The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model     

Helen Crowley  Julian J. Bommer  Rui Pinho  Juliet Bird 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(14):1653-1685

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

北方农牧交错带退耕还林还草经济政策优化调控   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

甘超华  马礼  南秋菊 《地域研究与开发》2005,24(4):66-69

退耕还林还草作为北方农牧交错带生态重建的切入点,在实际操作中也不可避免地存在一定的问题。文章对当前退耕还林还草的社会经济特征、政策安排、协调机制及制约因素进行了分析。提出:区域粮食适度自给定位、部门协调机制创新、产权制度改革、区域产业专业化分工、适度生态移民及建立生态补偿机制为进行政策优化调控的主要途径。  相似文献   

Heaving modes in the world oceans     

Rui Xin Huang 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(11-12):3563-3591

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Temporal variation of soil erosion resistance on sloping farmland during the growth stages of maize (Zea mays L.)     

Rui Ma  Zicheng Zheng  Tingxuan Li  Shuqin He  Xizhou Zhang  Yongdong Wang  Huagang Huang  Daihua Ye 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14353

Maize growth has great effects on soil properties and thus likely induces the changes in soil erosion resistance on sloping farmland. However, temporal variation of soil erosion resistance during the growth stages of maize is still unclear in the mountainous yellow soil area where maize is the dominant crop. In this study, four maize plots (MP) and four bare land plots (CK) were conducted to investigate soil erosion resistance, and multiple indicators of soil erosion resistance were measured including the total soil anti-scourability (TAS), mean weight diameter (MWD), soil erodibility K factor and soil shear strength (SH). A comprehensive soil erosion resistance index (CSERI) was employed to quantify the temporal variation of soil erosion resistance during the growth stages of maize (seedling stage, SS; jointing stage, JS; tasselling stage, TS; maturing stage, MS). The results showed that TAS, MWD, SH increased significantly with maize growth and SH decreased when at MS. But K factor decreased significantly over time. CSERI increased significantly during the growth stages of maize and the CSERI of JS, TS, MS increased on average by 74.72, 180.68 and 234.57% than that of SS. Compared to CK, CSERI of MP increased by 49.90, 66.82, 55.60 and 38.61% during the growth stages of maize. The temporal variation of soil erosion resistance was closely related to the changes in maize cover, maize roots and soil organic carbon. The findings demonstrated that it is necessary to consider the temporal variation of soil erosion resistance in the mountainous yellow soil area.  相似文献   

On the development of a coupled regional climate–vegetation model RCM–CLM–CN–DV and its validation in Tropical Africa     

Guiling Wang  Miao Yu  Jeremy S. Pal  Rui Mei  Gordon B. Bonan  Samuel Levis  Peter E. Thornton 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(1-2):515-539

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重要性权值的驾车导航POI表达规则     

方成  江南  刘锐 《测绘科学技术学报》2016,(6):654-658

在导航电子地图中,针对驾车任务的POI自适应表达是提高导航电子地图信息传输效率的关键。针对这一问题,提出了基于重要性权值的驾车导航POI表达规则。首先,分析了POI重要性权值的影响因素;其次,从影响因素出发,研究了基于权值的POI规则表达的各规则项;最后,设计了POI自适应表达规则库,并在嵌入了数据处理规则库的绘图软件上进行了技术实现。试验结果表明,利用基于权值的POI表达规则进行地图表达,可以提高地图内容的层次性与清晰性,优化驾车导航服务。  相似文献   

新元古代扬子—华夏陆块拼合带：来自华南重磁异常的启示   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郭良辉  高锐  张季生  熊小松 《地质科学》2016,(3):682-693

扬子和华夏两大陆块是构成华南大陆的最基本单元, 但它们的拼合带位置（尤其是西延位置）是人们长期争论的焦点。本文以国家专项“深部探测技术与实验研究”探测得到的深反射地震剖面以及华南大陆的地质资料为约束, 对重、 磁异常作地壳构造融合解译, 追踪扬子—华夏陆块拼合带。由于华南大陆广泛发育具有剩磁多期、 多类的火山—侵入岩, 本文将磁异常换算为受剩磁影响小的解析信号作构造解译, 减小剩磁造成的地质解释偏差。研究认为, 扬子与华夏两陆块的拼合带东界为鹰潭—萍乡—衡阳—贺州—北海一线, 而西界为宜昌—张家界—铜仁—都匀—百色一线, 鹰潭以东和以北的拼合带位置因为受大规模岩浆岩的干扰而不清。  相似文献   

利用双线偏振雷达分析人工防雹作业效果     

陈羿辰  张龙斌  金永利  马建立  嵇磊  秦睿 《气象科技》2016,44(3):479-488

以北京市平谷区2011年6月11日防雹作业为例,利用双线偏振雷达资料,选取与作业区条件十分接近的云块为对比区,根据回波移动方向和速度,跟踪分析在不同高度上防雹作业前后云体宏观结构特征和粒子相态等微物理变化过程。作业后云体所呈现特征为:1作业区的云顶高度、强回波中心高度迅速下降,对比区变化不明显;2作业区水平反射率Zh减小,差分反射率Zdr、零相关系数ρhv增大,单位差分传播相移Kdp小范围内波动,对比区Zh、Zdr、Kdp变化不明显;ρhv增大;3作业区对流减弱,高层较大冰雹粒子、大雨滴下沉明显,最终以霰粒子为主;而对比区域则对流仍然旺盛,冰雹粒子有增多趋势。以上特征表明防雹作业可有效抑制冰雹胚胎成长为冰雹的过程,通过偏振雷达观测参量可对防雹作业效果进行较好的验证。  相似文献   

M-Quadtree索引:一种基于改进四叉树编码方法的云存储环境下空间索引方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

付仲良  胡玉龙  翁宝凤  彭瑞 《测绘学报》2016,45(11):1342-1351

为了解决基于"键-值"模型的云存储环境仅支持简单的关键字查询,不支持多维空间查询的问题,提出了一种新的分布式空间索引方法——M-Quadtree索引。在索引构建过程中,设计了一种基于改进四叉树的空间数据划分方法,该方法规定了叶节点区域的最小数据量,通过四叉树叶节点的再合并,解决了划分后各子区域间存储量不平衡的问题,并且满足了MapReduce并行化要求。给出了MapReduce框架下M-Quadtree索引的快速构建、查询与更新算法,并在搭建的Hadoop平台进行了关键参数对索引效率的影响以及不同规模数据下索引的创建、查询和更新试验。与现有分布式空间索引的对比试验及分析结果表明,M-Quadtree索引在数据存储量负载均衡、算法并行化和空间查询效率等方面表现得更好。  相似文献   

植被生物量高光谱遥感监测研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

姚阔  郭旭东  南颖  李坤  江淑芳  孙婷婷 《测绘科学》2016,(8):48-53

植被生物量的评估对于研究全球碳循环具有重大意义,而高光谱遥感技术为精确反演地表属性提供了重要的数据支持。针对如何更好地应用高光谱遥感技术进行植被生物量精确反演的问题,该文详细阐述了国内外应用高光谱技术估测植被生物量的研究进展。对反演植被生物量所涉及的数据源、反演模型的构建方法及其模型特点、反演模型应用对象等内容进行了综合评述,并通过分析认为,高光谱遥感技术较传统的多光谱遥感技术在生物量反演精度上有了显著的提高。同时,对建模方法、多源遥感数据融合以及模型通用性等方面的研究进行了展望,以达到在大尺度范围内对植被生物量进行准确反演的目的。  相似文献