Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ivan D. Haigh  E. M. S. Wijeratne  Leigh R. MacPherson  Charitha B. Pattiaratchi  Matthew S. Mason  Ryan P. Crompton  Steve George 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):121-138

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.  相似文献   

Estimates of twenty-first century sea-level changes for Norway   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Matthew J. R. Simpson  Kristian Breili  Halfdan P. Kierulf 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1405-1424

In this work we establish a framework for estimating future regional sea-level changes for Norway. Following recently published works, we consider how different physical processes drive non-uniform sea-level changes by accounting for spatial variations in (1) ocean density and circulation (2) ice and ocean mass changes and associated gravitational effects on sea level and (3) vertical land motion arising from past surface loading change and associated gravitational effects on sea level. An important component of past and present sea-level change in Norway is glacial isostatic adjustment. Central to our study, therefore, is a reassessment of vertical land motion using a far larger set of new observations from a permanent GNSS network. Our twenty-first century sea-level estimates are split into two parts. Firstly, we show regional projections largely based on findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) and dependent on the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. These indicate that twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway will vary between ?0.2 to 0.3 m (1-sigma ± 0.13 m). Secondly, we explore a high-end scenario, in which a global atmospheric temperature rise of up to 6 °C and emerging collapse for some areas of the Antarctic ice sheets are assumed. Using this approach twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway are found to vary between 0.25 and 0.85 m (min/max ± 0.45 m). We attach no likelihood to any of our projections owing to the lack of understanding of some of the processes that cause sea-level change.  相似文献   

A continuous velocity field for Norway   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Halfdan Pascal Kierulf  Mohammed Ouassou  Matthew James Ross Simpson  Olav Vestøl 《Journal of Geodesy》2013,87(4):337-349

In Norway, as in the rest of Fennoscandia, the process of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment causes ongoing crustal deformation. The vertical and horizontal movements of the Earth can be measured to a high degree of precision using GNSS. The Norwegian GNSS network has gradually been established since the early 1990s and today contains approximately 140 stations. The stations are established both for navigation purposes and for studies of geophysical processes. Only a few of these stations have been analyzed previously. We present new velocity estimates for the Norwegian GNSS network using the processing package GAMIT. We examine the relation between time-series length and precision. With approximately 3.5 years of data, we are able to reproduce the secular vertical rate with a precision of 0.5 mm/year. To establish a continuous crustal velocity field in areas where we have no GNSS receivers or the observation period is too short to obtain reliable results, either interpolation or modeling is required. We experiment with both approaches in this analysis by using (i) a statistical interpolation method called Kriging and (ii) a GIA forward model. In addition, we examine how our vertical velocity field solution is affected by the inclusion of data from repeated leveling. Results from our geophysical model give better estimates on the edge of the network, but inside the network the statistical interpolation method performs better. In general, we find that if we have less than 3.5 years of data for a GNSS station, the interpolated value is better than the velocity estimate based on a single time-series.  相似文献   

The anticipated role of the large format camera in future earth observation strategies     

Matthew Heric  Carroll Lucas 《国际地球制图》2013,28(4):23-26

The development of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Large Format Camera has added a new dimension to remote sensing. Offering inexpensive large area coverage imagery with excellent geometric fidelity, the LFC was successfully flown in late 1984 aboard the Space Shuttle. The success of this initial flight has encouraged scientists to propose that the LFC be included as part of the earth observation sensor bed on the planned space station.

