Debiased Orbital and Absolute Magnitude Distribution of the Near-Earth Objects     

William F. Bottke Jr.Alessandro Morbidelli  Robert JedickeJean-Marc Petit  Harold F. LevisonPatrick Michel  Travis S. Metcalfe 《Icarus》2002,156(2):399-433

The orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of the near-Earth objects (NEOs) is difficult to compute, partly because only a modest fraction of the entire NEO population has been discovered so far, but also because the known NEOs are biased by complicated observational selection effects. To circumvent these problems, we created a model NEO population which was fit to known NEOs discovered or accidentally rediscovered by Spacewatch. Our method was to numerically integrate thousands of test particles from five source regions that we believe provide most NEOs to the inner Solar System. Four of these source regions are in or adjacent to the main asteroid belt, while the fifth one is associated with the transneptunian disk. The nearly isotropic comets, which include the Halley-type comets and the long-period comets, were not included in our model. Test bodies from our source regions that passed into the NEO region (perihelia q<1.3 AU and aphelia Q≥0.983 AU) were tracked until they were eliminated by striking the Sun or a planet or were ejected out of the inner Solar System. These integrations were used to create five residence time probability distributions in semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination space (one for each source). These distributions show where NEOs from a given source are statistically most likely to be located. Combining these five residence time probability distributions with an NEO absolute magnitude distribution computed from previous work and a probability function representing the observational biases associated with the Spacewatch NEO survey, we produced an NEO model population that could be fit to 138 NEOs discovered or accidentally rediscovered by Spacewatch. By testing a range of possible source combinations, a best-fit NEO model was computed which (i) provided the debiased orbital and absolute magnitude distributions for the NEO population and (ii) indicated the relative importance of each NEO source region.Our best-fit model is consistent with 960±120 NEOs having H<18 and a<7.4 AU. Approximately 44% (as of December 2000) have been found so far. The limits on this estimate are conditional, since our model does not include nearly isotropic comets. Nearly isotropic comets are generally restricted to a Tisserand parameter (with respect to Jupiter) of T<2, such that few are believed to have a<7.4 AU. Our computed NEO orbital distribution, which is valid for bodies as faint as H<22, indicates that the Amor, Apollo, and Aten populations contain 32±1%, 62±1%, and 6±1% of the NEO population, respectively. We estimate that the population of objects completely inside Earth's orbit (IEOs) arising from our source regions is 2% the size of the NEO population. This value does not include the putative Vulcanoid population located inside Mercury's orbit. Overall, our model predicts that ∼61% of the NEO population comes from the inner main belt (a<2.5 AU), ∼24% comes from the central main belt (2.5<a<2.8 AU), ∼8% comes from the outer main belt (a>2.8 AU), and ∼6% comes from the Jupiter-family comet region (2<T?3). The steady-state population in each NEO source region, as well as the influx rates needed to replenish each region, were calculated as a by-product of our method. The population of extinct comets in the Jupiter-family comet region was also computed.  相似文献   

Gondwanaland origin, dispersion, and accretion of East and Southeast Asian continental terranes   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

I. Metcalfe   《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》1994,7(3-4)

East and Southeast Asia is a complex assembly of allochthonous continental terranes, island arcs, accretionary complexes and small ocean basins. The boundaries between continental terranes are marked by major fault zones or by sutures recognized by the presence of ophiolites, mélanges and accretionary complexes. Stratigraphical, sedimentological, paleobiogeographical and paleomagnetic data suggest that all of the East and Southeast Asian continental terranes were derived directly or indirectly from the Iran-Himalaya-Australia margin of Gondwanaland. The evolution of the terranes is one of rifting from Gondwanaland, northwards drift and amalgamation/accretion to form present day East Asia. Three continental silvers were rifted from the northeast margin of Gondwanaland in the Silurian-Early Devonian (North China, South China, Indochina/East Malaya, Qamdo-Simao and Tarim terranes), Early-Middle Permian (Sibumasu, Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes) and Late Jurassic (West Burma terrane, Woyla terranes). The northwards drift of these terranes was effected by the opening and closing of three successive Tethys oceans, the Paleo-Tethys, Meso-Tethys and Ceno-Tethys. Terrane assembly took place between the Late Paleozoic and Cenozoic, but the precise timings of amalgamation and accretion are still contentious. Amalgamation of South China and Indochina/East Malaya occurred during the Early Carboniferous along the Song Ma Suture to form “Cathaysialand”. Cathaysialand, together with North China, formed a large continental region within the Paleotethys during the Late Carboniferous and Permian. Paleomagnetic data indicate that this continental region was in equatorial to low northern paleolatitudes which is consistent with the tropical Cathaysian flora developed on these terranes. The Tarim terrane (together with the Kunlun, Qaidam and Ala Shan terranes) accreted to Kazakhstan/Siberia in the Permian. This was followed by the suturing of Sibumasu and Qiangtang to Cathaysialand in the Late Permian-Early Triassic, largely closing the Paleo-Tethys. North and South China were amalgamated in the Late Triassic-Early Jurassic and finally welded to Laurasia around the same time. The Lhasa terrane accreted to the Sibumasu-Qiangtang terrane in the Late Jurassic and the Kurosegawa terrane of Japan, interpreted to be derived from Australian Gondwanaland, accreted to Japanese Eurasia, also in the Late Jurassic. The West Burma and Woyla terranes drifted northwards during the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous as the Ceno-Tethys opened and the Meso-Tethys was destroyed by subduction beneath Eurasia and were accreted to proto-Southeast Asia in the Early to Late Cretaceous. The Southwest Borneo and Semitau terranes amalgamated to each other and accreted to Indochina/East Malaya in the Late Cretaceous and the Hainanese terranes probably accreted to South China sometime in the Cretaceous.  相似文献   

