Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector     

Marie Ekström  Natasha Kuruppu  Robert L. Wilby  Hayley J. Fowler  Francis H.S. Chiew  Suraje Dessai  William J. Young 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):115-129

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.  相似文献   

The age,extent and geomorphological significance of the Sassafras basalt,south‐eastern New South Wales     

R. W. Young  Ian McDougall 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(4):323-331

Basalt at Sassafras was erupted in the Middle Eocene. The K‐Ar ages average 45.3 ± 4.9 Ma on whole rock and 48.4 ± 1.9 Ma on plagioclase. The basalt is not limited to a plateau capping, but extends 150 m down into adjacent valleys. Comparison with nearby Eocene basalts shows that there was in excess of 250 m of local relief in the central Shoalhaven valley by the Early Tertiary. The basalts were extruded at high elevation, and denudation of the coastal margin of the upland was already well advanced. Post‐basaltic denudation has been very slow, and the Early Tertiary landscape is well preserved.  相似文献   

Constraining Holocene 10Be production rates in Greenland     

Jason P. Briner  Nicolás E. Young  Brent M. Goehring  Joerg M. Schaefer 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(1):2-6

The absence of a production rate calibration experiment on Greenland has limited the ability to link ¹⁰Be exposure dating chronologies of ice‐margin change to independent records of rapid climate change. We use radiocarbon age control on Holocene glacial features near Jakobshavn Isbræ, western Greenland, to investigate ¹⁰Be production rates. The radiocarbon chronology is inconsistent with the ¹⁰Be age calculations based on the current globally averaged ¹⁰Be production rate calibration data set, but is consistent with the ¹⁰Be production rate calibration data set from north‐eastern North America, which includes a calibration site nearby on north‐eastern Baffin Island. Based on the best‐dated feature available from the Jakobshavn Isbræ forefield, we derive a ¹⁰Be production rate value of 3.98 ± 0.24 atoms g a^?1, using the ‘St’ scaling scheme, which overlaps with recently published reference ¹⁰Be production rates. We suggest that these ¹⁰Be production rate data, or the very similar data from north‐eastern North America, are used on Greenland. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

What makes a ‘REDD’ country?     

J. Phelps  M.C. Guerrero  D.A. Dalabajan  B. Young  E.L. Webb 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(2):322-332

Despite remaining uncertainties, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD) projects are being planned and implemented across the tropics, primarily targeting countries with high forest cover and high deforestation rates. However, there is growing recognition that REDD planning requires a broadened approach; a future REDD mechanism should incentivise emissions reduction in all developing forested countries, and should address critical non-carbon dimensions of REDD implementation—quality of forest governance, conservation priorities, local rights and tenure frameworks, and sub-national project potential. When considering this broader suite of factors, different REDD priorities can emerge, including in countries with low forest cover that would be overlooked by conventional site selection criteria. Using the Philippines as a case study, the paper highlights the importance of an enabling environment to REDD implementation, and presents a more comprehensive and inclusive approach for thinking about what comprises a “REDD country.”  相似文献   

Endolithic biodegradation of cool-water skeletal carbonates on Scott shelf, northwestern Vancouver Island, Canada     

Harvey R. Young  Campbell S. Nelson 《Sedimentary Geology》1988,60(1-4):251-267

Biodegradation of shell material is widespread in the cool-water skeletal carbonate deposits on Scott shelf, northwestern Vancouver Island, and is especially evident in the large aragonitic bivalves, Glycymeris and Humilaria, major primary sediment contributors. Ten types of endolithic microborings have been identified in the shells, including representatives of green algae (e.g., Ostreobium quekettii), blue-green algae (e.g., Plectonema terebrans, ?Scytonema sp.), fungi, bacteria and clionid sponges, as well as macroborings of phoronids, polychaetes and naticid gatropods. Microcrystalline carbonate is not precipitated in vacated bores. Boring physically weakens the shells, rendering them more prone to mechanical abrasion during sediment transport and bioturbation, and to biological abrasion by grazing benthos. Tumbling experiments demonstrate that the rate of carbonate mud production is much greater for bored as compared to fresh bivalve shells, and that mud production rates decrease with tumbling time because most endolithic microborings are confined to the periphery of grains. Boring also increases significantly the porosity and surface area of skeletal grains, and destroys their organic matrix, making them susceptible to maceration and dissolution on cool-water shelves. Fostered by the generally low rates of carbonate production and accumulation, many aragonitic bivalve shells on Scott shelf have become thoroughly degraded through a combination of endolithic microboring, maceration and dissolution within about 1000 years in ambient sea water. In geologic terms, such selective taphonomic loss of skeletal material may be considerable in ancient temperate-shelf limestones and should be evaluated when interpreting their paleoecology and paleoenvironments.  相似文献   