The relatively low costs associated with LFC photography provide an opportunity for developing countries to learn more about the capabilities and advantages of exploiting remotely sensed imagery. In particular, by using LFC imagery to study an array of local and global phenomena, these developing countries can quickly increase their knowledge of earth observation techniques and join the “community”; of nations currently active in remote sensing efforts.  相似文献   

Jobs and the Single Parent: An Analysis of Accessibility to Employment in Toronto     

Antonio Páez  Steven Farber  Ruben Mercado  Matthew Roorda  Catherine Morency 《Urban geography》2013,34(6):815-842

Abstract

In this article, we undertake an analysis of accessibility to jobs from the perspective of single-parent household members. Individuals in this demographic segment are of interest due to the fact they often face the double burden of household and employment responsibilities. A case study of the city of Toronto in Canada, an urban area that has seen an increase in absolute and relative numbers of single-parent households in recent years, is presented. Analysis is based on the application of relative accessibility deprivation indicators (RADI), which are calculated using model-based estimates of distance traveled for various population segments, as well as employment data for the city and its surroundings. The results of the analysis indicate that there are substantial differences in the levels of accessibility to jobs between members of single-parent households, in particular females, and members of other types of households.  相似文献   

ACCELERATED EROSION ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN     

Jonathan D. Phillips  Marilyn Wyrick  Gil Robbins  Matthew Flynn 《自然地理学》2013,34(2):114-130

The Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States has long been considered to have negligible soil erosion owing to low relief and permeable soils. Several recent studies point to a need for reassessment. Post-settlement erosion on the North Carolina Coastal Plain was estimated at the regional scale based on soil-profile truncation of a representative upland soil (Norfolk series). Apparent post-settlement soil-profile truncation ranges from 2.5 to 30 cm (mean 14.5 cm), implying a minimum regional average rate of 0.55 mm/yr since the region was settled in the 1700s. This amounts to a conservative estimated average rate of 9.3 t/ha/yr, a rate of the same general magnitude as estimated erosion rates in the North Carolina Piedmont, long recognized as a problem erosion area. Results imply accelerated water erosion despite the low slopes and permeable soils, and suggest the possibility of significant eolian erosion in the region. This rapid erosion in an area noted for its geological stability is a testament to the importance of vegetation cover and human agency in landscape evolution in the Coastal Plain. [Key words: accelerated erosion, soil profile, geomorphology, coastal plain, North Carolina.]  相似文献   

Historic primary producer communities linked to water quality and hydrologic changes in the northern Everglades     

Matthew N. Waters  Joseph M. Smoak  Colin J. Saunders 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2013,49(1):67-81

The northern Everglades Water Conservation Areas have experienced recent ecological shifts in primary producer community structure involving marl periphyton mats and dense Typha-dominated macrophyte stands. Multiple investigations have identified phosphorus (P) as a driver of primary producer community structure, but effects of water impoundment beginning in the 1950s and changes in water hardness [e.g., (CaCO₃)] have also been identified as a concern. In an effort to understand pre-1950, primary producer community structure and identify community shifts since 1950, we measured pigment proxies on three sediment cores collected in Water Conservation Area-2A (WCA-2A) along a phosphorus enrichment gradient. Photosynthetic pigments, sediment total phosphorus content (TP), organic matter, total organic carbon and nitrogen were used to infer historic primary producer communities and changes in water quality and hydrology regulating those communities. Excess ²¹⁰Pb was used to establish historic dates for the sediment cores. Results indicate the northern area of WCA-2A increased marl deposition and increased algal abundance ca. 1920. This increase in (presumably) calcareous periphyton before intensive agriculture and impoundment suggest canal-derived calcium inputs and to some extent early drainage effects played a role in initiating this community shift. The northern area community then shifted to Typha dominance around 1965. The areas to the south in WCA-2A experienced increased marl deposition and algal abundance around or just prior to 1950s impoundment, the precise timing limited by core age resolution. Continued increases in algal abundance were evident after 1950, coinciding with impoundment and deepening of canals draining into WCA-2A, both likely increasing water mineral and nutrient concentrations. The intermediate site developed a Typha-dominated community ca. 1995 while the southern-most core site WCA-2A has yet to develop Typha dominance. Numerous studies link sediment TP >650 mg P/kg to marsh habitat degradation into Typha-dominance. The northern and intermediate cores where Typha is currently support this previous research by showing a distinct shift in the sediment record to Typha dominance corresponding to sediment TP between 600 and 700 mg P/kg. These temporal and spatial differences are consistent with modern evidence showing water-column gradients in mineral inputs (including Ca, carbonates, and phosphorus) altering primary producer community structure in WCA-2A, but also suggest hydroperiod has an effect on the mechanisms regulating periphyton development and Typha dominance.  相似文献   

