Non‐stationarity in rainfall and temperature in the Murray Darling Basin     

M. Kamruzzaman  S. Beecham  A. V. Metcalfe 《水文研究》2011,25(10):1659-1675

Two analyses, one based on multiple regression and the other using the Holt–Winters algorithm, for investigating non‐stationarity in environmental time series are presented. They are applied to monthly rainfall and average maximum temperature time series of lengths between 38 and 108 years, from six stations in the Murray Darling Basin and four cities in eastern Australia. The first analysis focuses on the residuals after fitting regression models which allow for seasonal variation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The models provided evidence that rainfall is reduced during periods of negative SOI, and that the interaction between PDO and SOI pronounces this effect during periods of negative PDO. Following this, there was no evidence of any trend in either the PDO or SOI time series. The residuals from this regression were analysed with a cumulative sum (CUSUM) technique, and the statistical significance was assessed using a Monte Carlo method. The residuals were also analysed for volatility, autocorrelation, long‐range dependence and spatial correlation. For all ten rainfall and temperature time series, CUSUM plots of the residuals provided evidence of non‐stationarity for both temperature and rainfall, after removing seasonal effects and the effects of PDO and SOI. Rainfall was generally lower in the first half of the twentieth century and higher during the second half. However, it decreased again over the last 10 years. This pattern was highlighted with 5‐year moving average plots. The residuals for temperature showed a complementary pattern with increases in temperature corresponding to decreased rainfall. The second analysis decomposed the rainfall and temperature time series into random variation about an underlying level, trend and additive seasonal effects and changes in the level; trend and seasonal effects were tracked using a Holt–Winters algorithm. The results of this analysis were qualitatively similar to those of the regression analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Groundwater cooling of a supercomputer in Perth,Western Australia: hydrogeological simulations and thermal sustainability     

Heather A. Sheldon  Peter M. Schaubs  Praveen K. Rachakonda  Michael G. Trefry  Lynn B. Reid  Daniel R. Lester  Guy Metcalfe  Thomas Poulet  Klaus Regenauer-Lieb 《Hydrogeology Journal》2015,23(8):1831-1849

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Tectonic framework and Phanerozoic evolution of Sundaland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ian Metcalfe 《Gondwana Research》2011,19(1):3-21

Sundaland comprises a heterogeneous collage of continental blocks derived from the India–Australian margin of eastern Gondwana and assembled by the closure of multiple Tethyan and back-arc ocean basins now represented by suture zones. The continental core of Sundaland comprises a western Sibumasu block and an eastern Indochina–East Malaya block with an island arc terrane, the Sukhothai Island Arc System, comprising the Linchang, Sukhothai and Chanthaburi blocks sandwiched between. This island arc formed on the margin of Indochina–East Malaya, and then separated by back-arc spreading in the Permian. The Jinghong, Nan–Uttaradit and Sra Kaeo Sutures represent this closed back-arc basin. The Palaeo-Tethys is represented to the west by the Changning–Menglian, Chiang Mai/Inthanon and Bentong–Raub Suture Zones. The West Sumatra block, and possibly the West Burma block, rifted and separated from Gondwana, along with Indochina and East Malaya in the Devonian and were accreted to the Sundaland core in the Triassic. West Burma is now considered to be probably Cathaysian in nature and similar to West Sumatra, from which it was separated by opening of the Andaman Sea basin. South West Borneo and/or East Java-West Sulawesi are now tentatively identified as the missing “Argoland” which must have separated from NW Australia in the Jurassic and these were accreted to SE Sundaland in the Cretaceous. Revised palaeogeographic reconstructions illustrating the tectonic and palaeogeographic evolution of Sundaland and adjacent regions are presented.  相似文献   

Palaeolimnology of the Upper Lerma Basin,Central Mexico: a record of climatic change and anthropogenic disturbance since 11 600 yr BP     

Sarah E. Metcalfe  F. Alayne Street-Perrott  R. Alan Perrott  Douglas D. Harkness 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1991,5(3):197-218

The Upper Río Lerma valley, Estado de México, is a high-altitude (2575 m a.s.l.) basin floored by Quaternary alluvial, lacustrine and pyroclastic deposits. Two pits were dug in the swampy bed of the recently drained L. Chiconahuapan. Ten ¹⁴C dates have been obtained from these profiles, which consist of diatomaceous organic lake muds and peats with intercalated tephras. The oldest unit is the Upper Toluca Pumice (Tripartite Ash), dated 11 580±70 yr BP. Analyses of sediment chemistry, loss-onignition, mineral-magnetic variations and subfossil diatom assemblages provide evidence of environmental changes since this date. Alkaline ponds or freshwater lakes developed during the intervals 9000–6000, 6000–5500, 3600–1400 and 800–0 yr BP, and acidic marshes or bogs during the intervening dry episodes. An important phase of accelerated erosion, beginning around 3100 yr BP and culminating around 1400–700 yr BP, appears to have been associated with human disturbance of the basin soils.  相似文献   

Galaxy number counts – V. Ultradeep counts: the Herschel and Hubble Deep Fields     

N. Metcalfe  T. Shanks  A. Campos  H. J. McCracken †  R. Fong 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,323(4):795-830

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Pollen‐ and diatom based environmental history since the Last Glacial Maximum from the Andean core Fúquene‐7, Colombia     

Maria Isabel Vélez  Henry Hooghiemstra  Sarah Metcalfe  Ignacio Martínez  Herman Mommersteeg 《第四纪科学杂志》2003,18(1):17-30

