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951.
This work analyzes the consequences of climate change in the distribution of the Mediterranean high-mountain vegetation. A study area was chosen at the Sierra de Guadarrama, in the center of the Iberian Peninsula (1,795 to 2,374 m asl). Climate change was analyzed from the record of 18 variables regarding temperature, rainfall and snowfall over the period 1951–2000. The permanence of snow cover (1996–2004), landforms stability and vegetation distribution in 5 years (1956, 1972, 1984, 1991 and 1998) were all analyzed. The Nival Correlation Level of the different vegetation classes was determined through their spatial and/or temporal relationship with several climatologic variables, snow cover duration and landforms. In order to quantify trends and major change processes, areas and percent changes were calculated, as well as Mean Annual Transformation Indices and Transition Matrices. The findings reveal that in the first part of the study period (up to the first half of the 1970s) the temperature rise in the mid-winter months caused the reduction of some classes of nival vegetation, while others expanded, favored by high rainfall, decrease in both maximum temperatures and summer aridity, and longer snow cover duration. The second part of the study period was characterized by the consolidation of the increase in all thermal variables, along with an important reduction in rainfall volume and snow cover duration. As a result, herbaceous plants, which are highly correlated with a long snow permanence and abundance of melting water, have been replaced by leguminous shrubs which grow away from the influence of snow, and which are steadily becoming denser. 相似文献
952.
We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with “warm” minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of “severe” precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50° S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070–2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50° S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM. 相似文献
953.
Frédéric Vivier Daniele Iudicone Fabiano Busdraghi Young-Hyang Park 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(2-3):153-184
We analyze the processes responsible for the generation and evolution of sea-surface temperature anomalies observed in the Southern Ocean during a decade based on a 2D diagnostic mixed-layer model in which geostrophic advection is prescribed from altimetry. Anomalous air–sea heat flux is the dominant term of the heat budget over most of the domain, while anomalous Ekman heat fluxes account for 20–40% of the variance in the latitude band 40°?60°S. In the ACC pathway, lateral fluxes of heat associated with anomalous geostrophic currents are a major contributor, dominating downstream of several topographic features, reflecting the influence of eddies and frontal migrations. A significant fraction of the variability of large-scale SST anomalies is correlated with either ENSO or the SAM, each mode contributing roughly equally. The relation between the heat budget terms and these climate modes is investigated, showing in particular that anomalous Ekman and air–sea heat fluxes have a co-operating effect (with regional exceptions), hence the large SST response associated with each mode. It is further shown that ENSO- or SAM-locked anomalous geostrophic currents generate substantial heat fluxes in all three basins with magnitude comparable with that of atmospheric forcings for ENSO, and smaller for the SAM except for limited areas. ENSO-locked forcings generate SST anomalies along the ACC pathway, and advection by mean flows is found to be a non-negligible contribution to the heat budget, exhibiting a wavenumber two zonal structure, characteristic of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. By contrast SAM-related forcings are predominantly zonally uniform along the ACC, hence smaller zonal SST gradients and a lesser role of mean advection, except in the SouthWest Atlantic. While modeled SST anomalies are significantly correlated with observations over most of the Southern Ocean, the analysis of the data-model discrepancies suggests that vertical ocean physics may play a significant role in the nonseasonal heat budget, especially in some key regions for mode water formation. 相似文献
954.
A wind-tunnel experiment was designed and carried out to study the effect of a surface roughness transition on subfilter-scale
(SFS) physics in a turbulent boundary layer. Specifically, subfilter-scale stresses are evaluated that require parameterizations
and are key to improving the accuracy of large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer. The surface transition
considered in this study consists of a sharp change from a rough, wire-mesh covered surface to a smooth surface. The resulting
magnitude jump in aerodynamic roughnesses, M = ln(z
01/z
02), where z
01 and z
02 are the upwind and downwind aerodynamic surface roughnesses respectively, is similar to that of past experimental studies
in the atmospheric boundary layer. The two-dimensional velocity fields used in this study are measured using particle image
velocimetry and are acquired at several positions downwind of the roughness transition as well as over a homogeneous smooth
surface. Results show that the SFS stress, resolved strain rate and SFS transfer rate of resolved kinetic energy are dependent
on the position within the boundary layer relative to the surface roughness transition. A mismatch is found in the downwind
trend of the SFS stress and resolved strain rate with distance from the transition. This difference of behaviour may not be
captured by some eddy-viscosity type models that parameterize the SFS stress tensor as proportional to the resolved strain
rate tensor. These results can be used as a benchmark to test the ability of existing and new SFS models to capture the spatial
variability SFS physics associated with surface roughness heterogeneities. 相似文献
955.
We present an analysis of a regional simulation of present-day climate (1981–1990) over southern South America. The regional
model MM5 was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the HadAM3H model. We evaluate the
capability of the model in simulating the observed climate with emphasis on low-level circulation patterns and surface variables,
such as precipitation and surface air mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. The regional model performance was evaluated
in terms of seasonal means, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and extreme events. Overall, the regional model is able
to capture the main features of the observed mean surface climate over South America, its seasonal evolution and the regional
detail due to topographic forcing. The observed regional patterns of surface air temperatures (mean, maxima and minima) are
well reproduced. Biases are mostly within 3°C, temperature being overestimated over central Argentina and underestimated in
mountainous regions during all seasons. Biases in northeastern Argentina and southeastern Brazil are positive during austral
spring season and negative in other seasons. In general, maximum temperatures are better represented than minimum temperatures.
Warm bias is larger during austral summer for maximum temperature and during austral winter for minimum temperature, mainly
over central Argentina. The broad spatial pattern of precipitation and its seasonal evolution are well captured; however,
the regional model overestimates the precipitation over the Andes region in all seasons and in southern Brazil during summer.
