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91.
Estimates of abundance and size of three commercially exploited grunt species indicate ontogenetic changes in habitat utilization concentrate their juveniles within the lagoon of the Bay of La Parguera, Puerto Rico. Eleven biotopes, defined by four benthic structures (reef, mangrove, vegetation beds and unconsolidated sediments) and three geographic zones (inner lagoon, outer lagoon and bank shelf) were sampled randomly by visual surveys. French, bluestriped and white grunt (Haemulon flavolineatum, Haemulon sciurus and Haemulon plumeri) were common in the bay and appeared to exhibit similar life history patterns of cross-shelf migration and habitat selection. Recently settled grunts were dispersed over vegetated and unconsolidated soft-bottom sediments of the bay. The juvenile stage occurred in highest densities in shallow lagoon biotopes among the submerged prop-roots of mangrove stands and on inshore reefs. Length data indicates that grunts migrate offshore to adult habitat via increasingly deep reefs. Indices of biotope nursery function based on standing stock estimates of juveniles identified three biotopes, all within the inner lagoon as essential habitat for juveniles of 5–10 cm length interval. This concentration of juveniles within biotopes of the lagoon could represent a bottleneck to recruitment for grunt stocks. Evidence that quantity and quality of lagoon nurseries may limit recruitment indicates that these areas represent a key component of a marine protected area designed to restore fisheries within the bay.  相似文献   
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Studies of normal fault systems in modern extensional regimes (e.g. Basin and Range), and in exhumed, ancient rift basins (e.g. Gulf of Suez Rift) have shown a link between the evolution of fault‐related footwall topography and associated erosional drainage systems. In this study, we use 3D seismic reflection data to image the footwall crest of a gravity‐driven fault system developed during late Middle Jurassic to Early Cretaceous rifting on the Halten Terrace, offshore Mid‐Norway. This 22‐km‐long fault system lacks significant footwall uplift, with hangingwall subsidence accommodating throw accumulation on the fault system. Significant erosion has occurred along the length of the footwall crest and is defined by 96 catchments characterized by erosional channels. These erosional channels consist of small, linear systems up to 750 m long located along the front of the fault footwall. Larger, dendritic channel systems extend further back (up to 3 km normal to fault strike) into the footwall. These channels are up to 7 km long, up to 50 m deep and up to 1 km wide. Fault throw varies along strike, with greatest throw in the centre of the fault decreasing towards the fault tips; localized throw minima are interpreted to represent segment linkage points, which were breached as the fault grew. Comparison of the catchment location to the throw distribution shows that the largest catchments are in the centre of the fault and decrease in size to the fault tips. There is no link between the location of the breached segment linkage points and the location and size of the footwall catchments, suggesting that the first‐order control on footwall erosion patterns is the overall fault‐throw distribution.  相似文献   
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Learning about climate change and implications for near-term policy   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
Climate change is an issue of risk management. The most important causes for concern are not the median projections of future climate change, but the low-probability, high-consequence impacts. Because the policy question is one of sequential decision making under uncertainty, we need not decide today what to do in the future. We need only to decide what to do today, and future decisions can be revised as we learn more. In this study, we use a stochastic version of the DICE-99 model (Nordhaus WD, Boyer J (2000) Warming the world: economic models of global warming. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA) to explore the effect of different rates of learning on the appropriate level of near-term policy. We show that the effect of learning depends strongly on whether one chooses efficiency (balancing costs and benefits) or cost-effectiveness (stabilizing at a given temperature change target) as the criterion for policy design. Then, we model endogenous learning by calculating posterior distributions of climate sensitivity from Bayesian updating, based on temperature changes that would be observed for a given true climate sensitivity and assumptions about errors, prior distributions, and the presence of additional uncertainties. We show that reducing uncertainty in climate uncertainty takes longer when there is also uncertainty in the rate of heat uptake by the ocean, unless additional observations are used, such as sea level rise.  相似文献   
97.
Genetic techniques are increasingly employed in the field of conservation biology; our understanding of sea turtle biology, and particularly of sea turtle migrations and population structures, has increased through genetic analyses that ‘match’ turtles found in various and often widely distributed habitats (e.g. nesting beaches, foraging grounds, migratory corridors). This relatively recent technological development has implications for how sea turtles are conceived, both as resources and as objects of conservation. Traditionally, sea turtle populations have been identified with nesting beaches, and most conservation efforts have been focused on these discrete geographic locations and undertaken by the state. The more complete understanding of relationships among turtles found in geographically disparate areas, achieved via genetic analysis, can take conservation beyond the beaches and territorial waters of individual states; foraging populations can now be linked to nesting populations sometimes hundreds of kilometers distant. In this paper, we explore the implications of genetic analysis for sea turtle conservation, the scale at which it is undertaken, and the variety of actors with competing interests in it. We focus on the case of hawksbill sea turtles in the Caribbean, where genetic data are invoked in conservation conflicts. We are particularly interested in the way genetic data can support the scaling-up of sea turtle conservation, creating new ‘conservation territories,’ and we draw on political ecology and common pool resource theory to explore the implications thereof.  相似文献   
98.
Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km2 in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.  相似文献   
99.
Adaptive practices are taking place in a range of sectors and regions in Australia in response to existing climate impacts, and in anticipation of future unavoidable impacts. For a rich economy such as Australia’s, the majority of human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. However, the impacts on human systems at the intra-nation level are not homogenous due to their differing levels of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change. Despite past resilience to changing climates, many Indigenous communities located in remote areas are currently identified as highly vulnerable to climate impacts due to their high level of exposure and sensitivity, but low capacity to adapt. In particular, communities located on low-lying islands have particular vulnerability to sea level rise and increasingly intense storm surges caused by more extreme weather. Several Torres Strait Island community leaders have been increasingly concerned about these issues, and the ongoing risks to these communities’ health and well-being posed by direct and indirect climate impacts. A government agency is beginning to develop short-term and long-term adaptation plans for the region. This work, however, is being developed without adequate scientific assessment of likely ‘climate changed futures.’ This is because the role that anthropogenic climate change has played, or will play, on extreme weather events for this region is not currently clear. This paper draws together regional climate data to enable a more accurate assessment of the islands’ exposure to climate impacts. Understanding the level of exposure and uncertainty around specific impacts is vital to gauge the nature of these islands’ vulnerability, in so doing, to inform decisions about how best to develop anticipatory adaptation strategies over various time horizons, and to address islanders’ concerns about the likely resilience and viability of their communities in the longer term.  相似文献   
100.
The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., ?17.8°C (0°F), 0°C (32°F), and 32.2°C (90°F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (≤??17.8°C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (≥32°C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0°C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana’s ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes.  相似文献   
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