。累计发现油气构造６个，含油面积超过４０ｋｍ２，石油地质储量约４亿ｔ，已开发油田２个，揭开我国南方油气资源开发序幕  相似文献   

居民收入与通信网络市场经济效益研究--以河北省通信网络为实例     

刘江林  李应良  石宏宇 《成都信息工程学院学报》2005,20(6):662-666

利用Logisitic曲线模型和扩展支撑模型对居民可支配收入预测和单项消费预测，以河北省居民的收入及其消费支出为实例，研究了城镇居民和农民的可支配收入分配和单项边际消费倾向，合理建立了预测模型，并理论计算了1999～2003年的通信消费方面的边际消费倾向、预测了2004～2008年通信消费情况。最后，根据预测结果对通信网络建设提出了一些有价值的建议。  相似文献   

基于J2EE架构的企业卡资源管理系统的设计与实现     

任建豪  李成忠 《成都信息工程学院学报》2005,20(5):566-570

介绍了J2EE架构和多层体系结构的发展，在B／S三层架构的基础上给出了包含应用服务器中间件的多层分布式应用体系结构，并把此体系结构应用于电信氽业的有价卡管理系统项目中。分析了此项同的功能结构和体系结构，采用J2EE开发平台和技术设计实现了由浏览器、Web服务器、应用服务器、数据库服务器组成的多层体系架构。  相似文献   

蛤蜊科3种贝类16SrRNA基因片段及ITS2核苷酸序列分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

孟学平高如承  董志国阎斌伦程汉良  李艳杰陈建安 《广东海洋大学学报》2006,26(4):8-13

利用PCR技术分别扩增连云港及启东沿海蛤蜊科的西施舌（Coelomactra antiquata）、中国蛤蜊（Mactra chinensis）和四角蛤蜊（Mactra veneriformis）3种双壳贝的16SrRNA基因片段和ITS2核苷酸序列．测序后用DNAstar软件分析了核苷酸差异。结果显示：三种贝类16SrRNA基因片段长度相同，均为306bp（去除引物）．核苷酸存在多态性。共有45个变异位点，54个核苷酸发生了变异。全部为碱基置换。西施舌与中国蛤蜊此片段核苷酸的同源性为88．9％．与四角蛤蜊的同源性为88．6％．中国蛤蜊与四角蛤蜊的同源性为90．6％。三种蛤蜊ITS2序列分别为390bp（西施舌）、441bp（四角蛤蜊）和466bp（中国蛤蜊）。存在长度多态性．ITS2核苷酸差异分析结果显示．西施舌与中国蛤蜊的同源性为70．9％-71．1％，西施舌与四角蛤蜊的为70．5％-71．0％。中国蛤蜊与四角蛤蜊的同源性为88．1％-88．8％。ITS2序列分析结果与16SrRNA基因片段分析结果一致．2种分子分析法均显示中国蛤蜊与四角蛤蜊的亲缘关系近。  相似文献   

海岩小说的几种叙述模式及弊端     

姚国军  李霞 《广东海洋大学学报》2006,26(5):87-90

海岩的长篇小说《河流如血》再创出版高记录，但作家仍局限于特有的小说叙述模式，这部作品设能做到相应的创新。概言之，模式第一面是“刑侦＋恋爱”；模式第二面是“财子＋佳人”；模式第三面是“道德＋法制”。文学创作需要不断创新，创新的过程也是对创作模式的不断突破过程。作家应该警惕的是，不要让模式成为创作的桎梏。  相似文献   

胶东“玲珑-焦家式”金矿资源潜力与找矿   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李士先  王建收 《山东国土资源》2006,22(12):36-41

“玲珑焦家式”金矿的成岩成矿,从新太古代至中生代存在着继承性的成因关系,成矿具有长期性、多源性特点,但中生代燕山早期岩浆活动是主导成矿因素。区域化探成果显示胶东金矿直接矿源岩———郭家岭花岗岩金的丰度比原始矿源岩———早前寒武纪变质沉积岩系及侵入岩系金的丰度低1/2。郭家岭花岗岩面积在2 km2以上岩体定量估计金亏损总量与胶东金矿总量预测的资源量相当,从一个侧面展现了胶东金矿资源的潜力。望儿山金矿的找矿实践展示,焦家式金矿在1 000 m以下尚有巨大潜力,整个胶东金矿产区在3 000 m以上的资源潜力应在5000 t以上。  相似文献   

彗星等离子体某些特征的讨论     

李中元  李嘉巍  段素平  陈耀  石志东 《紫金山天文台台刊》2003,(1)

本文讨论了彗星中尘埃粒子的充电机制 ,带电特性和平衡电势的变化规律 ,分析了彗星尘埃的破碎特性和临界半径 ,得出了很有意义的结果  相似文献