The El Cielo Biosphere Reserve: Forest Cover Changes and Conservation Attitudes in an Important Neotropical Region     

Michael Steinberg  Matthew Taylor  Kealohanuiopuna Kinney 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):403-411

This article combines approaches to better understand both forest cover changes and attitudes toward environmental conservation in the El Cielo Biosphere Reserve in northeastern Mexico. Satellite images are used to document the extent and response of forest cover in the reserve before and after its designation as a biosphere reserve. Ethnographic interviews are also employed to examine the attitudes of local people toward the costs and benefits of the biosphere reserve in their lives. Our research found that unlike many “paper parks,” large-scale deforestation has stopped and forest cover has expanded after the biosphere reserve was created. Our research also found that local people value both tangible and intangible benefits created by the biosphere reserve.  相似文献   

Estimating daily streamflow in the Congo Basin using satellite-derived data and a semi-distributed hydrological model     

Yolande A. Munzimi  Matthew C. Hansen  Kwabena O. Asante 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):1472-1487

ABSTRACT

The application of remotely-sensed data for hydrological modeling of the Congo Basin is presented. Satellite-derived data, including TRMM precipitation, are used as inputs to drive the USGS Geospatial Streamflow Model (GeoSFM) to estimate daily river discharge over the basin from 1998 to 2012. Physically-based parameterization was augmented with a spatially-distributed calibration that enables GeoSFM to simulate hydrological processes such as the slowing effect of the Cuvette Centrale. The resulting simulated long-term mean of daily flows and the observed flow at the Kinshasa gauge were comparable (40 631 and 40 638 m³/s respectively), in the 7-year validation period (2004–2010), with no significant bias and a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.70. Modeled daily flows and aggregated monthly river outflows (compared to historical averages) for additional sites confirm the model reliability in capturing flow timing and seasonality across the basin, but sometimes fails to accurately predict flow magnitude. The results of this model can be useful in research and decision-making contexts and validate the application of satellite-based hydrological models driven for large, data-scarce river systems such as the Congo.  相似文献   

Comparison of land surface scheme simulations with field observations versus atmospheric model output as forcing     

Matthew K. MacDonald  Bruce J. Davison  Muluneh A. Mekonnen  Alain Pietroniro 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(16):2860-2871

ABSTRACT

The low density of meteorological stations in parts of Canada necessitates using numerical weather prediction (NWP)/assimilation output for hydrological modelling. In this study, comparisons are made of simulated land surface variables when using field observations versus NWP output as forcing for two well-instrumented sites: the mountainous and forested Marmot Creek Basin (MCRB) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, and a prairie cropland/grassland site (Kenaston). The Canadian Land Surface Scheme 3.6 (CLASS) was used for modelling. The Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model with Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) was also used as forcing. There was good agreement between observed meteorology and GEM/CaPA, though some deficiencies in GEM/CaPA were identified: the effects of sub-grid topography on incoming radiation and wind speed were not accounted for at MCRB, and CaPA did not capture some convective rainfall events at Kenaston. CLASS simulations using both sets of forcing showed difficulties in simulating snow depth, soil moisture and evapotranspiration; certain difficulties were linked to GEM/CaPA deficiencies and/or CLASS. Both sets of forcing tended to overestimate the duration of snow cover at MCRB, but during different years. With GEM/CaPA as forcing, CLASS overestimated the duration of frozen soils. The GEM/CaPA precipitation difficulties at Kenaston degraded soil moisture simulations.