Climate change and energy security: an analysis of policy research     

Marcus DuBois King  Jay Gulledge 《Climatic change》2014,123(1):57-68

The literature on climate change’s impacts on energy security is scattered across disparate fields of research and schools of thought. Much of this literature has been produced outside of the academy by scholars and practitioners working in “think tanks,” government agencies, and international/multilateral institutions. Here we reviewed a selected set of 58 articles and reports primarily from such sources and performed textual analysis of the arguments. Our review of this literature identifies three potential mechanisms for linking climate change and energy security: Climate change may 1) create second-order effects that may exacerbate social instability and disrupt energy systems; 2) directly impact energy supply and/or systems or 3) influence energy security through the effects of climate-related policies. We identify emerging risks to energy security driven by climate mitigation technology choices but find less evidence of climate change’s direct physical impacts. We used both empirical and qualitative selection factors for choosing the grey literature sample. The sources we selected were published in the last 5 years, available through electronic media and were written in language accessible to general policy or academic readers. The organizations that published the literature had performed previous research in the general fields of energy and/or climate change with some analytical content and identified themselves as non-partisan. This literature is particularly valuable to scholars because identifies understudied relationships that can be rigorously assessed through academic tools and methodologies and informs a translational research agenda that will allow scholars to engage with practitioners to address challenges that lie at the nexus of climate change and energy security.  相似文献   

Precipitation trends using in-situ and gridded datasets     

Sharlene Lata Beharry  Ricardo Marcus Clarke  Kishan Kurmarsingh 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(3-4):599-607

Six in situ precipitation time series of varying time periods in the northwestern region and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) v6 0.5° monthly dataset (1901–2010) were statistically examined for monotonic trends in Trinidad. The Pettit test was used to investigate the abrupt changes in the mean while the Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the monotonic trends. It was found that three in situ stations and the six grids experienced abrupt changes in the rainfall patterns and that there was an apparent shift in the seasons. In addition, for five out of the six in situ stations no monotonic change was detected in the monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall patterns. Gradual decreases were detected in the calculated weighted area average for five stations, the GPCCv6 dataset and St. Ann’s time series. The GPCCv6 data indicated that the dry season in the southern Trinidad is becoming drier. Results also suggested that the range between the greatest and lowest recorded rainfall values for some months have increased while others decreased. The gridded dataset appears to give a good representation of the dry season (January to May) rainfall compared with the wet season (June to December) and was found to be negatively biased for the north-western region but may not necessarily be so for the entire island. The results suggested that in the north-western region mirco-climates may exist. It is recommended that further investigations are needed using in situ data.  相似文献   

Accuracy assessment of georectified aerial photographs: Implications for measuring lateral channel movement in a GIS     

Michael L. Hughes  Patricia F. McDowell  W. Andrew Marcus 《Geomorphology》2006,74(1-4):1-16

Aerial photographs are commonly used to measure planform river channel change. We investigated the sources and implications of georectification error in the measurement of lateral channel movement by testing how the number (6–30) and type (human versus natural landscape features) of ground-control points (GCPs) and the order of the transformation polynomial (first-, second-, and third-order) affected the spatial accuracy of a typical georectified aerial photograph. Error was assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the GCPs as well as error in 31 independent test points. The RMSE and the mean and median values of test-point errors were relatively insensitive to the number of GCPs above eight, but the upper range of test-point errors showed marked improvement (i.e., the number of extreme errors was reduced) as more GCPs were used for georectification. Using more GCPs thus improved overall georectification accuracy, but this improvement was not indicated by the RMSE, suggesting that independent test-points located in key areas of interest should be used in addition to RSME to evaluate georectification error.The order of the transformation polynomial also influenced test-point accuracy; the second-order polynomial function yielded the best result for the terrain of the study area. GCP type exerted a less consistent influence on test-point accuracy, suggesting that although hard-edged points (e.g., roof corners) are favored as GCPs, some soft-edged points (e.g., trees) may be used without adding significant error. Based upon these results, we believe that aerial photos of a floodplain landscape similar to that of our study can be consistently georectified to an accuracy of approximately ± 5 m, with 10% chance of greater error. The implications of georectification error for measuring lateral channel movement are demonstrated with a multiple buffer analysis, which documents the inverse relationship between the size of the buffers applied to two channel centerlines and the magnitude of change detected between them. This study demonstrates the importance of using an independent test-point analysis in addition to the RSME to evaluate and treat locational error in channel change studies.  相似文献   

