Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jose A. Marengo  Tercio Ambrizzi  Rosmeri P. da Rocha  Lincoln M. Alves  Santiago V. Cuadra  Maria C. Valverde  Roger R. Torres  Daniel C. Santos  Simone E. T. Ferraz 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(6):1073-1097

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.  相似文献   

Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Harry F. Lee  Lincoln Fok  David D. Zhang 《Climatic change》2008,88(2):131-156

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.  相似文献   

Uncertainty analysis and probabilistic segmentation of electrical resistivity images: the 2D inverse problem          下载免费PDF全文

Juan Luis Fernández‐Martínez  Shan Xu  Colette Sirieix  Zulima Fernández‐Muniz  Joëlle Riss 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(Z1):112-130

In this paper, we present the uncertainty analysis of the 2D electrical tomography inverse problem using model reduction and performing the sampling via an explorative member of the Particle Swarm Optimization family, called the Regressive‐Regressive Particle Swarm Optimization. The procedure begins with a local inversion to find a good resistivity model located in the nonlinear equivalence region of the set of plausible solutions. The dimension of this geophysical model is then reduced using spectral decomposition, and the uncertainty space is explored via Particle Swarm Optimization. Using this approach, we show that it is possible to sample the uncertainty space of the electrical tomography inverse problem. We illustrate this methodology with the application to a synthetic and a real dataset coming from a karstic geological set‐up. By computing the uncertainty of the inverse solution, it is possible to perform the segmentation of the resistivity images issued from inversion. This segmentation is based on the set of equivalent models that have been sampled, and makes it possible to answer geophysical questions in a probabilistic way, performing risk analysis.  相似文献   

CryoSheds: a GIS modeling framework for delineating land-ice watersheds for the Greenland Ice Sheet     

Lincoln H Pitcher  Laurence C. Smith  Colin J. Gleason  Kang Yang 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2016,53(6):707-722

Choice of watershed delineation technique is an important source of uncertainty for cryo-hydrologic studies of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), with different methods yielding different watersheds for a common pour point. First, this paper explores this uncertainty for the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River Northern Tributary, Western Greenland. Next, a standardized, semi-automated modeling framework for generating land-ice watersheds for GrIS land-terminating ice (henceforth referred to as CryoSheds) using geographic information systems (GIS) hydrologic modeling tools is presented. The framework uses ArcGIS and the ArcPy geoprocessing library to delineate two types of land-ice watersheds, namely those defined by: (1) a hydraulic pressure potential with varying water to ice overburden pressure ratios (k-value), which determines theoretical flow paths from the hydrostatic equation, using surface and bedrock digital elevation models (DEMs) and (2) a surface topography DEM alone. Lastly, a demonstration of the CryoSheds method is presented for seven remotely sensed proglacial pour points along the Aussivigssuit River (AR), Western Greenland, and its largest tributaries. GrIS meltwater runoff from these seven nested land-ice watersheds is estimated using Modele Atmospherique Regional (MAR) v.3.2 and runoff uncertainties due to watershed delineation parameter selection is estimated.  相似文献   

Introduction to advances in seafloor mapping using sidescan sonar and multibeam bathymetry data     

Lincoln F. Pratson  Margo H. Edwards 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1996,18(6):601-605

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Persistence of yessotoxin under light and dark conditions     

Mitrovic SM  Hamilton B  McKenzie L  Furey A  James KJ 《Marine environmental research》2005,60(3):397-401

The change in concentration of the disulfated polyether yessotoxin (YTX) produced by a culture of the marine dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum was measured in laboratory experiments under light and dark conditions. Experimental cultures were inoculated and grew at a growth rate of 0.14 d(-1) until stationary phase was reached, after approximately 21 days. Cultures were maintained in the stationary phase until 31 days after inoculation. Cells of P. reticulatum contained a concentration of approximately 10-15 pg YTX cell(-1) during stationary phase but this was considerably lower (<5 pg cell-1) during the growth phase. Low amounts of 45-hydroxy-YTX were also detected. At day 32, P. reticulatum was killed by cooling to 1 degrees C (confirmed microscopically) and YTX concentrations were measured periodically under light and dark conditions. YTX concentrations decreased rapidly to approximately 10% of the initial concentration within the first 3 days and depleted to near zero within a week in the light treatment. In the dark environment, YTX persisted longer with approximately 10% of the initial YTX concentration still remaining after 18 days.  相似文献   

