Keck spectroscopy of the faint dwarf elliptical galaxy population in the Perseus Cluster core: mixed stellar populations and a flat luminosity function     

Samantha J. Penny  Christopher J. Conselice 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,383(1):247-257

We present the result of a photometric and Keck low-resolution imaging spectrometer (LRIS) spectroscopic study of dwarf galaxies in the core of the Perseus Cluster, down to a magnitude of   M _B =−12.5  . Spectra were obtained for 23 dwarf-galaxy candidates, from which we measure radial velocities and stellar population characteristics from absorption line indices. From radial velocities obtained using these spectra, we confirm 12 systems as cluster members, with the remaining 11 as non-members. Using these newly confirmed cluster members, we are able to extend the confirmed colour–magnitude relation for the Perseus Cluster down to   M _B =−12.5  . We confirm an increase in the scatter about the colour–magnitude relationship below   M _B =−15.5  , but reject the hypothesis that very red dwarfs are cluster members. We measure the faint-end slope of the luminosity function between   M _B =−18  and −12.5, finding  α=−1.26 ± 0.06  , which is similar to that of the field. This implies that an overabundance of dwarf galaxies does not exist in the core of the Perseus Cluster. By comparing metal and Balmer absorption line indices with α-enhanced single stellar population models, we derive ages and metallicities for these newly confirmed cluster members. We find two distinct dwarf elliptical populations: an old, metal-poor population with ages ∼8 Gyr and metallicities  [Fe/H] < −0.33  , and a young, metal-rich population with ages <5 Gyr and metallicities  [Fe/H] > −0.33  . Dwarf galaxies in the Perseus Cluster are therefore not a simple homogeneous population, but rather exhibit a range in age and metallicity.  相似文献   

Estimation of possible climate change impacts on water availability, extreme flow events and soil moisture in the Goulburn and Ovens Basins, Victoria     

S. Yu. Schreider  A. J. Jakeman  A. B. Pittoc  P. H. Whetton 《Climatic change》1996,34(3-4):513-546

A rainfall-runoff model (IHACRES) is applied on a daily timestep to a large area of the state of Victoria, Australia. Successful calibrations of this dynamic lumped parameter model were performed for 5 rivers contributing streamflow to the Ovens Basin, and for 9 rivers of the Goulburn Basin. This is the first application of the model on such a scale, involving two basins where the total drainage area of the catchments modelled is about 6,500 km². The models were tested by simulation over the entire common period of observation for the 14 catchments under consideration. The results show that the models closely simulate the observed streamflow.The effect of historical climate variability on streamflow was investigated. The models were used for estimation of the potential impact of climatic change on water availability for irrigation for different climate scenarios developed in the Division of Atmospheric Research, CSIRO. This allows conditional estimates to be made of water supply in these basins for the periods 2030 and 2070 under current vegetation conditions. Projecting the future hydrologic regime in this region is extremely important, in particular for supporting irrigation management of the Basin.The problem of estimating the impact of climate change on the probability of extreme events of the hydrological regime was analysed. Flood frequency was found to increase for the scenarios providing the maximum amount of water; to 50% at 2030 and 100% at 2070. The probability of flood events for the dry scenarios rapidly decreases for these dates. Drought frequency, as defined by a soil wetness index, increased 35% for the dry scenario at 2030 and 80% for this scenario at 2070.  相似文献   

Assessment of boundary-element method for modelling a free-floating sloped wave energy device. Part 2: Experimental validation     

Grgory S. Payne  Jamie R.M. Taylor  Tom Bruce  Penny Parkin 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(3-4):342-357

The boundary-element method has been widely used as a design tool in the offshore and ship building industry for more than 30 years. Its application to wave energy conversion is, however, more recent. This is the second of two papers on a comparison of numerical and physical modelling of a free-floating sloped wave energy converter. In the first paper the numerical modelling formulation for the power take-off mechanism was derived using the boundary-element method package WAMIT. It was verified against numerical benchmark data. In this paper, the outcome of the modelling of the whole device is compared with experimental measurements obtained from model testing in a wave tank. The agreement is generally good.  相似文献   

Can Jupiters be found by monitoring Galactic bulge microlensing events from northern sites?     

