Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

Tommaso Carlà  Emanuele Intrieri  Federico Di Traglia  Teresa Nolesini  Giovanni Gigli  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):517-534

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.  相似文献   

The Calatabiano landslide (southern Italy): preliminary GB-InSAR monitoring data and remote 3D mapping   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Luca Lombardi  Massimiliano Nocentini  William Frodella  Teresa Nolesini  Federica Bardi  Emanuele Intrieri  Tommaso Carlà  Lorenzo Solari  Giulia Dotta  Federica Ferrigno  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):685-696

On 24 October 2015, following a period of heavy rainfall, a landslide occurred in the Calatabiano Municipality (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing the rupture of a water pipeline supplying water to the city of Messina. Following this event, approximately 250,000 inhabitants of the city suffered critical water shortages for several days. Consequently, on 6 November 2015, a state of emergency was declared (O.C.D.P. 295/2015) by the National Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). During the emergency management phase, a provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350-m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was constructed to restore water to the city. Furthermore, on 11 November 2015, a landslide remote-sensing monitoring system was installed with the following purposes: (i) analyse the landslide geomorphological and kinematic features in order to assess the residual landslide risk and (ii) support the early warning procedures needed to ensure the safety of the personnel involved in the by-pass construction and the landslide stabilization works. The monitoring system was based on the combined use of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In this work, the preliminary results of the monitoring activities and a remote 3D map of the landslide area are presented.  相似文献   

On the Vp/Vs–Mg# correlation in mantle peridotites: Implications for the identification of thermal and compositional anomalies in the upper mantle     

Juan Carlos Afonso  Giorgio Ranalli  Manel Fernàndez  William L. Griffin  Suzanne Y. O'Reilly  Ulrich Faul 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2010,289(3-4):606-618

We use thermodynamically self-consistent and hybrid methods to analyze the correlation of important physical parameters (e.g. bulk density, elastic moduli) with bulk Mg# and modal composition in mantle peridotites at upper mantle conditions. Temperature (anharmonic and anelastic), pressure and compositional derivatives for all these parameters are evaluated. The results show that the widely used correlations between Vp/Vs and Mg# in peridotites are strictly valid only for garnet-bearing assemblages at temperatures < 900 °C. The correlation breaks down when: i) spinel is the stable Al-rich phase in the assemblage and ii) when anelastic attenuation of seismic velocities becomes important (T ? 900 °C). This implies that the range of applicability of published Vp/Vs–Mg# correlations for the upper mantle is limited to a depth interval between the spinel–garnet phase transition and the 900 °C isotherm. We use numerical simulations to show that this depth interval is virtually nonexistent in lithospheres thinner than ～ 140 km and can comprise up to ～ 50% of the lithospheric mantle in thick (> 220 km) lithospheric domains. In addition, we show that for most of the upper mantle the expected Δ(Vp/Vs) values associated with compositional variations are smaller than the resolution limit of current seismological methods. All these considerations suggest that the Vp/Vs ratio is not a reliable measure of compositional variations and that for large parts of the upper mantle compositional anomalies cannot be separated from thermal anomalies on the basis of seismological studies only. We further confirm that the only reliable indicator of compositional anomalies in a peridotitic mantle is the ratio of density to shear wave velocities (ρ/Vs). Our results demonstrate that geophysical–petrological models (forward or inverse) that model these two fields (i.e. density and Vs) self-consistently within a robust thermodynamic framework are necessary for characterizing the small-scale thermal and compositional structure of the lithosphere and sublithospheric upper mantle.  相似文献   

Biofilm growth and nitrogen uptake responses to increases in nitrate and ammonium availability     

Miquel Ribot  Daniel von Schiller  Francesc Sabater  Eugènia Martí 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2015,77(4):695-707

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The Effect of Shallow Quaternary Deposits on the Shape of the H/V Spectral Ratio     

A. Macau  B. Benjumea  A. Gabàs  S. Figueras  M. Vilà 《Surveys in Geophysics》2015,36(1):185-208

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Insights in the exhumation history of the NW Zagros from bedrock and detrital apatite fission‐track analysis: evidence for a long‐lived orogeny     