Precipitation amounts are underestimated over the La Plata basin from fall to spring. Extremes of precipitation are better
reproduced by the regional model compared with the driving model. Interannual variability is well reproduced too, but strongly
regulated by boundary conditions, particularly during summer months. Overall, taking into account the quality of the simulation,
we can conclude that the regional model is capable in reproducing the main regional patterns and seasonal cycle of surface
variables. The present reference simulation constitutes the basis to examine the climate change simulations resulting from
the A2 and B2 forcing scenarios which are being reported in a separate study. 相似文献
956.
Emilie Vanvyve Nicholas Hall Christophe Messager Stéphanie Leroux Jean-Pascal van Ypersele 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(2-3):191-202
Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference
is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of
the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run
over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between
the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for
analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence
limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and
wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence
in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than
for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. 相似文献
957.
César A. Zen Vasconcellos Dimiter Hadjimichef Magno Machado Benno Bodmann Marcelo Netz-Marzola Geovane Naysinger Mariana Vargas Magaña Peter O. Hess Horst Stöcker Steven Gullberg Remo Ruffini 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2024,345(2-3):e240029
We outline our experience in organizing the first edition of the Workshop on Matter, Astrophysics, Gravitation, Ions and Cosmology, held in virtual and in-person format, denominated MAGIC23, held from 6 to 10 March, 2023, in Praia do Rosa, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The event aimed to bring together leading academic scientists, professors, students, and research scholars for exchanging experiences and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, practical challenges, and experimental and theoretical solutions adopted in the investigation fields within the scope of the meeting. The workshop offered to the participants a platform for scientific and academic projects, partnerships, and presentation of high-quality research contributions describing original and unpublished results on topics related to matter, astrophysics, gravitation, ions, and cosmology. 相似文献
958.
Milton Rojas Gamarra Mônica Baptista Pereira Estrázulas Steven R. Gullberg César A. Zen Vasconcellos 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2024,345(2-3):e230181
Inferences are made about the relationship that existed between the Ushnus, pyramid-shaped, terraced structures used by the Incas in the most important ceremonies of the Tawantinsuyo, and Inka Astronomy. We draw attention to Ayni, Kawsaypacha, Duality, and Tinkuy principles, multidimensional codes of conduct and wisdom that are at the root of the Andean cosmovision and on their perception of the world and the Cosmos. These principles, examined as postulates, allow to elaborate axiomatic propositions to identify the Ushnus with ancient Astronomy practices. In a complementary statement, starting from a bi-conditional proposition, we may infer through reciprocal corollaries that the Inka earliest roots to a holistic learning and educational ambient in the Tawantinsuyo was not elitist, instead it was based on a epistemological construct that differs from the corresponding Western educational ambients. An epistemological and cognitive approach allows to identify an ancient elaborate process of knowledge construction, based on the four fundamental principles, corresponding to different levels of assimilation and comprehension. As a complementary aspect, we identify some of the most preserved Ushnus of the Inka “Empire.” Then we complement this contribution with a broader interpretation for the Ushnus. 相似文献
959.
A Parameterization of Dry Thermals and Shallow Cumuli for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
Julien Pergaud Valéry Masson Sylvie Malardel Fleur Couvreux 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,132(1):83-106
For numerical weather prediction models and models resolving deep convection, shallow convective ascents are subgrid processes
that are not parameterized by classical local turbulent schemes. The mass flux formulation of convective mixing is now largely
accepted as an efficient approach for parameterizing the contribution of larger plumes in convective dry and cloudy boundary
layers. We propose a new formulation of the EDMF scheme (for Eddy Diffusivity\Mass Flux) based on a single updraft that improves
the representation of dry thermals and shallow convective clouds and conserves a correct representation of stratocumulus in
mesoscale models. The definition of entrainment and detrainment in the dry part of the updraft is original, and is specified
as proportional to the ratio of buoyancy to vertical velocity. In the cloudy part of the updraft, the classical buoyancy sorting
approach is chosen. The main closure of the scheme is based on the mass flux near the surface, which is proportional to the
sub-cloud layer convective velocity scale w
*. The link with the prognostic grid-scale cloud content and cloud cover and the projection on the non- conservative variables
is processed by the cloud scheme. The validation of this new formulation using large-eddy simulations focused on showing the
robustness of the scheme to represent three different boundary layer regimes. For dry convective cases, this parameterization
enables a correct representation of the countergradient zone where the mass flux part represents the top entrainment (IHOP
case). It can also handle the diurnal cycle of boundary-layer cumulus clouds (EUROCS\ARM) and conserve a realistic evolution
of stratocumulus (EUROCS\FIRE). 相似文献
960.
J. Angel Fernández Angela Ares Ana Rey-Asensio Alejo Carballeira Jesus R. Aboal 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2009,63(1):1-11
The effects of growth of autoirrigated, shaded transplants of Pseudoscleropodium purum on the quantification of tissue concentrations of Cd, Cu, Hg, V and Zn, were investigated in 4 exposure periods, each of
56 days, at 7 sampling sites (contaminated and uncontaminated). Concentrations of the elements in the basal portions of the
moss shoots were compared with the concentrations in the portions of the shoots that grew during the exposure period. Mercury
and V were present at lower concentrations in the new portions of the shoots than in the basal portions, whereas the opposite
was true for Cd, Cu and Zn. The magnitude of error introduced by growth was not negligible, and in some cases was higher than
40%, relative to the results obtained by analysis of the whole shoot. Devitalization of moss prior to its use as transplant
material is recommended to avoid growth of the plant during the exposure period. 相似文献