Importance of oceanic resolution and mean state on the extra-tropical response to El Niño in a matrix of coupled models     

Andrew Dawson  Adrian J. Matthews  David P. Stevens  Malcolm J. Roberts  Pier Luigi Vidale 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1439-1452

The extra-tropical response to El Niño in configurations of a coupled model with increased horizontal resolution in the oceanic component is shown to be more realistic than in configurations with a low resolution oceanic component. This general conclusion is independent of the atmospheric resolution. Resolving small-scale processes in the ocean produces a more realistic oceanic mean state, with a reduced cold tongue bias, which in turn allows the atmospheric model component to be forced more realistically. A realistic atmospheric basic state is critical in order to represent Rossby wave propagation in response to El Niño, and hence the extra-tropical response to El Niño. Through the use of high and low resolution configurations of the forced atmospheric-only model component we show that, in isolation, atmospheric resolution does not significantly affect the simulation of the extra-tropical response to El Niño. It is demonstrated, through perturbations to the SST forcing of the atmospheric model component, that biases in the climatological SST field typical of coupled model configurations with low oceanic resolution can account for the erroneous atmospheric basic state seen in these coupled model configurations. These results highlight the importance of resolving small-scale oceanic processes in producing a realistic large-scale mean climate in coupled models, and suggest that it might may be possible to “squeeze out” valuable extra performance from coupled models through increases to oceanic resolution alone.  相似文献   

The impact of cosmic dust on supernova cosmology   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Pier Stefano Corasaniti 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,372(1):191-198

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Impacts of thermohaline circulation shutdown in the twenty-first century   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Michael Vellinga  Richard A. Wood 《Climatic change》2008,91(1-2):43-63

We discuss climate impacts of a hypothetical shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (‘THC’) in the 2050s, using the climate model HadCM3. Previous studies have generally focussed on the effects on pre-industrial climate. Here we take into account increased greenhouse gas concentrations according to an IS92a emissions scenario. THC shutdown causes cooling of the Northern Hemisphere of -1.7?C, locally stronger. Over western Europe cooling is strong enough for a return to pre-industrial conditions and a significant increase in the occurrence of frost and snow cover. Global warming restricts the increase in sea ice cover after THC shutdown. This lessens the amount of cooling over NW Europe, but increases it over North America, compared to pre-industrial shutdown. This reflects a non-linearity in the local temperature response to THC shutdown. Precipitation change after THC shutdown is generally opposite to that caused by global warming, except in western and southern Europe, where summer drying is enhanced, and in Central America and southeast Asia, where precipitation is also further reduced. Local rise in sea level after THC shutdown can be large along Atlantic coasts (pm; 25,cm), which would add to the rise caused by global warming. Potentially rapid THC shutdown adds to the range of uncertainty of projected future climate change.  相似文献   

Beach and dune erosion during storm surges — Reply     

P. Vellinga 《Coastal Engineering》1984,8(2):191-192

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Structural setting of the Bay of Naples (Italy) seismic reflection data: implications for Campanian volcanism     

Pier Paolo G. Bruno  Antonio Rapolla  Vincenzo Di Fiore 《Tectonophysics》2003,372(3-4):193-213

This paper focuses on the recent tectonic evolution of the Bay of Naples with the aim of exploring the connection between local tectonics and volcanism. We reprocessed the seismic reflection dataset acquired in the area in the late 1973. The new processing was highly successful in obtaining a decisive strong reduction of random noise, removal of coherent noise and reduction of spatial aliasing. Classical interpretative schemes and complex attributes of seismic traces were used to reconstruct fault kinematics and reflector patterns. The results show that the faults affecting the Bay of Naples exhibit prevailing NE structural strikes, with the exception of the Pozzuoli Caldera where NW patterns are also common. Many faults are subvertical and show seismic evidence of volcanic activity along them. A main alignment of conjugate NE–SW faults, named here as “Magnaghi–Sebeto line”, intersects several submarine volcanic banks and separates the bay into two sectors, characterized by important geological, geophysical and petrochemical differences. The structural configuration of the bay may reflect the occurrence of either oblique extension or a transfer zone of the NW–SE fault system, along which, in the Campanian–Lucanian Apennine chain, great vertical displacements occur.  相似文献   

Global Climatic Impacts of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation   总被引：31，自引：3，他引：31  

Michael Vellinga  Richard A. Wood 《Climatic change》2002,54(3):251-267

Part of the uncertainty in predictions by climate models results fromlimited knowledge of the stability of the thermohaline circulation ofthe ocean. Here we provide estimates of the response of pre-industrial surface climatevariables should the thermohalinecirculation in the Atlantic Ocean collapse. For this we have usedHadCM3, an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model that is run without fluxadjustments. In this model a temporary collapse was forced by applying a strong initial freshening to the top layers of the NorthAtlantic. In the first five decades after the collapse surface air temperatureresponse is dominated by cooling of much of the NorthernHemisphere (locally up to 8 °C, 1–2 °C on average) and weakwarming of theSouthern Hemisphere (locally up to 1 °C, 0.2 °C onaverage). Response is strongest around the North Atlantic but significant changesoccur over the entire globe and highlight rapidteleconnections.Precipitation is reduced over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere.A southward shift of the IntertropicalConvergence Zone over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific createschanges in precipitation that are particularly large in South America andAfrica. Colder and drier conditions in much of the Northern Hemisphere reducesoil moisture and net primary productivity of the terrestrial vegetation. Thisis only partlycompensated by more productivity in the Southern Hemisphere.The total global net primary productivity by the vegetation decreases by5%. It should be noted, however, that in this version of the model thevegetation distribution cannotchange, and atmospheric carbon levels are also fixed. After about 100 yearsthe model's thermohaline circulation has largelyrecovered, and most climatic anomalies disappear.  相似文献   