Environmental controls on 10Be‐based catchment‐averaged denudation rates along the western margin of the Peruvian Andes          下载免费PDF全文

Regina Reber  Romain Delunel  Fritz Schlunegger  Camille Litty  Andrea Madella  Naki Akçar  Marcus Christl 《地学学报》2017,29(5):282-293

We present ¹⁰Be‐based basin‐averaged denudation rates for the entire western margin of the Peruvian Andes. Denudation rates range from c. 9 mm ka^?1 to 190 mm ka^?1 and are related neither to the subduction of the Nazca plate nor to the current seismicity along the Pacific coast and the occurrence of raised Quaternary marine terraces. Therefore, we exclude a tectonic control on denudation on a millennial time‐scale. Instead, we explain >60% of the observed denudation rates with a model where erosion rates increase either with mean basin slope angles or with mean annual water discharge. These relationships suggest a strong environmental control on denudation.  相似文献   

Hidden Components in Tropical Seascapes: Deep-Estuary Habitats Support Unique Fish Assemblages     

Michael Bradley  Ronald Baker  Marcus Sheaves 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(4):1195-1206

Tropical coastal seascapes are biodiverse and highly productive systems composed of an interacting mix of habitats. They provide crucial ecosystem services that support people’s livelihoods, yet key components of these seascapes remain unstudied. We know little about the deep (>2 m) subtidal areas of tropical estuaries, because, due to gear restrictions, there have been no detailed studies of the habitats they contain and the fish that use them. Consequently, potentially important functions and linkages with surrounding habitats remain unknown. Using unbaited videos, an approach capable of sampling the full breadth of benthic habitats and whole fish assemblages, we investigated patterns of fish occupancy of the deep subtidal habitats (2–20 m) in one of Australia’s largest tropical estuaries. We identified 19 taxa not previously recorded from estuaries of tropical eastern Australia, along with 36 previously identified estuary taxa. Three recognisable fish assemblages were associated with distinct benthic habitat types: open bottom fine sediment, seagrass and structurally complex rocky areas. In deep water, habitats often overlooked in shallow water become important, and there are sharp differences in habitat function. Deep subtidal habitats are potentially an important zone for direct interaction between estuary and marine fauna, with a range of consequences for intertidal habitat use and nursery ground functioning. The interface between marine areas and the shallow-water estuary may be richer and more complex than previously recognised.  相似文献   

Assessment of runoff,water and sediment quality in the Selenga River basin aided by a web-based geoservice     

Daniel Karthe  Sergey Chalov  Vsevolod Moreido  Margarita Pashkina  Anna Romanchenko  Gunsmaa Batbayar  Andrei Kalugin  Katja Westphal  Marcus Malsy  Martina Flörke 《Water Resources》2017,44(3):399-416

The Selenga River is the main artery feeding Lake Baikal. It has a catchment of ~450000 km² in the boundary region between Northern Mongolia and Southern Siberia. Climate, land use and dynamic socioeconomic changes go along with rising water abstractions and contaminant loads originating from mining sites and urban wastewater. In the future, these pressures might have negative impacts on the ecosystems of Lake Baikal and the Selenga River Delta, which is an important wetland region in itself and forms the last geobiochemical barrier before the Selenga drains into Lake Baikal. The following study aims to assess current trends in hydrology and water quality in the Selenga-Baikal basin, identify their drivers and to set up models (WaterGAP3 framework and ECOMAG) for the prediction of future changes. Of particular relevance for hydrological and water quality changes in the recent past were climate and land use trends as well as contaminant influx from mining areas and urban settlements. In the near future, additional hydrological modifications due to the construction of dams and abstractions/water diversions from the Selenga’s Mongolian tributaries could lead to additional alterations.  相似文献   

Incorporation of terrestrial wetland material into aquatic food webs in a tropical estuarine wetland     