The late Pleistocene–Holocene ecological and limnological history of Lake Fúquene (2580 m a.s.l.), in the Colombian Andes, is reconstructed on the basis of diatom, pollen and sediment analyses of the upper 7 m of the core Fúquene‐7. Time control is provided by 11 accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) ¹⁴C dates ranging from 19 670 ± 240 to 6040 ± 60 yr BP. In this paper we present the evolution of the lake and its surroundings. Glacial times were cold and dry, lake‐levels were low and the area was surrounded by paramo and subparamo vegetation. Late‐glacial conditions were warm and humid. The El Abra Stadial, a Younger Dryas equivalent, is reflected by a gap in the sedimentary record, a consequence of the cessation of deposition owing to a drop in lake‐level. The early Holocene was warm and humid; at this time the lake reached its maximum extension and was surrounded by Andean forest. The onset of the drier climate prevailing today took place in the middle Holocene, a process that is reflected earlier in the diatom and sediment records than in the pollen records. In the late Holocene human activity reduced the forest and transformed the landscape. Climate patterns from the Late‐glacial and throughout the Holocene, as represented in our record, are similar to other records from Colombia and northern South America (the Caribbean, Venezuela and Panama) and suggest that the changes in lake‐level were the result of precipitation variations driven by latitudinal shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ISO observations of the dusty quasar BR 1202−0725     

K.J. Leech  L. Metcalfe  B. Altieri 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,328(4):1125-1128

We present mid- and far-infrared photometry of the high-redshift     dusty quasar BR 1202−0725. The quasar was detected in the near-infrared, at a flux level     consistent with an average radio-quiet quasar at its redshift. Only upper limits for the emission were obtained in the far-infrared. These upper limits, when combined with data from ground-based telescopes, are the first direct evidence for a turnover in the far-infrared emission, and hence confirm that a blackbody dominates the spectral energy distribution at far-infrared wavelengths. This blackbody is most probably cool dust, constrained to have a temperature below 80 K, for a β of 1.5.  相似文献   

Calibration of an integrated land surface process and radiobrightness (LSP/R) model during summertime     

Jasmeet Judge  Anthony W. England  John R. Metcalfe  David McNichol  Barry E. Goodison 《Advances in water resources》2008

In this study, a soil vegetation and atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model was linked with a microwave emission model to simulate microwave signatures for different terrain during summertime, when the energy and moisture fluxes at the land surface are strong. The integrated model, land surface process/radiobrightness (LSP/R), was forced with weather and initial conditions observed during a field experiment. It simulated the fluxes and brightness temperatures for bare soil and brome grass in the Northern Great Plains. The model estimates of soil temperature and moisture profiles and terrain brightness temperatures were compared with the observed values. Overall, the LSP model provides realistic estimates of soil moisture and temperature profiles to be used with a microwave model. The maximum mean differences and standard deviations between the modeled and the observed temperatures (canopy and soil) were 2.6 K and 6.8 K, respectively; those for the volumetric soil moisture were 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Brightness temperatures at 19 GHz matched well with the observations for bare soil, when a rough surface model was incorporated indicating reduced dielectric sensitivity to soil moisture by surface roughness. The brightness temperatures of the brome grass matched well with the observations indicating that a simple emission model was sufficient to simulate accurate brightness temperatures for grass typical of that region and surface roughness was not a significant issue for grass-covered soil at 19 GHz. Such integrated SVAT-microwave models allow for direct assimilation of microwave observations and can also be used to understand sensitivity of microwave signatures to changes in weather forcings and soil conditions for different terrain types.  相似文献   

Assessing the impact of distributed snow water equivalent calibration and assimilation of Copernicus snow water equivalent on modelled snow and streamflow performance     

Andy D. Beaton  Ming Han  Bryan A. Tolson  James M. Buttle  Robert A. Metcalfe 《水文研究》2024,38(2):e15075

Accuracy of the Copernicus snow water equivalent (SWE) product and the impact of SWE calibration and assimilation on modelled SWE and streamflow was evaluated. Daily snowpack measurements were made at 12 locations from 2016 to 2019 across a 4104 km² mixed-forest basin in the Great Lakes region of central Ontario, Canada. Sub-basin daily SWE calculated from these sites, observed discharge, and lake levels were used to calibrate a hydrologic model developed using the Raven modelling framework. Copernicus SWE was bias corrected during the melt period using mean bias subtraction and was compared to daily basin average SWE calculated from the measured data. Bias corrected Copernicus SWE was assimilated into the models using a range of parameters and the parameterizations from the model calibration. The bias corrected Copernicus product agreed well with measured data and provided a good estimate of mean basin SWE demonstrating that the product shows promise for hydrology applications within the study region. Calibration to spatially distributed SWE substantially improved the basin scale SWE estimate while only slightly degrading the flow simulation demonstrating the value of including SWE in a multi-objective calibration formulation. The particle filter experiments yielded the best SWE estimation but moderately degraded the flow simulation. The particle filter experiments constrained by the calibrated snow parameters produced similar results to the experiments using the upper and lower bounds indicating that, in this study, model calibration prior to assimilation was not valuable. The calibrated models exhibited varying levels of skill in estimating SWE but demonstrated similar streamflow performance. This indicates that basin outlet streamflow can be accurately estimated using a model with a poor representation of distributed SWE. This may be sufficient for applications where estimating flow is the primary water management objective. However, in applications where understanding the physical processes of snow accumulation, melt and streamflow generation are important, such as assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, accurate representations of SWE are required and can be improved via multi-objective calibration or data assimilation, as demonstrated in this study.  相似文献   

The local hole in the galaxy distribution: new optical evidence     

G. S. Busswell  T. Shanks  P. J. Outram  W. J. Frith  N. Metcalfe  R. Fong 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,354(4):991-1004

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