Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change     

Matthew Ranson  Carolyn Kousky  Matthias Ruth  Lesley Jantarasami  Allison Crimmins  Lisa Tarquinio 《Climatic change》2014,127(2):227-241

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 478 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from nineteen studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5 °C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 63 %. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are +28 % and +23 %, respectively. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.  相似文献   

Global trends and patterns of drought from space   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lisa Damberg  Amir AghaKouchak 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(3-4):441-448

This paper analyzes changes in areas under droughts over the past three decades and alters our understanding of how amplitude and frequency of droughts differ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH). Unlike most previous global-scale studies that have been based on climate models, this study is based on satellite gauge-adjusted precipitation observations. Here, we show that droughts in terms of both amplitude and frequency are more variable over land in the SH than in the NH. The results reveal no significant trend in the areas under drought over land in the past three decades. However, after investigating land in the NH and the SH separately, the results exhibit a significant positive trend in the area under drought over land in the SH, while no significant trend is observed over land in the NH. We investigate the spatial patterns of the wetness and dryness over the past three decades, and we show that several regions, such as the southwestern United States, Texas, parts of the Amazon, the Horn of Africa, northern India, and parts of the Mediterranean region, exhibit a significant drying trend. The global trend maps indicate that central Africa, parts of southwest Asia (e.g., Thailand, Taiwan), Central America, northern Australia, and parts of eastern Europe show a wetting trend during the same time span. The results of this satellite-based study disagree with several model-based studies which indicate that droughts have been increasing over land. On the other hand, our findings concur with some of the observation-based studies.  相似文献   

Advancing process‐based watershed hydrological research using near‐surface geophysics: a vision for,and review of,electrical and magnetic geophysical methods     

D. A. Robinson  A. Binley  N. Crook  F. D. Day‐Lewis  T. P. A. Ferré  V. J. S. Grauch  R. Knight  M. Knoll  V. Lakshmi  R. Miller  J. Nyquist  L. Pellerin  K. Singha  L. Slater 《水文研究》2008,22(18):3604-3635

We want to develop a dialogue between geophysicists and hydrologists interested in synergistically advancing process based watershed research. We identify recent advances in geophysical instrumentation, and provide a vision for the use of electrical and magnetic geophysical instrumentation in watershed scale hydrology. The focus of the paper is to identify instrumentation that could significantly advance this vision for geophysics and hydrology during the next 3–5 years. We acknowledge that this is one of a number of possible ways forward and seek only to offer a relatively narrow and achievable vision. The vision focuses on the measurement of geological structure and identification of flow paths using electrical and magnetic methods. The paper identifies instruments, provides examples of their use, and describes how synergy between measurement and modelling could be achieved. Of specific interest are the airborne systems that can cover large areas and are appropriate for watershed studies. Although airborne geophysics has been around for some time, only in the last few years have systems designed exclusively for hydrological applications begun to emerge. These systems, such as airborne electromagnetic (EM) and transient electromagnetic (TEM), could revolutionize hydrogeological interpretations. Our vision centers on developing nested and cross scale electrical and magnetic measurements that can be used to construct a three‐dimensional (3D) electrical or magnetic model of the subsurface in watersheds. The methodological framework assumes a ‘top down’ approach using airborne methods to identify the large scale, dominant architecture of the subsurface. We recognize that the integration of geophysical measurement methods, and data, into watershed process characterization and modelling can only be achieved through dialogue. Especially, through the development of partnerships between geophysicists and hydrologists, partnerships that explore how the application of geophysics can answer critical hydrological science questions, and conversely provide an understanding of the limitations of geophysical measurements and interpretation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David W. Pierce  Tapash Das  Daniel R. Cayan  Edwin P. Maurer  Norman L. Miller  Yan Bao  M. Kanamitsu  Kei Yoshimura  Mark A. Snyder  Lisa C. Sloan  Guido Franco  Mary Tyree 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):839-856

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.  相似文献   

Governing geoengineering research: why, when and how?     

