Climate Change as a Predictable Surprise     

Max H. Bazerman 《Climatic change》2006,77(1-2):179-193

In this article, I analyze climate change as a “predictable surprise,” an event that leads an organization or nation to react with surprise, despite the fact that the information necessary to anticipate the event and its consequences was available (Bazerman and Watkins, 2004). I then assess the cognitive, organizational, and political reasons why society fails to implement wise strategies to prevent predictable surprises generally and climate change specifically. Finally, I conclude with an outline of a set of response strategies to overcome barriers to change.This paper has benefitted from the excellent input from Alex Todorov, Michael Oppenheimer, and three anonymous reviewers.  相似文献   

The composition of liquids coexisting with dense hydrous magnesium silicates at 11-13.5 GPa and the endpoints of the solidi in the MgO-SiO₂-H₂O system     

Elena Melekhova  Max W. Schmidt  Peter Ulmer 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2007,71(13):3348-3360

High-pressure liquids in the MgO-SiO₂-H₂O (MSH) system have been investigated at 11 and 13.5 GPa and between 1000 and 1350 °C. A bulk composition more magnesian than the tie-line forsterite-H₂O was employed for the study. Rocking multi-anvil experiments were combined with a diamond trap set-up. After termination of the experiments, the liquid trapped in the diamond layer was analysed by laser ablation ICP-MS using the ‘freezing’ technique. At 11 GPa, liquids coexist with one or two of phase A, clinohumite, chondrodite, and forsterite. A marked discontinuity in the evolution of liquid compositions near 1100 °C is observed at 11 GPa. A step of ∼13 wt% H₂O and 13 wt% MgO is interpreted to result from overstepping the fluid-saturated solidus reaction mass balanced to 1.00(18) phase A + 1.07(4) fluid = 0.63(15) chondrodite + 1.44(2) melt. At 13.5 GPa liquids coexist with one or two of hydrous wadsleyite, clinohumite, superhydrous B, phase B, and forsterite. The discontinuity in liquid composition is no longer present, indicating that the second critical endpoint of the solidus has been overstepped. Thus, hydrous melts in the Mg-rich part of the MSH system (molar bulk Mg/Si > 2) are chemically distinct from aqueous fluids at pressure up to 11 GPa. Convergence of fluid and melt compositions along the solidus resulting in a supercritical liquid occurs between 11 and 13.5 GPa, at which pressure the entire MSH system becomes supercritical.  相似文献   

Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Max Wyss  & Artak H. Martirosyan 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,134(2):329-340

A detailed analysis of the 35  yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5  yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3  km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5  yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30  km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T _w=3  yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M _min=2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T _w≤7, 2.2≤ M _min≤2.8.  相似文献   

The isotopic composition of strontium and oxygen in lavas from St. Helena,South Atlantic     

Norman K. Grant  James L. Powell  Flora R. Burkholder  John V. Walther  Max L. Coleman 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1976,31(2):209-223

Strontium and oxygen isotope measurements on the alkali basalt-trachyte-phonolite suite of St. Helena show that some of the late-fractionated rocks are enriched in ⁸⁷Sr and depleted in ¹⁸O relative to the older basalts. The data rule out both the formation of the late-fractionated rocks by the partial melting of hydrothermally altered oceanic crust and the contamination of the volcanic rocks by oceanic sediment. It also appears to be incompatible with models based either on the melting of previously fractionated and crystallized liquids in the volcanic pile, or the long-term fractionation of lavas over several millions of years in a sub-volcanic magma chamber.It is concluded that hydrothermal interaction with meteoric water is the most important cause of the ¹⁸O depletion. If the interaction occurred at widely differing temperatures, and involved meteoric and seawaters, it might conceivably have caused both the oxygen and strontium isotope heterogeneities.  相似文献   