Initialization and data assimilation experiments with a primitive equation model     

Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli  Roberta E. Young  Dale B. Haidvogel 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》1989,13(3-4)

The process of combining models of the ocean circulation with large data sets is known in meteorology as model initialization and data assimilation. This process is new to oceanographers, who only now are on the verge of having available world-wide synoptic maps of dynamic variables. In this paper we carry out a series of idealized initialization/assimilation experiments with a primitive equation (PE) model, which constitute a first step in developing a realistic process model and data assimilation techniques for the Gulf Stream system. The PE model is used in a spin-down mode and initialized with an analytic jet profile with geostrophically balanced fields.Two major questions are addressed in the present study. The first concerns the initialization process of a PE model during which internal/inertial gravity wave noise is produced. We ask: are the initialization shocks equally crucial for ocean models as they have been for their atmospheric counterparts? The results of an extensive series of balanced versus unbalanced initializations indicate that, for a PE model with a rigid lid, a brutally unbalanced initialization is required to produce strong internal gravity wave shocks. A geostrophically balanced initialization is sufficient to ensure smooth jet evolutions, with no apparent gravity waves, over long time durations in the spin-down mode. No sophisticated initialization procedures seem, therefore, to be required.The second question addressed is: which component of the flow is the most important in data assimilation to drive the model response towards a baseline reference ocean? We specifically compare the knowledge of the depth-integrated flow only, corresponding to measurements of the total transport, with the knowledge of the density field only, or equivalently the velocity shear. The knowledge of the interior density field is much more effective in decreasing the root-mean-square (r.m.s.) errors relative to the reference ocean. If the baroclinic structure is known, coarse horizontal resolutions of data insertion can be reached before significantly worsening the model estimates. If only the depth-averaged flow is known, a decrease in the horizontal resolution of data assimilation has an immediate effect: the r.m.s. errors sharply increase and the assimilation run diverges from the reference ocean. In the assimilation of the barotropic flow alone, even with dense resolution, the errors in the deep layers always show an increasing trend. The relative effectiveness of baroclinic versus barotropic data insertion can be rationalized in the context of geostrophic adjustment theory.  相似文献   

Laboratory and field investigations of rockburst phenomena using concurrent geotomographic imaging and acoustic emission/microseismic techniques     

R. P. Young  D. A. Hutchins  S. Talebi  T. Chow  S. Falls  L. Farrell  D. Jansen  J. McGaughey  J. Towers  T. Urbancic 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,129(3-4):647-659

The progress made on three phases of a research project, started in 1986 to investigate mining induced seismicity/rockburst phenomena using concurrent geotomographic imaging and microseismic monitoring techniques, is described. Phase I is the geotomographic software development and laboratory calibration trials. Phase II is the enhancement of traditional microseismic monitoring instrumentation with a waveform acquisition system, so that source mechanism studies can be carried out on mining induced seismic events. Phase III is the field trials of the hybrid technique which will be used to monitor changing rock mass physical properties, in response to mining. Preliminary results from all three phases are given, together with an outline of current and future research planned.Presented at the Fred Leighton Memorial Workshop on Mining Induced Seismicity, Montreal 1987.  相似文献   

The Late Devensian (<22,000 BP) Irish Sea Basin: The sedimentary record of a collapsed ice sheet margin     

Nicholas Eyles  A. Marshall McCabe 《Quaternary Science Reviews》1989,8(4)

