Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on CMIP5 Models简     

YAN Qing  WANG Huijun  Ola M.JOHANNESSEN  ZHANG Zhongshi 《大气科学进展》2014,31(1):8-16

Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.  相似文献   

Obituary          下载免费PDF全文

WANG Hui-Jun  Ola M. JOHANNESSEN 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(4)

正In Memory of Dr.Peter James LAMB(21 June 1947-28 May 2014)Dr.Peter James LAMB,Editor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters(AOSL);George Lynn Cross Research Professor of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma;Director,NOAA Cooperative Institute of Mesoscale Meteorological Studies,passed away in his home in Norman,Oklahoma on 28 May 2014.He was born on 21 June 1947  相似文献   

Sedimentary evolution and environmental history of Lake Van (Turkey) over the past 600 000 years   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mona Stockhecke  Michael Sturm  Irene Brunner  Hans‐Ulrich Schmincke  Mari Sumita  Rolf Kipfer  Deniz Cukur  Ola Kwiecien  Flavio S. Anselmetti 《Sedimentology》2014,61(6):1830-1861

The lithostratigraphic framework of Lake Van, eastern Turkey, has been systematically analysed to document the sedimentary evolution and the environmental history of the lake during the past ca 600 000 years. The lithostratigraphy and chemostratigraphy of a 219 m long drill core from Lake Van serve to separate global climate oscillations from local factors caused by tectonic and volcanic activity. An age model was established based on the climatostratigraphic alignment of chemical and lithological signatures, validated by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages. The drilled sequence consists of ca 76% lacustrine carbonaceous clayey silt, ca 2% fluvial deposits, ca 17% volcaniclastic deposits and 5% gaps. Six lacustrine lithotypes were separated from the fluvial and event deposits, such as volcaniclastics (ca 300 layers) and graded beds (ca 375 layers), and their depositional environments are documented. These lithotypes are: (i) graded beds frequently intercalated with varved clayey silts reflecting rising lake levels during the terminations; (ii) varved clayey silts reflecting strong seasonality and an intralake oxic–anoxic boundary, for example, lake‐level highstands during interglacials/interstadials; (iii) CaCO₃‐rich banded sediments which are representative of a lowering of the oxic–anoxic boundary, for example, lake level decreases during glacial inceptions; (iv) CaCO₃‐poor banded and mottled clayey silts reflecting an oxic–anoxic boundary close to the sediment–water interface, for example, lake‐level lowstands during glacials/stadials; (v) diatomaceous muds were deposited during the early beginning of the lake as a fresh water system; and (vi) fluvial sands and gravels indicating the initial flooding of the lake basin. The recurrence of lithologies (i) to (iv) follows the past five glacial/interglacial cycles. A 20 m thick disturbed unit reflects an interval of major tectonic activity in Lake Van at ca 414 ka bp . Although local environmental processes such as tectonic and volcanic activity influenced sedimentation, the lithostratigraphic pattern and organic matter content clearly reflect past global climate changes, making Lake Van an outstanding terrestrial archive of unprecedented sensitivity for the reconstruction of the regional climate over the last 600 000 years.  相似文献   

Fisheries rent creation and distribution—the imaginary case of Codland     

Ola Flaaten 《Marine Policy》2010

This paper discusses actual and possible achievements and failures of Codland and examines it from the point of view of efficiency and in terms of distribution. Joint analysis of the two approaches is needed when contemplating fisheries management reforms, since such reforms may create both winners and losers. The analysis demonstrates how rent drain from fishing communities and countries may occur despite significant resource rent creation. The change in the Codland economy is illustrated and compared to that of actual countries and to resource economic theory. It is concluded that if distributional and equity objectives matter, other instruments than ITQs, such as conditional tradeable fish quotas and vessel licences, resource taxes, co-management, public ownership, auctions, leases, time limited rights, time and area regulations, territorial user rights (TURFs) and marine protected areas (MPAs), should also be used.  相似文献