Torsional vibrations in boxgirder suspension bridges     

Max Irvine 《地震工程与结构动力学》1974,3(2):203-213

A linear theory is developed for the free, torsional vibrations of the single-span, boxgirder suspension bridge. Both symmetric and antisymmetric modes are considered. For the symmetric modes, which induce additional cable tension, it is shown that it is imperative to include the elasticity of the cables if correct solutions are to be obtained. Three examples of bridges with widely differing properties are presented to illustrate the applicability of the theory. Orthogonality of the torsional modes of vibration is proved in Appendix I and the modification to the analysis, required when rigid centre ties are present, is outlined in Appendix II. The theories presented herein can be readily extended to the three-span bridge.  相似文献   

Experimental and computational validation and verification of the Stokes–Darcy and continuum pipe flow models for karst aquifers with dual porosity structure     

Xiaolong Hu  Xiaoming Wang  Max Gunzburger  Fei Hua  Yanzhao Cao 《水文研究》2012,26(13):2031-2040

In our previous study, we developed the Stokes–Darcy (SD) model was developed for flow in a karst aquifer with a conduit bedded in matrix, and the Beavers–Joseph (BJ) condition was used to describe the matrix–conduit interface. We also studied the mathematical well‐posedness of a coupled continuum pipe flow (CCPF) model as well as convergence rates of its finite element approximation. In this study, to compare the SD model with the CCPF model, we used numerical analyses to validate finite element discretisation methods for the two models. Using computational experiments, simulation codes implementing the finite element discretisations are then verified. Further model validation studies are based on the results of laboratory experiments. Comparing the results of computer simulations and experiments, we concluded that the SD model with the Beavers–Joseph interface condition is a valid model for conduit–matrix systems. On the other hand, the CCPF model with the value of the exchange parameter chosen within the range suggested in the literature perhaps does not result in good agreement with experimental observations. We then examined the sensitivity of the CCPF model with respect to the exchange parameter, concluding that, as has previously been noted, the model is highly sensitive for small values of the exchange parameter. However, for larger values, the model becomes less sensitive and, more important, also produces results that are in better agreement with experimental observations. This suggests that the CCPF model may also produce accurate simulation results, if one chooses larger values of the exchange parameter than those suggested in the literature. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Lake sediment phosphorus release management—Decision support and risk assessment framework     

Christopher W. Hickey  Max M. Gibbs 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(3):819-856

The release of phosphorus (P) from the sediments of eutrophic lakes is often associated with the proliferation of nuisance algal blooms, especially cyanobacteria. The successful implementation of management actions aimed at reducing such algal blooms requires an integrated approach, including both external and internal nutrient loads. The internal load of P can be a significant source of P for primary production, with greatest inputs occurring when lakes stratify and the hypolimnetic waters become anoxic. We reviewed the nature and characteristics of New Zealand lakes in relation to factors which affect the application of technologies to manage internal P loads within individual lakes. New Zealand's windy maritime climate causes lakes to mix more deeply than lakes in continental areas, which are characterised by relatively hot, calm summers. We assessed a range of management options which may be used to control internal P loads, and considered these in a de cision‐support framework aimed at identifying the key factors which may limit successful application. Methods to reduce P release from sediments include: physical approaches—such as artificial destratification, hypolimnetic aeration, enhanced lake flushing, and dredging/discing; and geochemical approaches—such as the application of alum and iron as flocculation agents, and other products as “capping” materials. The capping materials may be either a passive physical barrier (e.g., sand, gravel, clay) or an active barrier. The active barrier systems are generally pervious chemical or geochemical materials capable of binding contaminants by adsorption or precipitation processes. A decision‐support and risk assessment framework is provided to assist managers in the development of appropriate strategies for reducing or controlling internal P loads, and thus cyanobacteria blooms. A review of the sediment characteristics of lakes in the Taupo volcanic zone showed marked variability in sediment P content, and elevated geothermal arsenic concentrations in some lake sediments, which may affect the efficacy of chemical capping agents, indicating that site‐specific consideration of capping agent dose is required.  相似文献   

Spatial Patterns of Mangrove Shoreline Fish Communities in Relation with Environmental Variables in Caribbean Lagoons     

Amandine Vaslet  Yolande Bouchon-Navaro  Gaspard Charrier  Max Louis  Claude Bouchon 《Estuaries and Coasts》2010,33(1):195-210

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Géomorphologie de Tromelin,océan Indien     

