A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: Sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ralph Ledbetter  Christel Prudhomme  Nigel Arnell 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):803-823

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate change projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment’s role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.  相似文献   

Subsurface lithofacies analysis of the Fluvial Early Permian Warchha Sandstone, Potwar Basin, Pakistan     

Shahid Ghazi  Nigel P. Mountney 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2010,76(5):505-517

The Early Permian Warchha Sandstone is well preserved in subsurface in the Potwar Basin and the Punjab Plain of Pakistan. However, this succession is only exposed in the Salt Range, and within this region, only a modest number of the many outcrops are of sufficient quality to enable the preparation of lateral and vertical log profiles. From the subsurface, data from five wells drilled in the Salt Range and Potwar Basin have been analysed. Although they are of restricted coverage, these subsurface data — which take the form of gamma ray logs and well cuttings — provide a valuable addition to the outcrop dataset of the Warchha Sandstone as they provide useful information about vertical textural changes, type and thickness of bedding and the nature of sandbody contacts with underlying strata. Overall, the Warchha Sandstone succession is composed of repeated fining-upwards cycles indicative of a meandering fluvial succession. Sub-components of each cycle are themselves classified into six subsurface sedimentary facies. Through comparison with outcropping parts of the succession, the origin and significance of these subsurface facies can be related to specific architectural elements within the meandering fluvial system responsible for generating the Warchha Sandstone succession.  相似文献   

Textural variation in the pyrite-rich ore deposits of the Røros district, Trondheim Region, Norway: implications for pyrite deformation mechanisms     

Craig D. Barrie  Nigel J. Cook  Alan P. Boyle 《Mineralium Deposita》2010,45(1):51-68

The Røros district is a pyrite-rich polymetallic sulfide orefield in the southeastern part of the Trondheim region, Central Norwegian Caledonides. All of the ore deposits at Røros are hosted within a Cambrian to Silurian succession that was deformed and metamorphosed at lower greenschist to lower amphibolite facies conditions during the Caledonian orogeny. Samples from five individual deposits across the orefield have been analyzed using a combination of reflected light petrographic observation, orientation contrast imaging, and electron backscatter diffraction. Results indicate that, whereas samples from each ore deposit have a variety of different textures, all of them preserve plastic deformation in pyrite grains that occurred at peak metamorphic conditions characterized by the development of internal lattice misorientation within pyrite grains and low-angle (～2°) dislocation walls. These observations indicate that the principal deformation mechanisms at peak metamorphic conditions were dislocation glide and creep. The preservation of brittle fracturing represents later overprinting events.  相似文献   

Editorial     

Nigel John Cook  Editor-in-Chief  Ore Geology Reviews 《Ore Geology Reviews》2010,38(4):1

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How much physical complexity is needed to model flood inundation?     

Jeffrey Neal  Ignacio Villanueva  Nigel Wright  Thomas Willis  Timothy Fewtrell  Paul Bates 《水文研究》2012,26(15):2264-2282

Two‐dimensional flood inundation models are widely used tools for flood hazard mapping and an essential component of statutory flood risk management guidelines in many countries. Yet, we still do not know how much physical complexity a flood inundation model needs for a given problem. Here, three two‐dimensional explicit hydraulic models, which can be broadly defined as simulating diffusive, inertial or shallow water waves, have been benchmarked using test cases from a recent Environment Agency for England and Wales study, where results from industry models are also available. To ensure consistency, the three models were written in the same code and share subroutines for all but the momentum (flow) and time‐stepping calculations. The diffusive type model required much longer simulation times than the other models, whilst the inertia model was the quickest. For flows that vary gradually in time, differences in simulated velocities and depths due to physical complexity were within 10% of the simulations from a range of industry models. Therefore, for flows that vary gradually in time, it appears unnecessary to solve the full two‐dimensional shallow water equations. As expected, however, the simpler models were unable to simulate supercritical flows accurately. Finally, implications of the results for future model benchmarking studies are discussed in light of a number of subtle factors that were found to cause significant differences in simulations relative to the choice of model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Smoothing of digital elevation models and the alteration of overland flow path length distributions     

