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The estimation of site intensity occurrence probabilities in low seismic activity regions has been studied from different points of view. However, no method has been definitively established because several problems arise when macroseismic historical data are incomplete and the active zones are not well determined. The purpose of this paper is to present a method that estimates site occurrence probabilities and at the same time measures the uncertainties inherent in these probabilities in low activity regions. The region to be studied is divided into very broad seismic zones. An exponential intensity probability law is adjusted for each zone and the degree of uncertainty in the assumed incompleteness of the catalogue is evaluated for each intensity. These probabilities are used to establish what may be termed ‘prior site occurrence models’. A Bayesian method is used to improve ‘prior models’ and to obtain the ‘posterior site occurrence models’. Epicentre locations are used to recover spatial information lost in the prior broad zoning. This Bayesian correction permits the use of specific attenuation for different events and may take into account, by means of conservative criteria, epicentre location errors. Following Bayesian methods, probabilities are assumed to be random variables and their distribution may be used to estimate the degree of uncertainty arising from (a) the statistical variance of estimators, (b) catalogue incompleteness and (c) mismatch of data to prior assumptions such as Poisson distribution for events and exponential distribution for intensities. The results are maps of probability and uncertainty for each intensity. These maps exhibit better spatial definition than those obtained by means of simple, broad zones. Some results for Catalonia (NE of Iberian Peninsula) are shown.  相似文献   
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Summary A principal component analysis (PCA) based on a network including 179 pluviometric gauges is attempted in order to describe the main patterns governing precipitation in Catalonia (NE Spain). This PCA procedure is applied to the interstation covariance matrix and component loadings are then deduced from it and extensively interpreted. PCA results are used immediately after in a Davis and Kalkstein clustering process, leading to a rainfall division. The homogeneity of the different groups obtained is tested by means of the analysis of their spatial and temporal within-group variances.With 8 Figures  相似文献   
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Summary Simultaneous measurements of xylem sap flow and water vapour flux over a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forest (Hartheim, Germany), were carried out during the Hartheim Experiment (HartX), an intensive observation campaign of the international programme REKLIP. Sap flow was measured every 30 min using both radial constant heating (Granier, 1985) and two types of Cermak sap flowmeters installed on 24 trees selected to cover a wide range of the diameter classes of the stand (min 8 cm; max 17.5 cm). Available energy was high during the observation period (5.5 to 6.9 mm.day–1), and daily cumulated sap flow on a ground area basis varied between 2.0 and 2.7 mm day–1 depending on climate conditions. Maximum hourly values of sap flow reached 0.33 mm h–1, i.e., 230 W m–2.Comparisons of sap flow with water vapour flux as measured with two OPEC (One Propeller Eddy Correlation, University of Arizona) systems showed a time lag between the two methods, sap flow lagging about 90 min behind vapour flux. After taking into account this time lag in the sap flow data set, a good agreement was found between both methods: sap flow = 0.745* vapour flux,r 2 = 0.86. The difference between the two estimates was due to understory transpiration.Canopy conductance (g c ) was calculated from sap flow measurements using the reverse form of Penman-Monteith equation and climatic data measured 4 m above the canopy. Variations ofg c were well correlated (r 2 = 0.85) with global radiation (R) and vapour pressure deficit (vpd). The quantitative expression forg c =f (R, vpd) was very similar to that previously found with maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) in the forest of Les Landes, South Western France.With 6 Figures  相似文献   
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Summary This work presents a statistical study of the wind power potential of three stations in the Catalonia area (Spain) over the 1973–1982 period. These stations correspond to three airports (Barcelona, Palma de Mallorca and Girona), which obviously do not present a high wind power potential and are not the suitable locations for wind power utilization, but which have been chosen for the long record of data stored (10 years). The aim of this work is to provide a model of wind potential in terms of the speed and wind direction, which may be applied to other sites. The wind speed has been modelled by a Weibull distribution function and the wind direction by a normal two-dimensional function. A spectral analysis of both variables has also been carried out. The present study provides an evaluation of the local wind power in the geographic area of Catalonia.With 10 Figures  相似文献   
27.
Summary Sensible heat flux estimates from a simple, one-propeller eddy correlation system (OPEC) were compared with those from a sonic anemometer eddy correlation system (SEC). In accordance with similarity theory, the performance of the OPEC system improved with increasing height of the sensor above the surface. Flux totals from the two systems at sites with adequate fetch were in excellent agreement after frequency response corrections were applied. The propeller system appears suitable for long periods of unattended measurement. The sensible heat flux measurements can be combined with net radiation and soil heat flux measurements to estimate latent heat as a residual in the surface energy balance.With 6 Figures  相似文献   
28.
This paper provides data on variations in the contents of As, Sb, Ni, V, Pb, Cu, Cr, Au, Zn, Sc, and Al, measured in the thalli of a saxicolous lichen species,Xanthoria calcicola Ochsner s.l., collected in northeastern Sicily, near an industrial zone and along a belt crossing areas of known ores containing sulfides of heavy metals. A total of 91 lichen samples were collected on roof tiles (39) and on rocks (52). In the industrial zone, analysis of lichen thalli revealed high contents of nickel and vanadium, decreasing at increasing distances from the source of contamination. The results have also revealed the versatility ofXanthoria calcicola in geochemical prospecting for heavy metals such as Pb, Zn, As, Au, Sb, Ni, V, and Cu. The contents of these elements in the analyzed lichens highlight the same geochemical associations observed in prospecting surveys on samples of river sediments and identify similar anomalies. Interpretation of data in terms of enrichment factors (EFs) turned out to be particularly useful.  相似文献   
29.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - A number of studies have sought to relate net radiation over natural surfaces to incoming global radiation. Several deficiencies are noted in interpretation of...  相似文献   
30.
Laboratory experiments were used to study the sensitivity of both male and female Daphnia magna to a toxic cyanobacterium, Microcystis aeruginosa. Male and female D. magna were fed with M. aeruginosa and a green alga (Scenedesmus obliquus) in different mixtures that included 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% Microcystis. Growth of both males and females declined with increasing proportion of Microcystis in the diet. Males were slightly less sensitive to Microcystis than females with EC50 for growth inhibition at 72% and 63% Microcystis in the diet, respectively. On monospecific Microcystis diet, mortality rates for males (0.16 d–1) and females (0.17 d–1) were similar. The reproductive rate of females was the most sensitive endpoint with an EC50 of 42% Microcystis in the diet, whereas population growth rates were the least sensitive (EC50 of 74% Microcystis). Microcystis in the diet severely depressed growth and reproduction in Daphnia and poses a severe threat to its survival in which only a switch in reproductive strategy might provide Daphnia a refuge to a Microcystis environment that gradually becomes uninhabitable.  相似文献   
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