Nick Marriner  Max Guérout  Thomas Romon  Philippe Dussouillez 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2010,342(10):766-777

Tromelin is a small coral reef island (1 km²) located in the Indian Ocean, approximately 440 km east of Madagascar and 580 km north of La Réunion. Despite the presence of a permanent Météo France weather station on Tromelin since the 1950 s, a detailed geomorhological study of the island has never been undertaken. In this paper, we describe results from the 2008 field season, which enabled us to map and describe seven geomorphological zones on the atoll. (1) Tromelin's bathymetry is characterised by a pronounced submarine slope, which attains depths of 1000 m at only 2.5 km from the island's coastline. This geomorphology is typical of volcanic hotspots. (2) A coral platform borders the emerged crown of the island. This platform is exposed at low tide and has been fashioned in an ancient Pleistocene substratum. The substratum has been eroded by abrasive marine action to its present shape since the stabilisation of relative sea level around 6000 years ago. Erosion of the reef yields most of the biogenic sediment supply to the island. (3) The upper foreshore is characterised by outcrops of beachrock. These formations show a stratfication in slabs and dip gently towards the sea in the same manner as the contemporary clastic sediments. (4) Tromelin's beaches are divided into three sub-units, which reflect the different energy dynamics around the island, in addition to the transfer of sediment from the windward to the leeward side: (i) the southern storm beaches are characterised by coral blocks reworked during episodic high-energy events; they form boulder ramparts. Four perched rampart ridges have been recorded at ∼1 m, ∼3 m, ∼4.5 m and ∼7 m above mean sea level; (ii) transitional beaches are observed between the south and the north, constituting storm blocks and coarse sands and gravels; and (iii) sandy beaches are noted on the northern leeward side, comprising rounded gravels and coarse sands. The northern tip of the island is characterised by a sand spit (∼125 × ∼225 m), whose geometry varies based on the seasonal and meteo-marine contexts. (5) On Tromelin, a number of dune formations are observed. These are best developed in the north of the island due to the south-north translation of clastic sediments by aeolian wind action, and the trapping of sands by the well-developed vegetation. The height of the dunes varies between 10 cm (the southern micro-dunes) to 250 cm in the Northeast of Tromelin. (6) Exceptional waves have deposited storm tracts up to 250 m from the foreshore zone, comprising coarse gravels and coral blocks. The storm tract deposits are most prevalent on the windward side of the island, due not only to the high-energy dynamics, but also to the absence of vegetation cover in this area. (7) The southern depression covers an area of ∼40,000 m². At its lowest point it is only 1.2 m above sea level.  相似文献   

Element signatures of subduction-zone fluids. An experimental study of the element partitioning (Dfluid/rock) of natural partly altered igneous rocks from the ODP drilling site 1,256     

Andreas Mutter  Astrid Holzheid  Andreas Klügel  Max Wilke  Jasper Berndt  Dieter Garbe-Schönberg 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(7):1917-1927

The trace element signatures of fluids were investigated by leaching experiments on natural samples of partly altered mafic igneous rocks recovered from the drilling site 1,256 of ODP Leg 206 on the Cocos plate (Central America). Experiments with ultrapure water were performed at 400 °C/0.4 GPa and 500 °C/0.7 GPa. Both fluids and residual solids were examined to obtain the partition coefficients (D^fluid/rock) of various trace elements. Element partition coefficients (D^fluid/rock) obtained at 500 °C/0.7 GPa are significantly lower compared to results obtained at 400 °C/0.4 GPa, which is in contrast to observations at higher pressures (2.2–6 GPa) and temperatures between 700 and 1,400 °C (Kessel et al. in Earth Planet Sci Lett 237: 873–892, 2005a; Spandler et al. in Chem Geol 239: 228–249, 2007). This finding may indicate a considerable pressure effect on the leaching processes and strongly divergent fluid–rock interactions in the upper part of a subduction zone at 0.4–0.7 GPa compared to deeper subduction areas with higher pressures. Furthermore, this may be interpreted as one of the earliest fractionation processes during the subduction of crustal material.  相似文献