Nigel Van Nieuwenhuizen  John B. Lindsay  Ben DeVries 《水文研究》2021,35(7):e14271

DEM smoothing is a common pre-processing technique used to remove undesirable roughness from a DEM. However, it is hypothesized that smoothing straightens and reduces the length of overland flow paths, which is an important factor controlling modelled time-to-peak flow. Currently, there is a lack of research comparing how different smoothing techniques alter the distribution of overland flow path length. Four low-pass filtering techniques were applied to three fine-resolution LiDAR DEMs of varying relief: the mean filter, the median filter, the Gaussian filter, and the feature-preserving DEM smoothing (FPDEMS) filter, each with different degrees of smoothing. Downslope-distance-to-stream distributions were then derived using D8 and D∞ flow directions and statistically compared to distributions derived from the unsmoothed DEM for each study site. The results indicate that the alteration of flow path length distributions as a result of smoothing is complex. Mean flow path lengths may decrease or increase in response to smoothing, depending on landscape relief and the derivation of flow directions, and generalized flow paths may become longer. The largest increase in mean flow path lengths was 19.2 m using the 21 × 21 median filter and D8 flow directions in the high-relief study site, relative to an unsmoothed mean length of 138.6 m in this site. The largest decrease in mean flow path length was 48.9 m using the 21 × 21 mean filter and D∞ flow directions in the low-relief study site, relative to an unsmoothed mean length of 290.9 m in this site. Furthermore, minimal flow path length alterations were achieved with the Gaussian filter when gentle smoothing is required, and with the FPDEMS filter when moderate to aggressive smoothing is required. These results suggest that an appropriate smoothing method should be chosen based on the relief of the landscape and the degree of smoothing required.  相似文献   

Oxygen stable isotope ratios from British oak tree-rings provide a strong and consistent record of past changes in summer rainfall     

Giles H. F. Young  Neil J. Loader  Danny McCarroll  Roderick J. Bale  Joanne C. Demmler  Daniel Miles  Nigel T. Nayling  Katja T. Rinne  Iain Robertson  Camilla Watts  Matthew Whitney 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(11-12):3609-3622

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Simulating the Carbon Cycling of Northern Peatlands Using a Land Surface Scheme Coupled to a Wetland Carbon Model (CLASS3W-MWM)     

Jianghua Wu  Nigel T. Roulet  Mats Nilsson  Peter Lafleur  Elyn Humphreys 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):487-506

Northern peatlands store approximately one-third of the terrestrial soil carbon (C), although they cover only 3% of the global land mass. Northern peatlands can be subdivided into bogs and fens based on their hydrology and biogeochemistry. Peatland hydrology and biogeochemistry are tightly coupled to climate and, therefore, may be very sensitive to climate variability and change. To address the fate of the large peatland soil C storage under a future changed climate, a peatland C model, the McGill Wetland Model (MWM), was coupled to a land surface climate model (the wetland version of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme, CLASS3W), referred as CLASS3W-MWM. We evaluated the CLASS3W-MWM for a bog (Mer Bleue, located at 45.41°N, 75.48°W, in eastern Canada) and a poor fen (Degerö Stormyr, located at 64°11′N, 19°33′E, in northern Sweden).

CLASS3W-MWM captured the magnitude and direction of the present day C cycling very well for both bogs and fens. Moreover, the seasonal and interannual variability were reproduced reasonably well. Root mean square errors (RMSE) were <0.65 and the degree of agreements (d*) were >0.8 for the components of net ecosystem production (NEP) for both the Mer Bleue bog and the Degerö Stormyr fen. The performance of the coupled model for both bog and fen is similar to that of the stand-alone MWM driven by observed weather rather than simulated surface and soil climate. This modelling study suggests that northern peatlands are hydrologically and thermally conservative ecosystems. It was also shown that C cycling for bogs and fens was more sensitive to changes in air temperature than precipitation. Changes in temperature within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected range switch the peatlands from a present-day C sink to a source, but projected changes in precipitation still maintain the peatlands as a C sink, although to a somewhat lesser degree. Increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration enhances C sequestration for both bogs and fens. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that northern peatlands respond to changes in temperature, precipitation and doubled CO₂ concentration in a highly non-linear way. The sensitivity of C cycling in northern peatlands with respect to changes in air temperature, precipitation and the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ together is not a simple addition or subtraction of the sensitivity of the individual changes. Therefore, the sensitivity of a combination of changes in temperature, precipitation and doubled CO₂ concentration is very different from the sensitivity of peatlands to each environmental variable on their own. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that fens have a narrower tolerance to climate changes than bogs.

RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Les tourbières du Nord renferment approximativement le tiers du carbone se trouvant dans le sol terrestre, même si elles ne couvrent que 3% des terres du globe. On peut subdiviser les tourbières du Nord en tourbières hautes et en tourbières basses selon leur hydrologie et leur biogéochimie. L'hydrologie et la biogéochimie des tourbières sont intimement liées au climat et peuvent donc être très sensibles à la variabilité et au changement climatique. Pour étudier comment évoluera le stockage du carbone dans les grands terrains tourbeux sous un climat futur modifié, nous avons couplé un modèle de carbone de tourbière, le McGill Wetland Model (MWM), à un modèle climatique de surface terrestre (la version terres humides du CLASS3W canadien), c'est-à-dire le CLASS3W–MWM. Nous avons évalué le CLASS3W–MWM pour une tourbière haute (Mer Bleue, situé à 45,41°N, 75,48°O, dans l'est du Canada) et pour une tourbière basse ombrotrophe (Degerö Stormyr, situé à 64°11′N, 19°33′E, dans le nord de la Suède).

Le CLASS3W–MWM a très bien capturé la grandeur et la direction du recyclage actuel du carbone, tant pour les tourbières hautes que pour les tourbières basses. De plus, la variabilité saisonnière et interannuelle a été raisonnablement bien reproduire. Les écarts-types étaient <0,65 et les degrés de concordance (d*) étaient >0,8 pour les composantes de la production nette de l’écosystème tant pour la tourbière haute Mer Bleue que pour la tourbière basse Degerö Stormyr. La performance du modèle couplé pour la tourbière haute et la tourbière basse est semblable à celle du MWM autonome piloté par des conditions observées plutôt que par un climat simulé de la surface et du sol. Cette étude par modèle suggère que les tourbières du Nord sont des écosystèmes hydrologiquement et thermiquement conservatifs. Il a aussi été démontré que le recyclage du carbone pour les tourbières hautes et basses était plus sensible aux changements dans la température de l'air que dans les précipitations. Des changements de température de l'ordre de ceux projetés par le Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) font que les actuels puits de carbone que constituent les tourbières se transforment en sources, mais les changements projetés dans les précipitations maintiennent encore les tourbières comme des puits de carbone, quoique dans une moindre mesure. L'accroissement de la concentration du CO₂ atmosphérique améliore la séquestration du carbone à la fois pour les tourbières hautes et les tourbières basses. Notre analyse de sensibilité suggère que les tourbières du Nord réagissent aux changements dans la température et les précipitations et à une concentration doublée de CO₂ d'une façon fort peu linéaire. La sensibilité du recyclage du carbone dans les tourbières du Nord par rapport aux changements dans la température de l'air, les précipitations et la concentration du CO₂ atmosphérique ensemble n'est pas une simple addition ou soustraction de la sensibilité aux changements individuels. Par conséquent, la sensibilité à une combinaison de changements dans la température et les précipitations et à une concentration doublée de CO₂ est très différente de la sensibilité des tourbières à chaque variable environnementale prise seule. Notre analyse de sensibilité suggère que les tourbières basses ont une plus faible tolérance aux changements climatiques que les tourbières hautes.  相似文献   

Feature: The sedimentary signature of deserts and their response to environmental change     

Nigel P. Mountney 《Geology Today》2004,20(3):101-106

Desert sedimentary systems comprise a variety of related sub-environments including aeolian dunes, intervening interdunes, sandsheets, salt flats, playa lakes, ephemeral fluvial systems and alluvial fans. These are highly sensitive, and undergo subtle but systematic morphological and sedimentary adjustments in response to externally-imposed environmental change. This article presents a dynamic model explaining how desert successions – particularly aeolian dune and interdune environments – are determined both by intrinsic sedimentary behaviour, such as dune migration, and by the imposition of externally-forced changes such as climate change.  相似文献   

Environmental attitudes and adventure tourism motivations     

Julia Kathryn Giddy  Nigel Leigh Webb 《GeoJournal》2018,83(2):275-287

The natural environment plays an important role in adventure tourism. Specific environments are often necessary for certain types of adventure tourism and unique settings are seen to enhance the value of adventure tourism experiences. Given the importance of the environment in adventure tourism, the interplay between humans and the environment in this context should be given further attention. Although much research has examined the physical environmental impacts caused by specific activities considered adventure tourism, the impact of the environment on the behavior of adventure tourists has only briefly been touched upon. Environmental attitudes are said to be an indicator of environmentally conscious behavior. In the tourism context, however, conflicting results have been found as to whether or not environmental attitudes drive consumer behavior. Therefore, the manner in which environmental attitudes, using the New Environmental Paradigm scale, influence the motivations of participants in adventure tourism is investigated using the case of commercial adventure tourism in South Africa. The results show that the environmental attitudes of this group of tourists were relatively low and that the links between environmental attitudes and adventure tourism motivations are relatively weak. Therefore, the impact of general environmental attitudes on adventure tourist behavior is questionable.  相似文献