Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

L. O. Mearns  S. Sain  L. R. Leung  M. S. Bukovsky  S. McGinnis  S. Biner  D. Caya  R. W. Arritt  W. Gutowski  E. Takle  M. Snyder  R. G. Jones  A. M. B. Nunes  S. Tucker  D. Herzmann  L. McDaniel  L. Sloan 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):965-975

We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.  相似文献   

An estimate of the water storage contribution to the excitation of polar motion   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Linda A. Hinnov  Clark R. Wilson 《Geophysical Journal International》1987,88(2):437-459

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An analytic method to determine future close approaches between satellites   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Felix R. Hoots  Linda L. Crawford  Ronald L. Roehrich 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1984,33(2):143-158

The calculation of the times of future close approaches between pairs of satellites has been formulated using analytical techniques. The resulting analytical equations are solved using numerical iterative techniques similar to solving Kepler's equation. A solution is obtained in a very efficient manner by use of a series of prefilters which eliminate many cases from further consideration. The method is valid for all values of eccentricities less than one and all relative geometries between the two orbits. This approach produces results in a very efficient and reliable manner.  相似文献   

Matching solute breakthrough with deterministic and stochastic aquifer models     

Lemke LD  Barrack WA  Abriola LM  Goovaerts P 《Ground water》2004,42(6-7):920-934

Two different deterministic and two alternative stochastic (i.e., geostatistical) approaches to modeling the distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) in a nonuniform (sigma2ln(K)) = 0.29) glacial sand aquifer were used to explore the influence of conceptual model selection on simulations of three-dimensional tracer movement. The deterministic K models employed included a homogeneous effective K and a perfectly stratified 14 layer model. Stochastic K models were constructed using sequential Gaussian simulation and sequential i ndicator simulation conditioned to available K values estimated from measured grain size distributions. Standard simulation software packages MODFLOW, MT3DMS, and MODPATH were used to model three-dimensional ground water flow and transport in a field tracer test, where a pulse of bromide was injected through an array of three fully screened wells and extracted through a single fully screened well approximately 8 m away. Agreement between observed and simulated transport behavior was assessed through direct comparison of breakthrough curves (BTCs) and selected breakthrough metrics at the extraction well and at 26 individual multilevel sample ports distributed irregularly between the injection and extraction wells. Results indicate that conceptual models incorporating formation variability are better able to capture observed breakthrough behavior. Root mean square (RMS) error of the deterministic models bracketed the ensemble mean RMS error of stochastic models for simulated concentration vs. time series, but not for individual BTC characteristic metrics. The spatial variability models evaluated here may be better suited to simulating breakthrough behavior measured in wells screened over large intervals than at arbitrarily distributed observation points within a nonuniform aquifer domain.  相似文献   

Geochemistry of coral from Papua New Guinea as a proxy for ENSO ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Warm Pool     

Linda K. Ayliffe  Michael I. Bird  Michael K. Gagan  Peter J. Isdale  Heather Scott-Gagan  Bruce Parker  David Griffin  Michael Nongkas  Malcolm T. McCulloch 《Continental Shelf Research》2004,24(19):2343-2356

A Porites sp. coral growing offshore from the Sepik and Ramu Rivers in equatorial northern Papua New Guinea has yielded an accurate 20-year history (1977–1996) of sea surface temperature (SST), river discharge, and wind-induced mixing of the upper water column. Depressions in average SSTs of about 0.5–1.0 °C (indicated by coral Sr/Ca) and markedly diminished freshwater runoff to the coastal ocean (indicated by coral δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and UV fluorescence) are evident during the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1982–1983, 1987 and 1991-1993. The perturbations recorded by the coral are in good agreement with changes in instrumental SST and river discharge/precipitation records, which are known to be diagnostic of the response of the Pacific Warm Pool ocean–atmosphere system to El Niño. Consideration of coastal ocean dynamics indicates that the establishment of northwest monsoon winds promotes mixing of near-surface waters to greater depths in the first quarter of most years, making the coral record sensitive to changes in the Asian–Australian monsoon cycle. Sudden cooling of SSTs by 1°C following westerly wind episodes, as indicated by the coral Sr/Ca, is consistent with greater mixing in the upper water column at these times. Furthermore, the coral UV fluorescence and oxygen isotope data indicate minimal contribution of river runoff to surface ocean waters at the beginning of most years, during the time of maximum discharge. This abrupt shift in flood-plume behaviour appears to reflect the duration and magnitude of northwest monsoon winds, which tend to disperse flood plume waters to a greater extent in the water column when wind-mixing is enhanced. Our results suggest that a multi-proxy geochemical approach to the production of long coral records should provide comprehensive reconstructions of tropical paleoclimate processes operating on interannual timescales.  相似文献   

The impact of extreme heat on morbidity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin     

Bo Li  Steve Sain  Linda O. Mearns  Henry A. Anderson  Sari Kovats  Kristie L. Ebi  Marni Y. V. Bekkedal  Marty S. Kanarek  Jonathan A. Patz 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):959-976

