Fine-scale rainfall over New Caledonia under climate change     

Dutheil  Cyril  Menkes  C.  Lengaigne  M.  Vialard  J.  Peltier  A.  Bador  M.  Petit  X. 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(1-2):87-108

Climate Dynamics - Global climate models projections indicate no clear future rainfall changes over the Southwestern Pacific islands in response to anthropogenic forcing. Yet, these models have low...  相似文献   

Mechanisms controlling warm water volume interannual variations in the equatorial Pacific: diabatic versus adiabatic processes   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

M. Lengaigne  U. Hausmann  G. Madec  C. Menkes  J. Vialard  J. M. Molines 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(5-6):1031-1046

Variations of the volume of warm water above the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific are a good predictor of ENSO (El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation) and are thought to be critical for its preconditioning and development. In this study, the Warm Water Volume (WWV) interannual variability is analysed using forced general circulation model experiments and an original method for diagnosing processes responsible for WWV variations. The meridional recharge/discharge to higher latitudes drives 60% of the ENSO-related equatorial WWV variations, while diabatic processes in the eastern equatorial Pacific account for the remaining 40%. Interior meridional transport is partially compensated by western boundary transports, especially in the southern hemisphere. Diabatic equatorial WWV formation (depletions) during La Ni?a (El Ni?o) are explained by enhanced (reduced) diathermal transport through enhanced (reduced) vertical mixing and penetrating solar forcing at the 20°C isotherm depth. The respective contribution of diabatic and adiabatic processes during build-ups/depletions strongly varies from event-to-event. The WWV build-up during neutral ENSO phases (e.g. 1980–1982) is almost entirely controlled by meridional recharge, providing a text-book example for the recharge/discharge oscillator’s theory. On the other hand, diabatic processes are particularly active during the strongest La Ni?a events (1984, 1988, 1999), contributing to more than 70% of the WWV build-up, with heating by penetrative solar fluxes explaining as much as 30% of the total build-up due to a very shallow thermocline in the eastern Pacific. This study does not invalidate the recharge/discharge oscillator theory but rather emphasizes the importance of equatorial diabatic processes and western boundary transports in controlling WWV changes.  相似文献   

Ocean feedback to tropical cyclones: climatology and processes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Swen Jullien  Patrick Marchesiello  Christophe E. Menkes  Jérôme Lefèvre  Nicolas C. Jourdain  Guillaume Samson  Matthieu Lengaigne 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2831-2854

This study presents the first multidecadal and coupled regional simulation of cyclonic activity in the South Pacific. The long-term integration of state-of the art models provides reliable statistics, missing in usual event studies, of air–sea coupling processes controlling tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The coupling effect is analyzed through comparison of the coupled model with a companion forced experiment. Cyclogenesis patterns in the coupled model are closer to observations with reduced cyclogenesis in the Coral Sea. This provides novel evidence of air–sea coupling impacting not only intensity but also spatial cyclogenesis distribution. Storm-induced cooling and consequent negative feedback is stronger for regions of shallow mixed layers and thin or absent barrier layers as in the Coral Sea. The statistical effect of oceanic mesoscale eddies on TC intensity (crossing over them 20 % of the time) is also evidenced. Anticyclonic eddies provide an insulating effect against storm-induced upwelling and mixing and appear to reduce sea surface temperature (SST) cooling. Cyclonic eddies on the contrary tend to promote strong cooling, particularly through storm-induced upwelling. Air–sea coupling is shown to have a significant role on the intensification process but the sensitivity of TCs to SST cooling is nonlinear and generally lower than predicted by thermodynamic theories: about 15 rather than over 30 hPa °C^?1 and only for strong cooling. The reason is that the cooling effect is not instantaneous but accumulated over time within the TC inner-core. These results thus contradict the classical evaporation-wind feedback process as being essential to intensification and rather emphasize the role of macro-scale dynamics.  相似文献