Stéphane Homke  Jaume Vergés  Peter Van Der Beek  Manel Fernàndez  Eduard Saura  Luis Barbero  Balazs Badics  Erika Labrin 《Basin Research》2010,22(5):659-680

We present the first fission‐track (FT) thermochronology results for the NW Zagros Belt (SW Iran) in order to identify denudation episodes that occurred during the protracted Zagros orogeny. Samples were collected from the two main detrital successions of the NW Zagros foreland basin: the Palaeocene–early Eocene Amiran–Kashkan succession and the Miocene Agha Jari and Bakhtyari Formations. In situ bedrock samples were furthermore collected in the Sanandaj‐Sirjan Zone. Only apatite fission‐track (AFT) data have been successfully obtained, including 26 ages and 11 track‐length distributions. Five families of AFT ages have been documented from analyses of in situ bedrock and detrital samples: pre‐middle Jurassic at ～171 and ～225 Ma, early–late Cretaceous at ～91 Ma, Maastrichtian at ～66 Ma, middle–late Eocene at ～38 Ma and Oligocene–early Miocene at ～22 Ma. The most widespread middle–late Eocene cooling phase, around ～38 Ma, is documented by a predominant grain‐age population in Agha Jari sediments and by cooling ages of a granitic boulder sample. AFT ages document at least three cooling/denudation periods linked to major geodynamic events related to the Zagros orogeny, during the late Cretaceous oceanic obduction event, during the middle and late Eocene and during the early Miocene. Both late Cretaceous and early Miocene orogenic processes produced bending of the Arabian plate and concomitant foreland deposition. Between the two major flexural foreland episodes, the middle–late Eocene phase mostly produced a long‐lasting slow‐ or nondepositional episode in the inner part of the foreland basin, whereas deposition and tectonics migrated to the NE along the Sanandaj‐Sirjan domain and its Gaveh Rud fore‐arc basin. As evidenced in this study, the Zagros orogeny was long‐lived and multi‐episodic, implying that the timing of accretion of the different tectonic domains that form the Zagros Mountains requires cautious interpretation.  相似文献   

Cold-water coral banks and submarine landslides: a review   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ben De Mol  Veerle Huvenne  Miquel Canals 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2009,98(4):885-899

This paper aims to review the relation between cold-water coral bank development and submarine landslides. Both are common features on continental margins, but so far it has not been reviewed which effect—if at all—they may have upon each other. Indirect and direct relations between coral banks and landslides are evaluated here, based on four case studies: the Magellan Mound Province in the Porcupine Seabight, where fossil coral banks appear partly on top of a buried slide deposit; the Sula Ridge Reef Complex and the Storegga landslide both off mid-Norway; and the Mauritania coral bank province, associated with the Mauritanian Slide Complex. For each of these locations, positive and negative relationships between both features are discussed, based on available datasets. Locally submarine landslides might directly favour coral bank development by creating substratum where corals can settle on, enhancing turbulence due to abrupt seabed morphological variations and, in some cases, causing fluid seepage. In turn, some of these processes may contribute to increased food availability and lower sedimentation rates. Landslides can also affect coral bank development by direct erosion of the coral banks, and by the instantaneous increase of turbidity, which may smother the corals. On the other hand, coral banks might have a stabilising function and delay or stop the headwall retrogradation of submarine landslides. Although local relationships can be deduced from these case studies, no general and direct relationship exists between submarine landslides and cold-water coral banks.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary paleoseismic evidence on the Munébrega half-graben fault (Iberian Range,Spain)     

Francisco Gutiérrez  Eulàlia Masana  Álvaro González  Pedro Lucha  Jesús Guerrero  James P. McCalpin 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2009,98(7):1691-1703

