The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael F. Wehner  Richard L. Smith  G. Bala  Phillip Duffy 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(2-3):241-247

We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.  相似文献   

The development of extremely dry surface air due to vertical exchanges under the exit region of a jet streak     

Michael L. Kaplan  C. Huang  Y.-L. Lin  J. J. Charney 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2008,102(1-2):63-85

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Dynamical Tropopause Variability and Potential Vorticity Streamers in the Northern Hemisphere —— A Climatological Analysis     

Olivia MARTIUS  Cornelia SCHWIERZ  Michael SPRENGER 《大气科学进展》2008,25(3):367-380

This study presents a 44-year climatology of potential vorticity （PV） streamers in the Northern Hemisphere based upon analyses of the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. A comparison to an existing 15-year climatology yields very good agreement in the locations of PV streamer frequency maxima, but some differences are found in the amplitude of frequencies. The climatology is assessed with the focus on links between PV streamer frequencies and the synoptic- and planetary-scale variability of the dynamical tropopause.
A comprehensive overview is provided on where （zonally） and when （seasonally） short-term variability throughout the extra-tropical and sub-tropical tropopause is enhanced or reduced. Several key processes that influence this variability are discussed. Baroclinic processes, for example, determine the variability in the storm-track areas in winter, whereas the Asian summer monsoon significantly influences the variability over Asia.
The paper also describes links between the frequency of PV streamers in the extra-tropical and subtropical tropopause and three major northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns. The observed changes in the PV streamer frequencies are closely related to concomitant variations of PV and its gradient within the tropopause region. During opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation the location of the streamer frequency maxima shifts significantly in the Atlantic and European region in both the extra-tropics and subtropics. The influence of ENSO on the streamer frequencies is most pronounced in the subtropical Pacific.  相似文献   

Holocene climate evolution of the Ugii Nuur basin,Mongolia     

Wolfgang SCHWANGHART  Brigitta SCH  "UTT  Michael WALTHER 《大气科学进展》2008,25(6):986-998

In order to evaluate the Holocene palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Ugii Nuur basin, central Mongolia, investigations on chemical and mineralogical properties of lacustrine sediments were carried out on a 630 cm sediment core from lake Ugii Nuur. The interpretation of the record is based on a principal component analysis （PCA） of the elemental composition of the samples. The results show that lacustrine deposition started at 10.6 kyr BP. Low lake level conditions were identified during the Early Holocene （10.6-7.9 kyr BP）. The Mid Holocene （7.9-4.2 kyr BP） was characterized by generally higher lake levels and thus higher moisture supply, but it experienced strong climatic fluctuations. Arid conditions prevailed from 4.2-2.8 kyr BP and were followed by a stable, more humid phase until today.  相似文献   

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways     

Amy Solomon  Sang-Ik Shin  Michael A. Alexander  Julian P. McCreary 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(2-3):315-331

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.  相似文献   

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Till Kuhlbrodt  Stefan Rahmstorf  Kirsten Zickfeld  Frode Bendiksen Vikebø  Svein Sundby  Matthias Hofmann  Peter Michael Link  Alberte Bondeau  Wolfgang Cramer  Carlo Jaeger 《Climatic change》2009,96(4):489-537

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.  相似文献   

Climatic Change Letters inaugural editorial     

Stephen H. Schneider  Michael Oppenheimer 《Climatic change》2009,97(1-2):1-2

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Stratiform Cloud—Inversion Characterization During the Arctic Melt Season   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Joseph Sedlar  Michael Tjernström 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,132(3):455-474

Data collected during July and August from the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001 illustrated a common occurrence of specific-humidity (q) inversions, where moisture increases with height, coinciding with temperature inversions in the central Arctic boundary layer and lower troposphere. Low-level stratiform clouds and their relationship to temperature inversions are examined using radiosonde data and data from a suite of remote sensing instrumentation. Two low-level cloud regimes are identified: the canonical case of stratiform clouds, where the cloud tops are capped by the temperature inversion base (CCI—Clouds Capped by Inversion) and clouds where the cloud tops were found well inside the inversion (CII—Clouds Inside Inversion). The latter case was found to occur more than twice as frequently than the former. The characteristic of the temperature inversion is shown to have an influence on the cloud regime that was supported. Statistical analyses of the cloud regimes using remote sensing instruments suggest that CCI cases tend to be dominated by single-phase liquid cloud droplets; radiative cooling at the cloud top limits the vertical extent of such clouds to the inversion base height. The CII cases, on the other hand, display characteristics that can be divided into two situations—(1) clouds that only slightly penetrate the temperature inversion and exhibit a microphysical signal similar to CCI cases, or (2) clouds that extend higher into the inversion and show evidence of a mixed-phase cloud structure. An important interplay between the mixed-phase structure and an increased potential for turbulent mixing across the inversion base appears to support the lifetime of CII cases existing within the inversion layer.  相似文献   

Ion composition and chemistry in the coma of Comet 1P/Halley—A comparison between Giotto's Ion Mass Spectrometer and our ion-chemical network     

Martin Rubin  Kenneth C. Hansen  Michael R. Combi  Hans Balsiger 《Icarus》2009,199(2):505-519

In order to understand the cometary plasma environment it is important to track the closely linked chemical reactions that dominate ion evolution. We used a coupled MHD ion-chemistry model to analyze previously unpublished Giotto High Intensity Ion Mass Spectrometer (HIS-IMS) data. In this way we study the major species, but we also try to match some minor species like the CH_x and the NH_x groups. Crucial for this match is the model used for the electrons since they are important for ion-electron recombination. To further improve our results we included an enhanced density of supersonic electrons in the ion pile-up region which increases the local electron impact ionization. In this paper we discuss the results for the following important ions: C⁺, CH⁺, CH⁺₂, CH⁺₃, N⁺, NH⁺, NH⁺₂, NH⁺₃, NH⁺₄, O⁺, OH⁺, H₂O⁺, H₃O⁺, CO⁺, HCO⁺, H₃CO⁺, and CH₃OH⁺₂. We also address the inner shock which is very distinctive in our MHD model as well as in the IMS data. It is located just inside the contact surface at approximately 4550 km. Comparisons of the ion bulk flow directions and velocities from our MHD model with the data measured by the HIS-IMS give indication for a solar wind magnetic field direction different from the standard Parker angle at Halley's position. Our ion-chemical network model results are in a good agreement with the experimental data. In order to achieve the presented results we included an additional short lived inner source for the C⁺, CH⁺, and CH⁺₂ ions. Furthermore we performed our simulations with two different production rates to better match the measurements which is an indication for a change and/or an asymmetric pattern (e.g. jets) in the production rate during Giotto's fly-by at Halley's comet.  相似文献   

ALMA and asteroid science     

Michael W. Busch 《Icarus》2009,200(1):347-349

When the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) is completed, it will synthesize angular resolution as fine as 5 milliarcseconds. With such resolution and ALMA's large number of stations and collecting area, it will be possible to rapidly map the shapes, large-scale surface features, and surface temperature distributions of the 700 largest objects in the main asteroid belt and the hundred largest Jupiter Trojans. Such information would provide great insights into the dynamics and history of the asteroid belt, and potentially determine the surface compositions of otherwise spectrally ambiguous objects.  相似文献