A hidden Markov model for earthquake prediction     

Cheuk?Fung?YipEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Wai?Leong?Ng  Chun?Yip?Yau 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(5):1415-1434

Earthquake occurrence is well-known to be associated with structural changes in underground dynamics, such as stress level and strength of electromagnetic signals. While the causation between earthquake occurrence and underground dynamics remains elusive, the modeling of changes in underground dynamics can provide insights on earthquake occurrence. However, underground dynamics are usually difficult to measure accurately or even unobservable. In order to model and examine the effect of the changes in unobservable underground dynamics on earthquake occurrence, we propose a novel model for earthquake prediction by introducing a latent Markov process to describe the underground dynamics. In particular, the model is capable of predicting the change-in-state of the hidden Markov chain, and thus can predict the time and magnitude of future earthquake occurrences simultaneously. Simulation studies and applications on a real earthquake dataset indicate that the proposed model successfully predicts future earthquake occurrences. Theoretical results, including the stationarity and ergodicity of the proposed model, as well as consistency and asymptotic normality of model parameter estimation, are provided.  相似文献   

华南花岗岩残积土红土化程度的地带性与香港该类土不发育的原因   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

曲记新  吴宏伟 《工程地质学报》2000,8(1):16-20

从华南花岗岩残积土红土化程度的地域变化规律出发 ,通过香港与华南沿海各地花岗岩残积土的化学成分及红土化指标对比 ,作者发现香港花岗岩残积土无论厚度、类型 ,还是红土化程度都具有与所处气候环境不协调的特点。文章进一步讨论了香港花岗岩残积土不发育的原因和对工程性质的影响.  相似文献   

Pesticides in Sediments From Queensland Irrigation Channels and Drains     

Jochen F. Müller  Sabine Duquesne  Jack Ng  Glen R. Shaw  K Krrishnamohan  K Manonmanii  Mary Hodge  Geoff K. Eaglesham 《Marine pollution bulletin》2000,41(7-12):294-301

Pesticide concentration in sediment from irrigation areas can provide information required to assess exposure and fate of these chemicals in freshwater ecosystems and their likely impacts to the marine environment. In this study, 103 sediment samples collected from irrigation channels and drains in 11 agricultural areas of Queensland were analysed for a series of past and presently used pesticides including various organochlorines, synthetic pyrethroids, benzoyl ureas, triazines and organophosphates. The most often detected compounds were endosulphans (, β and/or endosulphan sulphate) which were detectable in 78 of the 103 samples and levels ranged from below the limit of quantification (0.1 ng g⁻¹ dw) up to 840 ng g⁻¹ dw. DDT and its metabolites were the second most often detected pesticide investigated (74 of the 103 samples) with concentrations up to 240 ng g⁻¹ dw of ∑DDTs. Mean ∑endosulphan and ∑DDT concentrations were 1–2 orders of magnitude higher in sediments from the irrigation areas which are dominated by cotton cultivation compared to those which are dominated by sugarcane cultivation. In contrast to these insecticides, the herbicides diuron, atrazine and ametryn were the compounds which were most often detected in sediments from irrigation drains in sugarcane areas with maximum concentrations in areas of 120, 70 and 130 ng g⁻¹ dw, respectively. In particular during flood events, when light is limiting, transport of these photosynthesis inhibiting herbicides from the sugarcane cultivation areas to the marine environment may result in additional stress of marine plants.  相似文献   

Harpiosquilla harpax (Crustacea, Stomatopoda) as a biomonitor of trace metal contamination in benthic sediments in Hong Kong waters     

Ng JS  Lui KK  Lai CH  Leung KM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(9):1523-1529

  相似文献   

Monitoring ground deformation in Beijing, China with persistent scatterer SAR interferometry   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Alex Hay-Man Ng  Linlin Ge  Xiaojing Li  Kui Zhang 《Journal of Geodesy》2012,86(6):375-392

This paper investigated the long term ground deformation in Beijing, China, using persistent/permanent scatterer interferometry (PSI) techniques. GEOS-PSI (Geodesy and Earth Observing Systems-PSI), an in-house software developed at UNSW for PSI, has been applied to 41 ENVISAT ASAR images acquired over the metropolitan area of Beijing City between June 2003 and March 2009 and 24 ALOS PALSAR images (two Paths: 10 acquisitions from January 2007 to October 2008 and 14 acquisitions from February 2007 to September 2009). The results generated using these datasets from the two satellites were cross-validated. Correlations between the results of ENVISAT ASAR and ALOS PALSAR agreed very well. The horizontal and vertical displacement rate maps over Beijing City were obtained from the results generated with data acquired by both satellites over the period from 1st February 2007 to 1st November 2008. The results indicate that the displacements in Beijing City were mainly in the vertical direction. The majority of the easting displacement rates were in the range of ?10 mm/year to 10?mm/year, while the vertical rates were in the range of ?115 mm/year to 6?mm/year. The possible cause for the ground deformation is groundwater extraction based on our research as well as earlier published studies.  相似文献   

Consumption tradeoff vs. catastrophes avoidance: implications of some recent results in happiness studies on the economics of climate change     

