Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment     

Edward A. Parson  Robert W. Corell  Eric J. Barron  Virginia Burkett  Anthony Janetos  Linda Joyce  Thomas R. Karl  Michael C. MacCracken  Jerry Melillo  M. Granger Morgan  David S. Schimel  Thomas Wilbanks 《Climatic change》2003,57(1-2):9-42

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.  相似文献   

Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Karen O'Brien  Linda Sygna  Jan Erik Haugen 《Climatic change》2004,64(1-2):193-225

This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multi-scale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research.  相似文献   

Tectonics and metallogenesis of Proterozoic rocks of the Reading Prong     

Linda C. S. Gundersen 《Journal of Geodynamics》2004,37(3-5):361

Detailed geologic mapping, petrography, and major and trace-element analyses of Proterozoic rocks from the Greenwood Lake Quadrangle, New York are compared with chemical analyses and stratigraphic information compiled for the entire Reading Prong. A persistent regional stratigraphy is evident in the mapped area whose geochemistry indicates protoliths consistent with a back-arc marginal basin sequence. The proposed marginal basin may have been floored by an older sialic basement and overlain by a basin-fill sequence consisting of a basal tholeiitic basalt, basic to intermediate volcanic or volcaniclastic rocks and carbonate sediments, a bimodal calc-alkaline volcanic sequence, and finally volcaniclastic, marine, and continental sediments. The presence of high-chlorine biotite and scapolite may indicate circulation of brine fluids or the presence of evaporite layers in the sequence. Abundant, stratabound magnetite deposits with a geologic setting very unlike that of cratonic, Proterozoic banded-iron formations are found throughout the proposed basin sequence. Associated with many of the magnetite deposits is unusual uranium and rare-earth element mineralization. It is proposed here that these deposits formed in an exhalative, volcanogenic, depositional environment within an extensional back-arc marginal basin. Such a tectonic setting is consistent with interpretations of protoliths in other portions of the Reading Prong, the Central Metasedimentary Belt of the Canadian Grenville Province, and recent interpretation of the origin of the Franklin lead-zinc deposits, suggesting a more cohesive evolving arc/back-arc tectonic model for the entire Proterozoic margin of the north-eastern portion of the North American craton.  相似文献   

Magmatic effects of the lunar late heavy bombardment     

Linda T Elkins-Tanton 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2004,222(1):17-27

Large volumes of mare basalts are present on the surface of the moon, located preferentially in large impact basins. Mechanisms relating impact basins and mare basalt eruptions have previously been suggested: lunar impacts removed low-density material that may have inhibited eruption, and created cracks for fluid flow [Icarus 139 (1999) 246], and lunar basins have long been described as catchments for magma (e.g., [Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 18 (1980) 107] and references therein). We present a new model for melt creation under near side lunar basins that is triggered by the impacts themselves. Magma can be produced in two stages. First, crater excavation depressurizes underlying material such that it may melt in-situ. Second, the cratered lithosphere rises isostatically, warping isotherms at the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary which may initiate convection, in which adiabatic melting can occur. The first stage produces by far the largest volume of melt, but convective melting can continue for up to 350 Ma. We propose that giant impacts account for a large portion of the volume and longevity of mare basalt volcanism, as well as for several compositional groups, including high alumina, high titanium, KREEP-rich, and picritic magmas.  相似文献   

Organic matter in small mesopores in sediments and soils   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lawrence M. Mayer  Linda L. Schick  Rota Wagai 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2004,68(19):3863-3872

The three-way correlation among organic matter concentrations, specific surface area and small mesopores observed for many soils and sediments led to the hypothesis that enclosure within the pores might explain the apparent protection of organic matter by minerals. We test this hypothesis by examining whether the bulk of organic matter resides within small mesopores. Pore volumes as a function of pore width were measured before and after organic matter removal, and the volume differences ascribed to organic matter filling of pores. Minor changes in small mesopore size distributions upon treatments such as centrifugation and muffling indicate the robustness of the mineral matrices that form these pores. We developed an additional method to assess organic matter densities using high-resolution pycnometry, and used these densities to convert pore volumes to organic matter contents. Although smaller mesopores are shown to have sufficient volumes to contain significant fractions of the total organic matter, only small fractions of total organic matter were found to reside in them. These results are consistent with preferential association between organic matter and aluminous clay particle edges, rather than the largely siliceous clay faces that contribute most surface area and form pore walls. While simple enclosure within smaller mesopores cannot, therefore, explain protection, network effects working at larger size scales may account for exclusion of digestive agents and hence organic matter protection.  相似文献   

Predicting small business demise after a natural disaster: an analysis of pre-existing conditions     

Maria I. Marshall  Linda S. Niehm  Sandra B. Sydnor  Holly L. Schrank 《Natural Hazards》2015,79(1):331-354

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Mud volcanoes and evaporite seismites in a tidal flat of northern Kuwait—implications for fluid flow in sabkhas of the Persian (Arabian) Gulf     

Michael J. Duane  Linda Reinink-Smith  Christopher Eastoe  Ali T. Al-Mishwat 《Geo-Marine Letters》2015,35(3):237-246

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Assessing quality of volunteer crowdsourcing contributions: lessons from the Cropland Capture game   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Carl F. Salk  Tobias Sturn  Linda See  Steffen Fritz  Christoph Perger 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2016,9(4):410-426

Volunteered geographic information (VGI) is the assembly of spatial information based on public input. While VGI has proliferated in recent years, assessing the quality of volunteer-contributed data has proven challenging, leading some to question the efficiency of such programs. In this paper, we compare several quality metrics for individual volunteers’ contributions. The data were the product of the ‘Cropland Capture’ game, in which several thousand volunteers assessed 165,000 images for the presence of cropland over the course of 6 months. We compared agreement between volunteer ratings and an image's majority classification with volunteer self-agreement on repeated images and expert evaluations. We also examined the impact of experience and learning on performance. Volunteer self-agreement was nearly always higher than agreement with majority classifications, and much greater than agreement with expert validations although these metrics were all positively correlated. Volunteer quality showed a broad trend toward improvement with experience, but the highest accuracies were achieved by a handful of moderately active contributors, not the most active volunteers. Our results emphasize the importance of a universal set of expert-validated tasks as a gold standard for evaluating VGI quality.  相似文献   

Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models     

Esther Salazar  Dorit Hammerling  Xia Wang  Bruno Sansó  Andrew O. Finley  Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.  相似文献   

Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling     

Daniel Wallach  Linda O. Mearns  Alex C. Ruane  Reimund P. Rötter  Senthold Asseng 《Climatic change》2016,138(3-4):551-566

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