The risks to human populations in coastal areas are changing due to climate and socio-economic changes, and these trends are predicted to accelerate during the twenty-first century. To understand these changing risks, and the resulting choices and pathways to successful management and adaptation, broad-scale integrated assessment is essential. Due to their complexity the two risks of flooding and erosion are usually managed independently, yet frequently they are interconnected by longshore exchange of sediments and the resulting broad scale morphological system behaviour. In order to generate new insights into the effects of climate change and coastal management practises on coastal erosion and flood risk, we present an integrated assessment of 72 km of shoreline over the twenty-first century on the East Anglian coast of England which is a site of significant controversy about how to manage coastal flood and erosion risks over the twenty-first century. A coupled system of hydrodynamic, morphological, reliability and socio-economic models has been developed for the analysis, implemented under scenarios of coastal management, climate and socio-economic change. The study is unique in coastal management terms because of the large spatial scale and extended temporal scale over which the analysis is quantified. This study for the first time quantifies what has for some years been argued qualitatively: the role of sediments released from cliff erosion in protecting neighbouring low-lying land from flooding. The losses and benefits are expressed using the common currency of economic risk. The analysis demonstrates that over the twenty-first century, flood risk in the study area is expected to be an order of magnitude greater than erosion risk. Climate and socio-economic change and coastal management policy have a significant influence on flood risk. This study demonstrates that the choices concerning coastal management are profound, and there are clear tradeoffs between erosion and flood impacts. 相似文献
This contribution reports our preliminary work to determine Cu isotope ratios for various granite rocks and examine the Cu isotope systematics within granite suites. A chemical procedure, modified from Maréchal [Maréchal, C.N., Télouk, P. and Albarède, F., 1999. Precise analysis of copper and zinc isotopic compositions by plasma-source mass spectrometry. Chemical Geology, 156(1–4): 251–273.], was used to separate Cu from rock matrix. Quantitative recovery (100.6 ± 1.6%), with a low total procedural blank (2.65 ± 0.66 ng) for Cu, has been achieved, allowing Cu isotopic measurements on samples with as little as 10 ppm Cu. The Cu isotope ratios (δ65Cu relative to NIST SRM 976) of 32 rock samples, ranging from mafic to felsic compositions, from 3 batholiths (2 I-type, 1 S-type) from the Lachlan Fold Belt in southeastern Australia, vary from ? 0.46‰ to 1.51‰. Most of them cluster around zero, with mean values for the I-type and S-type granites of 0.03 ± 0.15‰ and ? 0.03 ± 0.42‰ (2 sigma) respectively. These data, together with Cu isotope ratios of two loess samples, provide preliminary evidence that the baseline Cu isotopic composition of the crystalline part of upper continental crust is close to zero. The tight clustering of Cu isotope ratios of rocks from the I-type suites suggests that high-temperature magmatic processes do not produce significant Cu isotope fractionation. However, two granites with abnormally heavy Cu isotope signatures (up to 1.51‰) appears to be the result of localized hydrothermal alteration. Measurable variation in Cu isotopic composition of the S-type granite may reflect isotopic heterogeneity in the sedimentary source region as a result of redox processes or may be due to hydrothermal overprinting. Thus, Cu isotope geochemistry may be a useful tracer for studying hydrothermal alteration and source heterogeneity of granitic rocks. 相似文献
The chemistry of pore water is an important property of clayrocks being considered as host rocks for long-term storage of radioactive waste. It may be difficult, if not impossible, to obtain water samples for chemical analysis from such rocks because of their low hydraulic conductivity. This paper presents an approach for calculating the pore-water compositions of clayrocks from laboratory-measured properties of core samples, including their leachable Cl and SO4 concentrations and analysed exchangeable cations, and from mineral and cation exchange equilibria based on the formation mineralogy. New core sampling and analysis procedures are presented that reduce or quantify side reactions such as sample oxidation (e.g. pyrite) and soluble mineral dissolution (celestite, SrSO4) that affect measured SO4 concentrations and exchangeable cation distributions. The model considers phase equilibria only with minerals that are observed in the formation including the principal clay phases. The model has been used to calculate the composition of mobile pore water in the Callovo-Oxfordian clayrock and validated against measurements of water chemistry made in an underground research laboratory in that formation. The model reproduces the measured, in situ pore-water composition without any estimated parameters. All required parameters can be obtained from core sample analysis. We highlight the need to consider only those mineral phases which can be shown to be in equilibrium with contacting pore water. The consequence of this is that some conceptual models available in the literature appear not to be appropriate for modelling clayrocks, particularly those considering high temperature and/or high pressure detrital phases as chemical buffers of pore water. The robustness of our model with respect to uncertainties in the log K values of clay phases is also demonstrated. Large uncertainties in log K values for clay minerals have relatively small effects on modelled pore-water compositions. 相似文献