The Late Devensian (<20 ka BP) glacial geology of the Irish Sea Basin (4000 km²) is an event stratigraphy recording the entry of marine waters into a glacio-isostatically-depressed basin, and the rapid retreat of the Irish Sea Glacier as a tidewater ice margin. Marine limits occur up to 140 m O.D. Across much of the central basin, the ice margin was uncoupled from its bed exposing a subglacially-scoured topography to glaciomarine processes. The Irish Sea Glacier was a major drainage conduit of the last British Ice Sheet; calving of the marine ice margin resulted in fast flow (surging) of ice streams recorded by drumlin fields around the northern basin margin and tunnel valleys. Rapid evacuation of the basin may have stranded large areas of dead ice in peripheral zones (e.g. Cheshire/Shropshire Lowlands) and initiated the collapse of the ice sheet.Thick wedges of ice-contact glaciomarine sediments were deposited during ice retreat as morainal bank complexes by successive tidewater ice margins stabilized at pinning points around the Irish Sea coast. Where morainal banks occur on the seaward side of drumlin swarms there is a clear sequential relationship between rapid ice loss from calving ice margins, the development of fast flowing ice streams, drumlinization and the pumping of subglacial sediment to tidewater. Raised delta complexes are locally associated with marine limits along the high relief coastal margins of Wales, east central Ireland, and the Lake District. Associated valley infill complexes record downslope resedimentation of heterogenous sediments into the marine environment during ice retreat. Co-eval offshore deposits are represented by well-stratified glaciomarine complexes that infill a subglacially-scoured topography that shows networks of tunnel valleys. Glaciomarine mud drapes occur well to the south of the maximum limit of grounded ice in the basin (e.g. North Devon, Scilly Islands, Southern Ireland). The age of these distal sediments, previously mapped as pre-Devensian tills, is constrained by amino acid ratios.Basin rebound following deglaciation was rapid, with over 100 m recovery in 3 ka, and was followed by a low marine still stand. Peat, accumulating in offshore areas now as much as 55 m below sea level has been drowned by the postglacial eustatic rise in sea level.The glacio-sedimentary model identified in this paper, involving rapid ice retreat and related sedimentation triggered by rising relative sea level, suggests that isotatic downwarping is an important mechanism for deglaciating continental shelves.  相似文献   

Infrared spectroscopic investigation of hydroxyl in β-(Mg,Fe)2SiO4 and coexisting olivine: Implications for mantle evolution and dynamics     

Thomas E. Young  Harry W. Green II  Anne M. Hofmeister  David Walker 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1993,19(6):409-422

Wadsleyite (β-(Mg,Fe)₂SiO₄) is a major constituent of the Earth's transition zone and is known to accommodate OH. The portion of the transition zone between 400–550 km could be an important source or sink for hydroxyl in plumes and slabs intersecting this region. Micro-infrared spectroscopy has been carried out on the β-phase and coexisting metastable olivine synthesized in a multianvil apparatus at 14 GPa and 1550–1650 K under hydrous conditions. Single-crystal and polycrystal specimens of both phases were analyzed in the 1800–8500 cm^?1 frequency region to determine the speciation, abundances, and partitioning behavior of the hydrous components in coexisting β-phase and olivine. β-phase spectra consistently show three distinct OH bands at 3329, 3580, and 3615 cm^?1. OH concentrations range from 10000–65000 H/10⁶ Si. A strong positive correlation of grain size and extent of transformation with OH concentration in the β-phase indicates that grain-growth and transformation rates are enhanced in a hydrous environment. Olivine spectra are variable, but consistently show a prominent broad-band absorbance representing molecular H₂O, consistent with the infrared signature of the starting material. OH concentrations in olivine range from <300–1400 H/10⁶ Si. The highest OH concentrations measured for olivine and the β-phase may represent solubility limits, in which case the OH solubility ratio between these two phases is approximately 1∶40. Where both phases coexist and are undersaturated with OH, the partitioning ratio of OH between them is about 1∶100. The large solubility contrast between olivine and the β-phase suggests a mechanism for hydrating the transition zone via olivine carried down in subducting slabs. Plumes impinging on an OH-rich upper transition region could cause H₂ or H₂O to be released upon transformation of the β-phase to olivine, resulting in initiation of secondary upwellings. If dissolution of OH weakens the β-phase, and if OH is present in the mantle, the region between 400–550 km could be a zone of low viscosity.  相似文献   

Pressure and volume changes in magmatic systems due to the vertical displacement of compressible materials     

Nicholas Bagdassarov 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1994,63(1-2)

The problem of a pressure or volume increase due to the vertical redistribution of two substances with differing compressibilities is considered and compared with a previous treatment. Modified expressions for the pressure and volume changes are obtained using the general equation of state with constant compressibility. The effects of gas and melt compressibilities, and also of the solubility of gas in floating bubbles, on pressure and volume changes in magmatic systems are discussed. Very different conclusions from those in the previous treatment are found.  相似文献