Given predictions of increased intensity and frequency of heat waves, it is important to study the effect of high temperatures on human mortality and morbidity. Many studies focus on heat wave-related mortality; however, heat-related morbidity is often overlooked. The goals of this study are to examine the historical observed relationship between temperature and morbidity (illness), and explore the extent to which observed historical relationships could be used to generate future projections of morbidity under climate change. We collected meteorological, air pollution, and hospital admissions data in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the years 1989–2005, and employed a generalized additive model (GAM) to quantify the relationship between morbidity (as measured by hospital admissions) and high temperatures with adjustment for the effects of potential confounders. We also estimated temperature threshold values for different causes of hospital admissions and then quantified the associated percent increase of admissions per degree above the threshold. Finally, the future impact of higher temperatures on admissions for the years 2059–2075 was examined. Our results show that five causes of admission (endocrine, genitourinary, renal, accidental, and self-harm) and three age groups (15–64, 75–84, >85 years) were affected by high temperatures. Future projections indicate a larger number of days above the current temperature threshold leading to an increase in admissions. Our results indicate that climate change may increase heat-related hospital admissions in the US urban mid-West and that health systems should include heat wave planning.  相似文献   

Expanding the application of the Eu‐oxybarometer to the lherzolitic shergottites and nakhlites: Implications for the oxidation state heterogeneity of the Martian interior     

Molly C. McCANTA  Linda ELKINS‐TANTON  Malcolm J. RUTHERFORD 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(5):725-745

Abstract— Experimentally rehomogenized melt inclusions from the nakhlite Miller Range 03346 (MIL 03346) and the lherzolitic shergottite Allan Hills 77005 (ALH 77005) have been analyzed for their rare earth element (REE) concentrations in order to characterize the early melt compositions of these Martian meteorites and to calculate the oxygen fugacity conditions they crystallized under. D(Eu/Sm)_{pyroxene/melt} values were measured at 0.77 and 1.05 for ALH 77005 and MIL 03346, respectively. These melts and their associated whole rock compositions have similar REE patterns, suggesting that whole rock REE values are representative of those of the early melts and can be used as input into the pyroxene Eu‐oxybarometer for the nakhlites and lherzolitic shergottites. Crystallization fO₂ values of IW + 1.1 (ALH 77005) and IW + 3.2 (MIL 03346) were calculated. Whole rock data from other nakhlites and lherzolitic shergottites was input into the Eu‐oxybarometer to determine their crystallization fO₂ values. The lherzolitic shergottites and nakhlites have fO₂ values that range from IW + 0.4 to 1.6 and from IW + 1.1 to 3.2, respectively. These values are consistent with some previously determined fO₂ estimates and expand the known range of fO₂ values of the Martian interior to four orders of magnitude. The origins of this range are not well constrained. Possible mechanisms for producing this spread in fO₂ values include mineral/melt fractionation, assimilation, shock effects, and magma ocean crystallization processes. Mineral/melt partitioning can result in changes in fO₂ from the start to the finish of crystallization of 2 orders of magnitude. In addition, crystallization of a Martian magma ocean with reasonable initial water content results in oxidized, water‐rich, late‐stage cumulates. Sampling of these oxidized cumulates or interactions between reduced melts and the oxidized material can potentially account for the range of fO₂ values observed in the Martian meteorites.  相似文献   

Composition and spatial structure of dwarf shrub heath in Norway     

Linda Aune-Lundberg  Geir-Harald Strand 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2017,71(1):1-11

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Changes in the rainfall–streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy     

Pieri  Linda  Rondini  Davide  Ventura  Francesca 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):1075-1087

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on...  相似文献   

Geomorphology, Stratigraphy, and Radiocarbon Chronology of LlanquihueDrift in the Area of the Southern Lake District, Seno Reloncaví, and Isla Grande de Chiloé, Chile     

G.H. Denton  T.V. Lowell  C.J. Heusser  C. Schlüchter  B.G. Andersen  Linda E. Heusser  P.I. Moreno  & D.R. Marchant 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》1999,81(2):167-229

Glacial geomorphologic features composed of (or cut into) Llanquihue drift delineate former Andean piedmont glaciers in the region of the southern Chilean Lake District, Seno Reloncav', Golfo de Ancud, and northern Golfo Corcovado during the last glaciation. These landforms include extensive moraine belts, main and subsidiary outwash plains, kame terraces, and meltwater spillways. Numerous radiocarbon dates document Andean ice advances into the moraine belts during the last glacial maximum (LGM) at 29,363–29,385 ¹⁴C yr BP , 26,797 ¹⁴C yr BP , 22,295–22,570 ¹⁴C yr BP , and 14,805–14,869 ¹⁴C yr BP . Advances may also have culminated at close to 21,000 ¹⁴C yr BP , shortly before 17,800 ¹⁴C yr BP , and shortly before 15,730 ¹⁴C yr BP . The maximum at 22,295–22,567 ¹⁴C yr BP was probably the most extensive of the LGM in the northern part of the field area, whereas that at 14,805–14,869 ¹⁴C yr BP was the most extensive in the southern part. Snowline depression during these maxima was about 1000 m. Andean piedmont glaciers did not advance into the outer Llanquihue moraine belts during the portion of middle Llanquihue time between 29,385 ¹⁴C yr BP and more than 39,660 ¹⁴C yr BP . In the southern part of the field area, the Golfo de Ancud lobe, as well as the Golfo Corcovado lobe, achieved a maximum at the outermost Llanquihue moraine prior to 49,892 ¹⁴C yr BP . Pollen analysis of the Taiquemmire, which is located on this moraine, suggests that the old Llanquihue advance probably corresponds to the time of marine isotope stage 4. The implication is that the Andean snowline was then depressed as much as during the LGM. A Llanquihue-age glacier expansion into the outer moraine belts also occurred more than about 40,000 ¹⁴C yr BP for the Lago Llanquihue piedmont glacier.  相似文献