The Munébrega Plio-Quaternary half-graben is a NW-SE trending neotectonic depression located in the central sector of the intraplate Iberian Range (NE Spain). The master fault of the half-graben offsets an Upper Pleistocene pediment deposit, forming an upslope-facing scarp. A trench dug across the fault scarp exposed a 25-m wide deformation zone consisting of graben and horst fault blocks with fissures in the upper part of the scarp, and a monoclinal flexure affected by normal and reverse faults in the lower part of the scarp. We infer a minimum of three faulting events over the past 72 ka, yielding an average (maximum) recurrence interval of 24 ka. The oldest event (72–41 ka) produced an antislope scarp on the relict pediment surface, confining deposition to the downthrown block. Cross-cutting faults affecting sedimentary units deposited in the sediment trap produced by the first event provide evidence for at least two younger events (33–19? ka). The measured cumulative vertical displacement (7.4 m) yield a minimum vertical slip rate of 0.10 ± 0.01 mm/year (2σ error) for the past 72 ka. If the paleoearthquakes ruptured the whole mappable length of the fault (ca. 20 km), they probably had moment magnitudes ca. 6.9 (Stirling et al. Bull Seismol Soc Am, 2002). Such earthquakes would have been more than a magnitude unit larger than the largest ones recorded historically in the Iberian Range. These results suggest that the official seismic hazard assessments, based solely on the historic and instrumental record, may underestimate the seismic hazard in the area.  相似文献   

Bacterial Community Dynamics in a Seagrass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Posidonia oceanica</Emphasis>) Meadow Sediment     

Micaela García-Martínez  Arantxa López-López  María Ll. Calleja  Núria Marbà  Carlos M. Duarte 《Estuaries and Coasts》2009,32(2):276-286

Some traits of the bacterial community dynamics associated to the rhizosphere of the Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica, growing in carbonate sediments, were analyzed during a 2-year period in an enclosed bay of the Balearic Islands. The diversity of the bacterial community was studied by the construction of 16S rDNA clone library. For testing temporal and vertical differences in the abundance of total cells and active Bacteria, we used 4′,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI) staining and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Moreover, some relevant groups of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) were occasionally assessed by FISH. Despite the observed decrease in the total DAPI-stained cells, bacterial counts, and sulfate reduction rates throughout the sampling time, we found an increase in both the pore-water sulfide concentration and the proportion of SRB. Overall, the results revealed a very high bacterial diversity and indicated shifts in bacterial dynamics that could not be related to temperature-dependent factors, suggesting a link between the documented regression of the seagrass meadow and the decline of the microbial community, likely due to large organic matter inputs to the bay.  相似文献   

Estimates of Horizontal Groundwater Flow Velocities in Boreholes     

Martí Bayer-Raich  Anthony Credoz  Jordi Guimerà  Salvador Jordana  Diego Sampietro  Jordi Font-Capó  Nathalie Nief  Matthieu Grossemy 《Ground water》2019,57(4):525-533

Currently, monitoring tools can be deployed in observation boreholes to better assess groundwater flow, flux of dissolved contaminants and their mass discharge in an aquifer. The relationship between horizontal water velocity in observation boreholes and Darcy fluxes in the surrounding aquifer has been studied for natural flow conditions (i.e., no pumping). Interpretation of measurements taken with dilution tests, the colloidal borescope, the Heat Pulse Flowmeter, and other techniques require the conversion of observed borehole velocity u to aquifer Darcy flux q_∞ . This conversion is typically done through a proportionality factor α = u/q_∞ . In experimental studies as well as in theoretical developments, reported values of α vary almost three orders of magnitude (from 0.5 to 10). This large variability in reported values of α could be explained by: (1) unclear distinction between Darcy flux and water seepage velocity, (2) unclear definition of water velocity in the borehole, (3) effects of well screen and the presence of the measurement device itself on the observable velocities, and (4) hydraulic conditions in the borehole annulus. We address (1), (2) from a conceptual/theoretical perspective, and (3) by means of numerical simulations. We show that issue (1) in low porosity aquifers can yield to order-of-magnitude discrepancies in estimates of q_∞ ; (2) may result in discrepancies of up to 50%, and (3) can cause differences up to 20% of water velocity in the borehole void space compared to the theoretical case of an open borehole.  相似文献