Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models     

Esther Salazar  Dorit Hammerling  Xia Wang  Bruno Sansó  Andrew O. Finley  Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.  相似文献   

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes     

Sally Rangecroft  Andrew J. Suggitt  Karen Anderson  Stephan Harrison 《Climatic change》2016,137(1-2):231-243

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Bridging the climate information gap: a framework for engaging knowledge brokers and decision makers in state climate assessments     

Gillian L. Galford  Julie Nash  Alan K. Betts  Sam Carlson  Sarah Ford  Ann Hoogenboom  Deborah Markowitz  Andrew Nash  Elizabeth Palchak  Sarah Pears  Kristen L. Underwood 《Climatic change》2016,138(3-4):383-395

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Temperature and human thermal comfort effects of street trees across three contrasting street canyon environments     

Andrew M. Coutts  Emma C. White  Nigel J. Tapper  Jason Beringer  Stephen J. Livesley 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,124(1-2):55-68

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Reactivation and strain localisation in Bhavani shear zone,South India     

V. Prasannakumar  Andrew McCaig 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2016,88(4):421-432

Shear markers and shear sense indicators from the Bhavani shear zone, a member of the shear system separating the northern Archaean and southern Pan African granulite terranes of the South Indian shield, with differently exhumed crustal blocks, suggest multiphase reactivation. This is revealed by textural and geochemical characteristics of mylonites which indicate an event of prograde epidote-amphibolite facies metamorphism of the previously retrograded protolith of shear zone rocks. The amphibole varies progressively from an initial magnesio-hornblende to ferrotschermakitic hornblende with increasing Al and K while the plagioclase maintains oligoclase composition (An21-25). P-T estimates suggest metamorphic conditions of 634°C - 720°C at 3.6±0.5 to 5.8±0.5 kbar. Strain partitioning during the reactivation of the shear zone prior to the Pan African event, is responsible for the gradation in the intensity of mylonitic fabric as well as some of the opposing shear sense indicators.  相似文献   

A skeleton model for the MJO with refined vertical structure     

Sulian Thual  Andrew J. Majda 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(9-10):2773-2786

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Remote tropical and sub-tropical responses to Amazon deforestation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Andrew M. Badger  Paul A. Dirmeyer 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(9-10):3057-3066

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Searching for Added Value in Simulating Climate Extremes with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model over Western Canada     

Charles L. Curry  Bárbara Tencer  Kirien Whan  Andrew J. Weaver  Michel Giguère  Edward Wiebe 《大气与海洋》2016,54(4):364-384

We evaluate the capacity of a regional climate model to represent observed extreme temperature and precipitation events and also examine the impact of increased resolution, in an effort to identify added value in this respect. Two climate simulations of western Canada (WCan) were conducted with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (version 4) at 15 (CRCM15) and 45?km (CRCM45) horizontal resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40) for the period 1973–1995. The simulations were evaluated using the spline-interpolated dataset ANUSPLIN, a daily observational gridded surface temperature and precipitation product with a nominal resolution of approximately 10?km. We examine a range of climate extremes, comprising the 10th and 90th percentiles of daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures, the 90th percentile of daily precipitation (PR90), and the 27 core Climate Daily Extremes (CLIMDEX) indices.

Both simulations exhibit cold biases compared with observations over WCan, with the bias exacerbated at higher resolution, suggesting little added value for temperature overall. There are instances, however, of regional improvement in the spatial pattern of temperature extremes at the higher resolution of CRCM15 (e.g., the CLIMDEX index for the annual number of days when TX?>?25°C). The high-resolution simulations also reveal similarly localized features in precipitation (e.g., rain shadows) that are not resolved at the 45?km resolution. With regard to precipitation extremes, although both simulations generally display wet biases, CRCM15 features a reduced bias in PR90 in all seasons except winter. This improvement occurs despite the fact that spatial and interannual variability of PR90 in CRCM15 is significantly overestimated relative to both CRCM45 and ANUSPLIN. We posit that these characteristics are the result of demonstrable differences between corresponding topographical datasets used in the gridded observations and CRCM, the resulting errors propagated to physical variables tied to elevation and the beneficial effect of subsequent spatial averaging. Because topographical input is often discordant between simulations and gridded observations, it is argued that a limited form of spatial averaging may contribute added value beyond that which has already been noted in previous studies with respect to small-scale climate variability.  相似文献   

Use of cartographic images by expert and novice field geologists in planning fieldwork routes     

Kathleen M. Baker  Andrew C. Johnson  Caitlin N. Callahan  Heather L. Petcovic 《制图学和地理信息科学》2016,43(2):176-187

Topographic maps and aerial photographs are particularly useful when geoscientists are faced with fieldwork tasks such as selecting paths for observation, establishing sampling schemes, or defining field regions. These types of images are crucial in bedrock geologic mapping, a cognitively complex field-based problem-solving task. Geologic mapping requires the geologist to correctly identify rock types and three-dimensional bedrock structures from often partial or poor-quality outcrop data while navigating through unfamiliar terrain. This paper compares the walked routes of novice to expert geologists working in the field (n = 66) with the results of a route planning and navigation survey of a similar population of geologists (n = 77). Results show clearly that those geologists with previous mapping experience make quick and decisive determinations about field areas from available imagery and maps, regardless of whether they are or not physically present in the field area. Recognition of geologic features enabled experts to form and verbalize a specific plan for travel through a landscape based on those features. Novices were less likely to develop specific travel route plans and were less likely to identify critical landscape cues from aerial photographs.  相似文献   

Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009     

Andrew J. Shatz  Florencia Sangermano  Jennifer Miller  Arthur Elmes 《国际地球制图》2016,31(8):813-831

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.  相似文献