Kátya Abrantes  Marcus Sheaves 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope composition of a range of organisms collected from two intermittently connected floodplain pools in the Ross River estuary were analysed to assess the extent to which carbon fixed by terrestrial wetland producers is incorporated into adjacent aquatic food webs. The two pools differed in surrounding vegetation with one surrounded by mangroves and the other by the salt couch Sporobolus virginicus. At both pools, animals showed differences in δ¹³C, indicating differences in sources of carbon. Since δ¹³C values of C₃ mangroves (−29.7 to −26.3‰) were very different from those of the C₄ salt couch (−16.3 to −15.4‰), it was possible to determine the importance of terrestrial wetland producers by comparing isotope values of consumers between sites, in a species by species approach. Most animal species collected showed lower δ¹³C at the mangrove pool than at the Sporobolus pool, which indicates a greater incorporation of mangrove carbon at the mangrove pool. However, the animals’ isotopic shifts were also similar to that shown by epiphytes, and hence the differences in animal δ¹³C could also be a result of a dependence on these producers. The IsoSource model was useful to clarify this question, indicating that mangrove and salt marsh material was a crucial contributor to the diet of several fish and invertebrate species at both sites, indicating that carbon of terrestrial origin is incorporated in the estuarine food web.  相似文献   

Strategic coastal governance issues in Fiji: The challenges of integration     

Marcus B. Lane   《Marine Policy》2008,32(6):856-866

This paper examines the governance of coastal environments in Fiji with a view to identifying the strategic issues that constrain the achievement of integrated coastal management. Integration has, in recent years, become a major focus of efforts to improve environmental management in many parts of the world. This issue is pursued by using governance as a framework. The dominant concepts and strategies being used around the world in environmental governance are then considered as a prelude into the identification and discussion of the major governance issues affecting coastal management in Fiji. These are identified as: (i) integration and coordination, (ii) the need for system-wide governance reform, (iii) the degree of centralisation, (iv) coastal planning, (v) information and (vi) the capacity of governance.  相似文献   

Hydro-acoustic remote sensing of benthic biological communities on the shallow South East Australian continental shelf     

Alex Rattray  Daniel Ierodiaconou  Laurie Laurenson  Shoaib Burq  Marcus Reston 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

Information regarding the composition and extent of benthic habitats on the South East Australian continental shelf is limited. In this habitat mapping study, multibeam echosounder (MBES) data are integrated with precisely geo-referenced video ground-truth data to quantify benthic biotic communities at Cape Nelson, Victoria, Australia. Using an automated decision tree classification approach, 5 representative biotic groups defined from video analysis were related to hydro-acoustically derived variables in the Cape Nelson survey area. Using a combination of multibeam bathymetry, backscatter and derivative products produced highest overall accuracy (87%) and kappa statistic (0.83). This study demonstrates that decision tree classifiers are capable of integrating variable data types for mapping distributions of benthic biological assemblages, which are important in maintaining biodiversity and other system services in the marine environment.  相似文献   

Living in a High Mountain Border Region： the Case of the ＇Bhotiyas＇ of the Indo-Chinese Border Region   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

Marcus Nüsse 《山地科学学报》2008,5(3):209-217

This article introduces one of South Asia＇s most important border regions into academic discourse, namely, the Central Himalayan mountain rim separating India and the Tibetan Autonomous Region （People＇s Republic of China）. What makes this border region so interesting is a tangled interplay of changing environmental, cultural, and political forms to which the local populations constantly have to adapt in order to make a living there. We focused on the so-called ＇Bhotiyas＇ of Uttarakhand, former trans- Himalayan traders whose ethnicity and livelihood was traditionally associated with the Indo-Chinese border that was sealed as a result of the India-China war in 1962. Drawing on the work of borderland scholarship, we identified the key processes and developments that changed the perspective of this area. Competing political aspirations as well as the ＇Bhotiyas＇ countervailing strategies were considered equally important for understanding local livelihoods and identities within the dynamics of a ＇high mountain border region＇. Through an exemplary analysis of historical differences of power in one ＇Bhotiya＇ valley, we further explored the ways in which shifting socio-spatial constellations are creatively re-interpreted by the borderlanders.  相似文献