Trace metals and organic compounds in the benthic environment of a subtropical embayment (Ubatuba Bay, Brazil)     

Muniz P  Pires-Vanin AM  Martins CC  Montone RC  Bícego MC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(9):1098-1105

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Role of melt during deformation in the deep crust   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cameron Davidson  Stefan M. Schmid  Lincoln S. Hollister 《地学学报》1994,6(2):133-142

Deformation in the deep crust is strongly influenced by the presence of melt. Injected melt (or magma) weakens the crust because strain will tend to localize where melt is present. The amount of strain a pluton may accommodate is dependent on the length of time it takes for a pluton to crystallize and the strain rate. For plutons that intrude into rocks which are near the solidus temperature of the melt, crystallization times can be quite long (> 1Myr).
Partial melting of deep crustal rocks can lead to melt-enhanced embrittlement. This occurs because the volume change for most melting reactions is positive. Therefore, when the rate of melt production outpaces the rate at which melt can leave the system, the melt pressure increases. Eventually, the melt pressure may become sufficiently high that the melting rocks behave in a brittle fashion and fracture.
Conjugate sets of dilatant shear fractures filled with melt occur in migmatite from the Central Gneiss belt (Canada); this suggests that melt-enhanced embrittlement occurred in these rocks. An expression which relates the magnitude of differential stress to the angle between conjugate dilatant shear fractures is derived. Assuming that migmatite has a small tensile strength, differential stresses are ≤ 20 MPa in migmatitic rocks at the time melt-enhanced embrittlement occurs. The occurrence of melt-enhanced embrittlement shows that a switch in deformation mechanism from plastic flow to cataclasis is possible in the deep crust during melting. Furthermore, repeated episodes of melt-enhanced embrittlement in migmatitic rocks may be an efficient mechanism for extracting melt from partially melted terrains.  相似文献   

Testing the applicability of a Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) to assessing the ecological quality of soft-bottom benthic communities, in the South America Atlantic region   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Muniz P  Venturini N  Pires-Vanin AM  Tommasi LR  Borja A 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(6):624-637

Recently, several monitoring programmes have been undertaken to evaluate the impact of different anthropogenic activities, upon a range of coastal ecosystems located in the South-western Atlantic. In the present contribution, the applicability of the AZTI's Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) is tested, to establish the benthic health of the ecosystem using these data sets. As the AMBI was created previously for use in European estuarine and coastal environments, its general applicability to new geographical locations is discussed. In general, the results are in agreement with those obtained using traditional univariate and multivariate methods. Some inconsistent results are observed, when low abundances and/or number of taxa are recorded in the samples. Moreover, when the macrofauna samples are dominated by large nematodes, the classification of the benthic ecosystem health using AMBI is not consistent with previous results achieved applying other statistical techniques. Thus, parallel to the application of this index to a wider extend, the complementary use of different indices and/or methods is recommended to assess confidently the environmental quality of a coastal area.  相似文献   

Macrofossil evidence of alder (Alnus sp.) in Britain early in the Late Glacial Interstadial: implications for the northern cryptic refugia debate     

D. S. Young  C. P. Green  C. R. Batchelor  P. Austin  S. A. Elias  J. Athersuch  P. Lincoln 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(1):40-55

Wood macrofossil remains of alder and willow/poplar have been recovered from a sediment sequence in the valley of the Turker Beck in the Vale of Mowbray, North Yorkshire. These remains have yielded radiocarbon dates early in the Devensian Late Glacial (14.7–14k cal a bp ), equivalent to the early part of the Greenland Interstadial (GI-1e) of the GRIP ice-core record. These are the earliest dates recorded for the presence of alder in the Late Glacial in the British Isles. Associated biological remains have provided a palaeoenvironmental record for this early part of the Greenland Interstadial, generally indicative of open environments dominated by herbaceous taxa on both the wetland and dryland surfaces. However, stands of alder, birch and willow woodland were also present, and indicate the possibility that such tree species survived in cryptic refugia in Britain as elsewhere in northern Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum. The absence of alder pollen at Turker Beck, in a sequence in which its macrofossil remains are relatively abundant, lends support to the view that pollen can be a poor indicator of the presence of tree species in Late Glacial sequences in northern and western Europe.  相似文献