Intrusion of shoshonitic magmas at shallow crustal depth: <Emphasis Type="Italic">T</Emphasis>–<Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis> path,H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O estimates,and AFC modeling of the Middle Triassic Predazzo Intrusive Complex (Southern Alps,Italy)     

Federico?CasettaEmail author  Massimo?Coltorti  Ryan?B.?Ickert  Costanza?Bonadiman  Pier?Paolo?Giacomoni  Theodoros?Ntaflos 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(7):57

The multi-pulse shoshonitic Predazzo intrusive complex represents an ideal igneous laboratory for investigating the chemical and physical conditions of magma emplacement in a crustal context, since numerical models can be constrained by field evidence. It constitutes the most intriguing remnant of the Middle Triassic magmatic systems of the Dolomitic Area (Southern Alps), preserved by the Alpine tectonics. Predazzo Intrusive Complex comprises silica saturated (pyroxenites/gabbros to syenites), silica undersaturated (gabbros to syenites), and silica oversaturated (granites and syenogranites) rock suites. In this paper, we modeled its emplacement and evolution with a multiple thermo-/oxy-barometric, hygrometric, and EC-AFC approach. At odds with what proposed in literature but according to the field evidence, the emplacement of the Predazzo Intrusive Complex occurred at shallow depth (<?6 km). In this context, the different pulses differed slightly in bulk water content, but shared a common thermal regime, with temperatures between 1000 and 1100 °C and ~?600 °C at low-to-moderate oxidizing conditions (? 0.1 to +?0.7 ΔFMQ). The interaction between the intrusion and the shallow crustal rocks was minimal, with Sr and Nd isotopic compositions indicating an average of 5–6% assimilation of crust. A thermo- and oxy-barometric comparison with the nearby Mt. Monzoni also enabled to speculate about the solidification time of the intrusion, which we infer took place over about 700 ka.  相似文献   

The sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulation to modelling uncertainty in a perturbed physics ensemble without flux adjustment     

Laura C. Jackson  Michael Vellinga  Glen R. Harris 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(1-2):277-285

Ocean dynamics play a key role in the climate system, by redistributing heat and freshwater. The uncertainty of how these processes are represented in climate models, and how this uncertainty affects future climate projections can be investigated using perturbed physics ensembles of global circulation models (GCMs). Techniques such as flux adjustments should be avoided since they can impact the sensitivity of the ensemble to the imposed forcing. In this study a method for developing an coupled ensemble with a GCM that does not use flux adjustment is presented. The ensemble is constrained by using information from a prior ensemble with a mixed layer ocean coupled to an atmosphere GCM, to reduce drifts in the coupled ensemble. Constraints on parameter perturbations are derived by using observational constraints on surface temperature, and top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. As an example of such an ensemble developed with this methodology, uncertainty in response of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased CO₂ concentrations is investigated. The ensemble mean MOC strength is 17.1?Sv and decreases by 2.1?Sv when greenhouse gas concentrations are doubled. No rapid changes or shutdown of the MOC are seen in any of the ensemble members. There is a strong negative relationship between global mean temperature and MOC strength across the ensemble which is not seen in a multimodel ensemble. A positive relationship between climate sensitivity and the decrease of MOC strength is also seen.  相似文献   

Lithological influences on the fractal dimension of coastal morphology: the volcanic islands of Vulcano. Stromboli and Alicudi in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea     

Sabrina Leonardi  Francesco Mulargia  Pier Maria Luigi Rossi 《地学学报》1994,6(3):246-250

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Inconsistent patterns of historical seismicity and earthquake-triggered landsliding in southeastern Sicily: an alarm bell?     

Pier Giorgio Nicoletti   《Geomorphology》2005,65(3-4):257-278

In southeastern Sicily, the distribution pattern of earthquake-triggered landslides is inconsistent with historically known seismic activity. In particular, historical seismicity has been stronger in the eastern sector, while earthquake-triggered landsliding is much more developed in the western sector, and this contrasts with expectations. This paper describes the patterns of seismicity and landsliding, and tackles the problem of whether greater landsliding in the western sector may be due (a) to seismicity of the eastern sector or (b) to a high-magnitude, low-recurrence seismicity generated in the western sector itself. It is statistically shown that lithostructural characteristics of rock masses and geometry of hillslopes cannot justify, either singly or jointly, greater landsliding in the western sector if triggering earthquakes are generated in the eastern sector. As a consequence, it is possible that landsliding of the western sector is due to earthquakes generated locally, but having higher magnitude and longer recurrence intervals than historically observed.  相似文献