The influence of storm characteristics and catchment conditions on extreme flood response : A case study based on the brue river basin,U.K.     

A. Suyanto  P. E. O'Connell  A. V. Metcalfe 《Surveys in Geophysics》1995,16(2):201-225

Methods for estimating the magnitude of extreme floods are reviewed. A method which combines a probabilistic storm transposition technique with a physically-based distributed rainfallrunoff model is described. Synthetic storms with detailed spatial and temporal distributions are generated and applied to the calibrated model of the Brue river basin, U.K. (area 135 km²). The variability of catchment response due to storm characteristics (storm area, storm duration, storm movement, storm shape and within storm variation) and initial catchment wetness conditions is investigated. A probabilistic approach to estimating the return periods of extreme catchment responses is suggested.  相似文献   

Redox front formation in an uplifting sedimentary rock sequence: An analogue for redox-controlling processes in the geosphere around deep geological repositories for radioactive waste     

H. Yoshida  R. Metcalfe  K. Yamamoto  Y. Murakami  D. Hoshii  A. Kanekiyo  T. Naganuma  T. Hayashi 《Applied Geochemistry》2008,23(8):2364-2381

Subsurface redox fronts control the mobilization and fixation of many trace elements, including potential pollutants such as certain radionuclides. Any safety assessment for a deep geological repository for radioactive wastes needs to take into account adequately the long-term redox processes in the geosphere surrounding the repository. To build confidence in understanding these processes, a redox front in a reduced siliceous sedimentary rock distributed in an uplifting area in Japan has been studied in detail. Geochemical analyses show increased concentrations of Fe and trace elements, including rare earth elements (REEs), at the redox front, even though concentrations of reduced rock matrix constituents show little change. Detailed SEM observations revealed that fossilized microorganisms composed of amorphous granules made exclusively of Fe and Si occur in the rock’s pore space. Microbial 16S rDNA analysis suggests that there is presently a zonation of different bacterial groups within the redox band, and bacterial zonation played an important role in the concentration of Fe-oxyhydroxides at the redox front. These water–rock–microbe interactions can be considered analogous to the processes occurring in the redox fronts that would develop around geological repositories for radioactive waste. Once formed, the Fe-oxyhydroxides within such a front would be preserved even after reducing conditions resume following repository closure.  相似文献   

Do tagging experiments tell the truth? Using electronic tags to evaluate conventional tagging data   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Bolle  Loes J.; Hunter  Ewan; Rijnsdorp  Adriaan D.; Pastoors  Martin A.; Metcalfe  Julian D.; Reynolds  John D. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(2):236-246

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Frequency analysis of rainfall and streamflow extremes accounting for seasonal and climatic partitions     

Michael Leonard  Andrew Metcalfe  Martin Lambert 《Journal of Hydrology》2008,348(1-2):135-147

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Organochlorine contaminants in a coastal lagoon in Argentina: Analysis of sediment, crabs, and cordgrass from two different habitats     

M. L. Menone  A. Bortolus  F. Botto  J. E. Aizpún de Moreno  V. J. Moreno  O. Iribarne  T. L. Metcalfe  C. D. Metcalfe 《Estuaries and Coasts》2000,23(4):583-592

