Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market     

José I. Muñoz 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):87-105

How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind, ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increased risk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns.

Policy relevance

Policy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market.  相似文献   

重庆强对流短临业务评分方法     

张勇  牟容  潘颖  史利汉 《气象科技》2013,41(3):594-596

结合重庆本地实际情况,以区/县为单位对强对流中出现的短历时强降水、阵性大风及雷电进行业务质量定量评估.短历时强降水、阵性大风基于加密站观测资料采用分级的方式来评定,对雷电的评定基于ADTD系统观测到地闪资料并判断所在区/县是否有地闪出现.介绍了重庆本地强对流短临业务评分方法及开发的评分软件.从2011年的评分结果看,该评分方法在重庆本地是比较合理的,在业务应用上是可行的.  相似文献   

A new lunar absolute control point: established by images from the landing camera on Chang'e-3     

Fen-Fei Wang  Jian-Jun Liu  Chun-Lai Li  Xin Ren  Ling-Li Mu  Wei Yan  Wen-Rui Wang  Jing-Tao Xiao  Xu Tan  Xiao-Xia Zhang  Xiao-Duan Zou  Xing-Ye Gao 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2014,(12)

The establishment of a lunar control network is one of the core tasks in selenodesy, in which defining an absolute control point on the Moon is the most important step. However, up to now, the number of absolute control points has been very sparse. These absolute control points have mainly been lunar laser ranging retroreflectors, whose geographical location can be observed by observations on Earth and also identified in high resolution lunar satellite images. The Chang'e-3(CE-3) probe successfully landed on the Moon, and its geographical location has been monitored by an observing station on Earth. Since its positional accuracy is expected to reach the meter level, the CE-3 landing site can become a new high precision absolute control point. We use a sequence of images taken from the landing camera, as well as satellite images taken by CE-1 and CE-2, to identify the location of the CE-3 lander. With its geographical location known, the CE-3 landing site can be established as a new absolute control point, which will effectively expand the current area of the lunar absolute control network by 22%, and can greatly facilitate future research in the field of lunar surveying and mapping, as well as selenodesy.  相似文献   

我国恐龙空间分异原因初探     

穆桂松  冯有利  李春生 《河南国土资源》1995,(4)

本文讨论了中国境内先后出现的恐龙动物在古地理位置、分布范围上的变化特点，提出引起中国恐龙空间分异的主要原因是占地理环境的巨大变迁，同时也与占气候、占植物的变化有密切关系。并进一步指出，中国恐龙绝灭的原因应该是突发的灾变。  相似文献   

农田生态系统中重金属的积累积循环     

穆从如  夏增祿  李森照  孟维奇  沈瑞珍  何瑞珍 《地理研究》1986,5(3):76-81

本文通过对北京东郊高碑店地区污染农田的调查研究,探讨了重金属在农田生态系统中的积累和循环,计算出重金属在区域环境中的输入输出量,说明本区仍处于重金属积累状态,为防治农田环境污染,提出了停止施用污水处理厂的晾干污泥,减少灌溉污水中的重金属含量等保护性措施。  相似文献   

The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on the CNOP and on Its Identified Sensitive Areas for Tropical Cyclone Predictions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHOU Feifan  MU Mu 《大气科学进展》2012,29(1):36-46

In this study,the impacts of horizontal resolution on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and on its identified sensitive areas were investigated for tropical cyclone predictions.Three resolutions,30 km,60 km,and 120 km,were studied for three tropical cyclones,TC Mindulle (2004),TC Meari (2004),and TC Matsa (2005).Results show that CNOP may present different structures with different resolutions,and the major parts of CNOP become increasingly localized with increased horizontal resolution.CNOP produces spiral and baroclinic structures,which partially account for its rapid amplification.The differences in CNOP structures result in different sensitive areas,but there are common areas for the CNOP-identified sensitive areas at various resolutions,and the size of the common areas is different from case to case.Generally,the forecasts benefit more from the reduction of the initial errors in the sensitive areas identified using higher resolutions than those using lower resolutions.However,the largest improvement of the forecast can be obtained at the resolution that is not the highest for some cases.In addition,the sensitive areas identified at lower resolutions are also helpful for improving the forecast with a finer resolution,but the sensitive areas identified at the same resolution as the forecast would be the most beneficial.  相似文献   

The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

CHEN Boyu  MU Mu 《大气科学进展》2012,29(1):63-78

In this study,a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs),TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008),to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts.Specifically,three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),first singular vector (FSV),and composite singular vector (CSV) methods.Additionally,random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered.Based on these four types of initial errors and areas,we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors,and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts.Overall,results from the experiments indicate the following:(1) The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas.From the perspective of statistical analysis,and by comparison,the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest.(2) The initial errors with CNOP,CSV,or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors.(3) The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts.  相似文献   

工程测量中树木调查数据的自动标注     

李海生  王铁军  杨木  张大力 《北京测绘》2012,(3):60-62,66

在工程测绘中,有大量的树木需要进行测绘和树种、胸径的标注。在传统的作业方法中工作量很繁重,而且容易出错。本文阐述了如何通过外业测绘时的准备工作,利用AutoLISP的简单编程实现快速的标注,以此减少内外业的工作量。  相似文献   

风云三号卫星微波成像仪在轨性能稳定性分析     

乔木  杨虎  何嘉恺  吕利清 《遥感学报》2012,16(6):1246-1261

利用地球冷目标观测亮温的稳定性和遥感数据统计直方图方法,是评价微波成像仪等类似微波成像辐射计在轨性能稳定性的有效方法。在此基础上,本文用2011年2月—7月风云三号02星微波成像仪在轨观测的亮温数据,对微波成像仪在轨运行的性能稳定性进行了分析。结果表明:风云三号02星微波成像仪在轨性能稳定,所有通道最低亮温参考值波动范围不超过1.8K。  相似文献   

高原东侧突发性大暴雨过程中螺旋度的诊断分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

慕建利  李泽椿  寿绍文  杜继稳 《气象科学》2009,29(2):181-186

利用MM5模式模拟输出结果,对2002年6月8-9日发生在陕西省和四川北部的一次突发性大暴雨过程进行了螺旋度诊断分析.结果表明:暴雨区附近总存在一对紧邻的大小(低层)或正负(中层)螺旋度中心,低层螺旋度正值区强度远大于中高层螺旋度正负值区,对流层中层正负中心的轴线随高度呈逆时针旋转,相应的垂直结构是一对正负相伴的螺旋度柱.当暴雨区东侧正螺旋度突然向高层伸展,西侧伴有负螺旋度发展,且两中心间等值线变密集时,暴雨开始,大小(正负)螺旋度最强及其间等值线最紧密时,暴雨达到最强盛时期,而且暴雨就发生在两螺旋度之间偏大值中心的等值线密集区.进一步分析表明:螺旋度发生发展的主要贡献者是水平速度和水平速度的垂直切变.  相似文献