Yew-Kwang Ng 《Climatic change》2011,105(1-2):109-127

Recent discussion of climate change focuses on the trade-off between present and future consumption and hence correctly emphasizes the discount rate. Stern (2007) favours immediate and strong actions of environmental protection, but this has been questioned as the discount rate used is much lower than the market or commonly used rates. Focussed only on consumption trade-off, the use of these higher discount rates completely reverses the need for strong actions. However, an even more important problem has been largely neglected. This is the avoidance of catastrophes that may threaten the extinction of the human species. But ??we lack a usable economic framework for dealing with these kinds of ... extreme disasters?? (Weitzman, J Econ Lit 45(3):703?C724, 2007, p. 723). To analyse this, the comparison of marginal utility with total utility is needed. As happiness studies suggest a low ratio of marginal to total utility and as scientific and technological advances (especially in brain stimulation and genetic engineering) may dramatically increase future welfare, immediate and actions stronger than proposed by Stern may be justified despite high discount rates on future consumption, as discount rates on future utility/welfare should be much lower.  相似文献   

香港国家地质公园粮船湾组火山岩岩石学研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

邢光福吴振扬陶奎元伍世良  陈荣 姜杨 李龙明  余明刚 《中国地质》2011,38(4):1079-1093

在香港国家地质公园西贡火山岩园区,核心地质景观是白垩纪粮船湾组(Kkh)火山岩优美的六方形石柱(柱状节理),它们的岩石类型长期存在熔岩和火山碎屑岩之争。笔者等经野外调查和薄片岩石学研究,确认粮船湾组火山岩实属一种特殊的熔岩——流纹质碎斑熔岩,以普遍的柱状节理、斑晶具有碎斑结构和珠边结构、基质发育霏细结构和流动构造为特征;它们不仅代表了香港地区中生代最晚期火山喷发的产物,而且构成了西贡破火山机构的中央侵出相岩穹。推断粮船湾组火山岩石柱是地球上已知面积最大的流纹质碎斑熔岩石柱群(～150 km2),目前所见的火山岩石柱仅是长期剥蚀后的残余部分。  相似文献   

A modified analytical solution of soil stress distribution for XCC pile foundations     

Yaru Lv  Hanlong Liu  Charles W. W. Ng  Anthony Gunawan  Xuanming Ding 《Acta Geotechnica》2014,9(3):529-546

X-section cast-in-place concrete pile (XCC pile) is a new type of pile foundation, which has an X-shaped cross section. Compared to the traditional circular pile of the same cross-sectional area, the bearing capacity of an XCC pile is higher due to increased cross-sectional perimeter. Since Geddes solution is based on St. Venant’s principle, leading to the results independent of the cross-sectional geometry and size, large differences are induced when estimating the soil stress distribution for XCC pile foundations. This paper derives a modified analytical solution, which is dependent on the cross-sectional geometry of XCC pile, from Geddes solution. Validation of this modified solution was conducted through three-dimensional numerical analysis and proven more suitable for XCC pile foundations. Parametric study on three geometrical parameters is conducted using this modified solution. The results indicate that the stress in founding soil due to skin friction decreases with increasing pile radius and central angle of concave, but increases with increasing length of flat side. The stress due to end-bearing decreases with increasing pile radius and length of flat side, but increases with increasing central angle of concave. From the parametric studies, the recommended dimensions of XCC pile radius, length of flat side, and central angle of concave are recommended ranges from 200 to 600 mm, 30 to 60 mm, and 90° to 150°, respectively.  相似文献   

Rainfall-induced landslides in Hulu Kelang area, Malaysia   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Min Lee Lee  Kim Yeong Ng  Yuk Feng Huang  Wei Chao Li 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):353-375

Hulu Kelang is known as one of the most landslide-prone areas in Malaysia. The area has been constantly hit by landslide hazards since 1990s. This paper provides an insight into the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslide in the Hulu Kelang area. Rainfall patterns prior to the occurrences of five selected case studies were first analyzed. The results showed that daily rainfall information is insufficient for predicting landslides in the area. Rainfalls of longer durations, i.e., 3–30 days prior to the landslides should be incorporated into the prediction model. Numerical simulations on a selected case study demonstrated that both matric suction and factor of safety decreased steadily over time until they reached the lowest values on the day of landslide occurrence. Redistribution of infiltrated rainwater in the soil mass could be a reason for the slow response of failure mechanism to rainfall. Based on 21 rainfall-induced landslides that had occurred in the area, three rainfall thresholds were developed as attempts to predict the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslide. The rainfall intensity–duration threshold developed based on the local rainfall conditions provided a reasonably good prediction to the landslide occurrence. The cumulative 3- versus 30-day antecedent precipitation index threshold chart was capable of giving the most reliable prediction with the limiting threshold line for major landslide yielded a reliability of 97.6 %.  相似文献   

Progression of backward erosion piping with sudden and gradual hydraulic loads     

Zheng  Gang  Tong  Jingbo  Zhang  Tianqi  Ng  Charles W. W. 《Acta Geotechnica》2022,17(5):2029-2035

Acta Geotechnica - With the utilization of underground space, backward erosion piping (BEP) has been observed in many underground structures. Different from BEP in embankments or river dikes, the...  相似文献