Lisa Dilling  Rachel Hauser 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):553-565

Research on geoengineering – deliberate management of the Earth’s climate system – is being increasingly discussed within the science and policy communities. While justified as necessary in order to expand the range of options available to policy makers in the future, geoengineering research has already engendered public controversy. Proposed projects have been protested or cancelled, and calls for a governance framework abound. In this paper, we consider the reasons why geoengineering research might be subject to additional governance and suggest mechanisms that might be usefully applied in developing such a framework. We consider criteria for governance as raised by a review of the growing literature on geoengineering and other controversial scientific topics. We suggest three families of concern that any governance research framework must respond to: the direct physical risks of the research; the transparency and responsibility in decision making for the research; and the larger societal meanings of the research. We review what mechanisms might be available to respond to these three families of concern, and consider how these might apply to geoengineering research.  相似文献   

Emission-line abundances of absorption-selected galaxies at z < 0.5     

Sara L. Ellison  Lisa J. Kewley †  Gabriela Mallén-Ornelas 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,357(1):354-360

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Rotation periods for stars of the TW Hydrae association: the evidence for two spatially and rotationally distinct pre-main-sequence populations     

Warrick A. Lawson  Lisa A. Crause 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,357(4):1399-1406

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Frequency dependence of Q in the mantle underlying the shield areas of Eurasia, Part I: analyses of short and intermediate period data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zoltan A. Der  Alison C. Lees  Vernon F. Cormier  Lisa M. Anderson 《Geophysical Journal International》1986,87(3):1057-1084

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Domestic and international arrivals of NOBOB (no ballast on board) vessels to lower Chesapeake Bay     

Drake LA  Jenkins PT  Dobbs FC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(5):560-565

In examining ship-mediated biological invasions, most research and treatment development has focused on ballast water. Another vector that has gained attention recently is vessels arriving in a "no ballast on board" (NOBOB) condition. Such ships retain relatively small, unpumpable volumes of water and sediment in their ballast tanks. Nonetheless, these unpumpable portions can represent great ecological risk. This scenario is relevant in the Great Lakes, which have experienced a dramatic series of introductions, despite most vessels arriving there as NOBOBs since 1994. We examined shipping patterns of NOBOBs arriving to lower Chesapeake Bay to begin evaluating their risk of biopollution. Only 14% of ships arrive as NOBOBs, and of those, 17% depart to another port in the upper bay. Most NOBOBs arrive from or leave for other US ports; proximate trans-Atlantic crossings are few. Given the nature of their operations, we conclude NOBOBs may represent a risk for aquatic nuisance species invasions to Chesapeake Bay.  相似文献   

Picophytoplankton and bacterioplankton in the Mississippi River plume and its adjacent waters   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hongbin?LiuEmail author  Michael?Dagg  Lisa?Campbell  Juanita?Urban-Rich 《Estuaries and Coasts》2004,27(1):147-156

Picoplankton abundance and distribution in the Mississippi River plume and its adjacent waters were studied during two cruises in April (high discharge) and October (low discharge) 2000 using flow cytometry. Concentrations of photosynthetic picoplankton,Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes were low in the turbid plume water but high in the coastal waters—i.e., the green waters resulting from mixing of river and oceanic waters. In this region, three types ofSynechococcus, characterized by their phycoerythrin chromophore composition, were found:Synechococcus cells with a low phycourobilin to phycoerythrobilin ratio (PUB:PEB) occurred throughout the region and dominated the totalSymechococcus abundance during both seasons; high PUB:PEB cells, which are the dominant strains in the open or blue ocean, occurred only at the outer shelf stations; and PEB-onlySynechococcus were abundant in most of the surveyed area during april, but were not observed during October.Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria only occurred at the oceanic stations, but extended farther inshore in October compared to April. This was a consequence of the reduced discharge and plume size during October. Picophytoplankton were a less important component of total phytoplankton biomass in the turbid river water and more important in the oligotrophic Gulf water. Seasonally, the contribution of picophytoplankton to total phytoplankton biomass in the surveyed area was higher during low discharge in October than during high discharge in April, even though the spring 2000 river discharge was unusually low and might not present a typical high discharge scenario. The abundance of heterotrophic bacteria was weakly correlated to chlorophylla (chla) concentration, but better correlated to picophytoplankton biomass. A higher proportion of High DNA bacteria occurred in the river-impacted regions during both seasons, with the ratio of High DNA bacteria to Low DNA bacteria significantly higher in April.  相似文献