Yiannis Tsapras  Rachel A. Street  Keith Horne  Alan Penny  Fraser Clarke  Hans Deeg  Francisco Garzon  Simon Kemp  Maria Rosa Zapatero Osorio  Alejandro Oscoz Abad  Santiago Madruga Sanchez  Carlos Eiroa  Alcione Mora  Antxon Alberdi  rew Cameron  John K. Davies  Roger Ferlet  Carol Grady  Allan W. Harris  Javier Palacios  reas Quirrenbach  Heike Rauer  Jean Schneider  Dolf de Winter  Bruno Merin  Enrique Solano 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,325(3):1205-1212

In 1998 the EXPORT team monitored microlensing event light curves using a charge-coupled device (CCD) camera on the IAC 0.8-m telescope on Tenerife to evaluate the prospect of using northern telescopes to find microlens anomalies that reveal planets orbiting the lens stars. The high airmass and more limited time available for observations of Galactic bulge sources make a northern site less favourable for microlensing planet searches. However, there are potentially a large number of northern 1-m class telescopes that could devote a few hours per night to monitor ongoing microlensing events. Our IAC observations indicate that accuracies sufficient to detect planets can be achieved despite the higher airmass.  相似文献   

Probabilistic projections of regional temperature and precipitation extending from observed time series     

I. G. Watterson  P. H. Whetton 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):677-691

Probabilistic projections of change in regional temperature and precipitation previously derived allow for the range of sensitivities to global warming simulated by CMIP3 models. However, the changes were relative to an idealized base climate for 1980–1999, disregarding observed trends, such as those in rainfall in some Australian regions. Here we propose a method that represents projections for both forced change and decadal means as time series that extend from the observed series, illustrated using data for central Victoria. The main idea is to estimate the time-evolving underlying (or forced) past climate then convert this to a series of absolute values, by using the mean of the full observational record. We again use the pattern scaling assumption, and combine the CMIP3 sensitivities used for future change with a global warming series beginning at 1900. Like the confidence interval of regression theory, the analysis gives an estimate of the range of the underlying climate at each decade. This range can be augmented to allow for natural variability. A Bayesian theory can be applied to combine the model-based sensitivity with that estimated from observations. The time series are modified and the persistence of current observed anomalies considered, ultimately merging the probabilistic projections with the observed record. For some other cases, such as rainfall in southwest and north Australia and temperature in the state of Iowa, the two sensitivity estimates appear less compatible, and possible additional forcings are considered. Examples of the potential use of such time series are presented.  相似文献   

Consistency of simulated and observed regional changes in temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation     

J. Bhend  P. Whetton 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):799-810

There is increasing pressure from stakeholders for highly localised climate change projections. A comprehensive assessment of climate model performance at the grid box scale in simulating recent change, however, is not available at present. Therefore, we compare observed changes in near-surface temperature, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation with simulations available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5). In both multi-model datasets we find coherent areas of inconsistency between observed and simulated local trends per degree global warming in both temperature and SLP in the majority of models. Localised projections should thus take into account the possibility of regional biases shared across models. In contrast, simulated changes in precipitation are not significantly different from observations due to low signal-to-noise ratio of local precipitation changes. Therefore, recent regional rainfall change is likely not providing useful constraints for future projections as of yet. Comparing the two most recent sets of internationally coordinated climate model experiments, we find no indication of improvement in the models’ ability to reproduce local trends in temperature, SLP and precipitation.  相似文献   

Searching for planetary transits in the field of open cluster NGC 6819 – I     

R. A. Street  Keith Horne  T. A. Lister  A. J. Penny  Y. Tsapras  A. Quirrenbach  N. Safizadeh  D. Mitchell  J. Cooke  A. Collier Cameron 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,340(4):1287-1297

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A process-based approach to attribution of historical streamflow decline in a data-scarce and human-dominated watershed     