The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will be the world’s largest and most sensitive radio telescope. It will address fundamental unanswered questions about our Universe including how the first stars and galaxies formed after the Big Bang, how dark energy is accelerating the expansion of theUniverse, the role of magnetism in the cosmos, the nature of gravity, and the search for life beyond Earth. This project envisages the construction of 133 15-m antennas in South Africa and 131072 log-periodic antennas in Australia, together with the associated infrastructure in the two desert sites. In addition, the SKA is an exemplar Big Data project, with data rates of over 10 Tbps being transported from the telescope to HPC/HTC facilities. 相似文献
Case deletion diagnostics are developed for detecting observations that are influential in estimating the covariance function of a spatial random field. Diagnostics are developed within the context of universal kriging. Computational formulae are given that make the procedures feasible and the diagnostics are illustrated in an example. 相似文献
Field relations and whole-rock geochemistry indicate that magma mixing has been important in the genesis of the late Mesozoic I-type igneous complexes at Pingtan and Tonglu in SE China. Morphological and trace-element studies of zircon populations in rocks from each of these complexes have defined several distinct growth stages [Mineral. Mag. (2001)]. In-situ LAM-MC-ICPMS microanalysis shows large variations in 176Hf/177Hf (up to 15 Hf units) between zircons of different growth stages within a single rock, and between zones within single zircon grains (up to 9 Hf units). These variations suggest that each of the observed magmas in both complexes developed through hybridisation of ≥2 magmas with different sources. Although this mixing has produced similar Sr and Nd isotopic compositions in the different rock types of each complex, the zircons have functioned as “tape recorders” and have preserved details of the assembly of the different magmas.
In the Tonglu complex the most primitive magma is a mafic monzonite (preserved as enclaves), whose isotopic composition suggests derivation from the lower crust; rhyodacites, rhyolites and quartz diorites reflect the mixing of the monzonite with ≥2 more felsic magmas, derived from older crustal materials. In the Pingtan complex, zircons in a quartz diorite enclave suggest mixing between a crustal magma and a more primitive mantle-derived component. Zircons from granites and granodiorite enclaves indicate mixing between the quartz diorite and more felsic melts with lower 176Hf/177Hf. Major changes in 176Hf/177Hf correlate with discontinuous changes in the trace-element composition and morphology of the zircons, in particular the development of sector zoning that suggests rapid disequilibrium crystallisation. We suggest that the magma mixing recorded by the changes in 176Hf/177Hf occurred during transport in magma conduits. The in-situ analysis of Hf-isotopic stratigraphy in zircons is a new and powerful tool for the detailed study of magma generation processes. 相似文献
Mid-Proterozoic calc-alkaline granitoids from southern Norway, and their extrusive equivalents have been dated by LAM-ICPMS U–Pb on zircons to ages ranging from 1.61 to 1.52 Ga; there are no systematic age differences across potential Precambrian terrane boundaries in the region. U–Pb and Lu–Hf data on detrital zircons from metasedimentary gneisses belonging to the arc association show that these were mainly derived from ca. 1.6 Ga arc-related rocks. They also contain a minor but significant fraction of material derived from (at least) two distinct older (1.7–1.8 Ga) sources; one has a clear continental signature, and the other represents juvenile, depleted mantle-derived material. The former component resided in granitoids of the Transscandinavian Igneous Belt, the other in mafic rocks related to these granites or to the earliest, subduction-related magmatism in the region. Together with published data from south Norway and southwest Sweden, these findings suggest that the western margin of the Baltic Shield was the site of continuous magmatic arc evolution from at least ca 1.66 to 1.50 Ga. Most of the calc-alkaline metaigneous rocks formed in this period show major- and trace-element characteristics of rocks formed in a normal continental margin magmatic arc. The exceptions are the Stora Le-Marstrand belt in Sweden and the Kongsberg complex of Norway, which have an arc-tholeiitic chemical affinity. The new data from south Norway do not justify a suggestion that the crust on the west side of the Oslo Rift had an early to mid-Proterozoic history different from the crust to the east. Instead, they indicate that the different parts of south Norway and southwest Sweden were situated at the margin of the Baltic Shield throughout the mid-Proterozoic. Changes from arc tholeitic to calc-alkaline magmatism reflect changes with time in the subduction zone system, or lateral differences in subduction zone geometry. The NW American Cordillera may be a useful present-day analogue for the tectonomagmatic evolution of the mid-Proterozoic Baltic margin. 相似文献