Burrowing crabs (Chasmagnathus granulata), sediment collected from inside and outside crab burrows as well as outside the crab bed, and cordgrass (Spartina densiflora) were collected from intertidal mudflat and cordgrass marsh habitats and analyzed for concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners and organochlorine (OC) compounds to test the hypothesis that there are differences in the distribution and bioaccumulation of OC contaminants in coastal lagoon habitats in Argentina. PCB concentrations were relatively low, although the penta- and hexachlorobiphenyl detected in sediments and biota indicated that there had been direct inputs of PCBs into the ecosystem. Heptachlor epoxide, dieldrin, endosulfan sulphate, chlordane compounds, DDT and metabolites, and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) were the major pesticides detected in sediment and biota samples. When lipid-normalized concentration data for all OC pesticides in crabs were summed together (ΣOCC), there were higher concentrations in crabs from the cordgrass habitat in comparison to crabs from the mudflat. In sediment samples, there were no significant differences in percent organic matter of marsh and mudflat sediments, but the concentrations of ΣOCC normalized to organic carbon were higher in the sediments collected in the cordgrass marsh. Samples of rhizomes and roots from the cordgrass contained high concentrations of OC compounds and it was estimated that 2.4 kg of heptachlor epoxide, the most abundant OC pesticide, may be present in the total cordgrass root biomass in Mar Chiquita lagoon. These data indicated that the cordgrass in coastal lagoon environments is an important factor in determining the distribution of persistent contaminants, and that a significant portion of the total burden of these hydrophobic compounds may be deposited in cordgrass biomass.  相似文献   

Ultimate sensitivity with ISOCAM     

B. Altieri  L. Metcalfe  J. Blommaert  D. Elbaz  J.-L. Starck  H. Aussel 《Experimental Astronomy》2000,10(2-3):291-303

We discuss the instrumental factors which constrain the sensitivity limits of the mid-infrared camera (ISOCAM) of ESA's Infrared Space Observatory (ISO). The observing strategy judged to be best suited to faint-source detection is described. A data analysis technique adapted to the extraction of the faintest point-sources is discussed. We report the application of these techniques to an extremely deep mid-IR observation of high redshift gravitationally lensed objects, in two filters, looking through a lensing galaxy cluster.  相似文献   

Influence of exposure history on vitellogenin induction in medaka: a case of ‘estrogen memory’?     

C. M. Foran  C. D. Metcalfe  T. L. Metcalfe  W. H. Benson 《Marine environmental research》2000,50(1-5)

In this study, we exposed female medaka to aqueous solutions of o,p′-DDT until tissues residues reached approximately 100 g/g. Male offspring of exposed females and unexposed males that were raised to 6 months of age differed from untreated controls in their response to subsequent 4-day static exposure to 17-β-estradiol (E2; 12 μg/l as determined by steroid EIA). Homogenized liver samples from males from DDT treatments, females from DDT treatments, control males and control females produced two vitellogenin bands on a Western blot with no qualitative differences in band size and location between the groups. To quantify the relative level of vitellogenin, 5 μg of protein from each sample was analyzed by slot blot. A statistical comparison revealed a significant difference in optical density of the slots between control males and DDT exposed males (analysis of variance, n=18, P=0.021; Tukey test, n=9, P=0.047) indicating that previous transgenerational exposure to DDT enhanced the vitellogenic response to E2 exposure in males. These results indicate that exposure to estrogenic chemicals may produce an ‘estrogen memory’ which potentiates the response to a subsequent exposure event.  相似文献   

HydroBlocks: a field‐scale resolving land surface model for application over continental extents          下载免费PDF全文

Nathaniel W. Chaney  Peter Metcalfe  Eric F. Wood 《水文研究》2016,30(20):3543-3559

Land surface spatial heterogeneity plays a significant role in the water, energy, and carbon cycles over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Until now, the representation of this spatial heterogeneity in land surface models has been limited to over simplistic schemes because of computation and environmental data limitations. This study introduces HydroBlocks – a novel land surface model that represents field‐scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs). HydroBlocks is a coupling between the Noah‐MP land surface model and the Dynamic TOPMODEL hydrologic model. The HRUs are defined by clustering proxies of the drivers of spatial heterogeneity using high‐resolution land data. The clustering mechanism allows for each HRU's results to be mapped out in space, facilitating field‐scale application and validation. The Little Washita watershed in the USA is used to assess HydroBlocks' performance and added benefit from traditional land surface models. A comparison between the semi‐distributed and fully distributed versions of the model suggests that using 1000 HRUs is sufficient to accurately approximate the fully distributed solution. A preliminary evaluation of model performance using available in situ soil moisture observations suggests that HydroBlocks is generally able to reproduce the observed spatial and temporal dynamics of soil moisture. Model performance deficiencies can be primarily attributed to parameter uncertainty. HydroBlocks' ability to explicitly resolve field‐scale spatial heterogeneity while only requiring an increase in computation of one to two orders of magnitude when compared with existing land surface models is encouraging – ensemble field‐scale land surface modelling over continental extents is now possible. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献