Gopal Penny  Veena Srinivasan  R. Apoorva  Kirubaharan Jeremiah  Joshua Peschel  Sierra Young  Sally Thompson 《水文研究》2020,34(8):1981-1995

Human activities have resulted in rapid hydrological change around the world, in many cases producing shifts in the dominant hydrological processes, confounding predictions, and complicating effective management and planning. Identifying and characterizing such changes in hydrological processes is therefore a globally relevant problem, one that is particularly challenging in sparsely monitored environments. We develop a novel, process-based approach for attribution of hydrological change in such scenarios and apply the approach to the TG Halli watershed outside Bangalore, India, where streamflow has declined considerably over the last 50 years. The approach consists of (a) employing a range of field instrumentation and experiments to identify contemporary streamflow generation mechanisms, (b) using these observations to constrain our understanding and generate hypotheses pertaining to historical changes, and (c) evaluating these hypotheses with a range of evidence including proxies for historical hydrological processes. The body of evidence in the TG Halli watershed indicates the historical presence and subsequent loss of a shallow groundwater table that previously discharged to the stream, meaning that groundwater depletion is the most likely driver of streamflow decline. These findings present a viable path towards improved predictions of future water resources and sustainable water management within the watershed. Our process-based approach to attribution has the potential to improve understanding of human-driven hydrological change in regions with poor monitoring of hydrological systems.  相似文献   

Tectonic evolution of the North Sea basin: crustal stretching and subsidence   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Penny Barton  Rosy Wood 《Geophysical Journal International》1984,79(3):987-1022

Summary. The lithospheric stretching model for the formation of sedimentary basins was tested in the central North Sea by a combined study of crustal thinning and basement subsidence patterns. A profile of crustal structure was obtained by shooting a long-range seismic experiment across the Central Graben, the main axis of subsidence. A seabed array of 12 seismometers in the graben was used to record shots fired in a line 530 km long across the basin. The data collected during the experiment were interpreted by modelling synthetic seismograms from a laterally varying structure, and the final model showed substantial crustal thinning beneath the graben. Subsidence data from 19 exploration wells were analysed to obtain subsidence patterns in the central North Sea since Jurassic times. Changes in water depth were quantified using foraminiferal assemblages where possible, and observed basement subsidence paths were corrected for sediment loading, compaction and changes in water depth through time. The seismic model is shown to be compatible with the observed gravity field, and the small size of observed gravity anomalies is used to argue that the basin is in local isostatic equilibrium. Both crustal thinning and basement subsidence studies indicate about 70 km of stretching across the Central Graben during the mid-Jurassic to early Cretaceous extensional event. This extension appears to have occurred over crust already slightly thinned beneath the graben, and the seismic data suggest that total extension since the early Permian may have been more than 100km. The data presented here may all be explained using a simple model of uniform extension of the lithosphere.  相似文献   

Modes of SST variability and the fluctuation of global mean temperature     

W. Cai  P. H. Whetton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,17(11):889-901

Annually averaged global mean land air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) combined, and global mean SST alone share similar fluctuations. We examine contributions by modes of SST variability in the global mean SST based on a new version (version 3) of global sea-ice and SST (GISST3). Besides a trend mode, the dominant modes are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), interhemispheric oscillation, and North Pacific oscillation. Statistics over the period of 1880–1997 show that excluding a warming trend the fluctuation on interannual (IA) and decadal-interdecadal (DID) time scales is dominated by IA ENSO and DID ENSO-like variability. However, the contribution by IA ENSO cycles experiences significant fluctuations, and there appears to be strong modulations by ENSO-like variability on DID or longer time scales: during several decade-long periods, when DID ENSO-like variability raises the temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific, the contribution by IA ENSO cycles weakens to an insignificant level. The latest example of such modulation is the period since about 1980; despite the exceptional strength of El Niño events, the contribution by IA ENSO cycles weakens, suggesting that the exceptional strength is a consequence of superposition of IA El Niño events, a warming phase of DID ENSO-like variability, and possibly an ENSO-like warming trend.  相似文献