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11.
A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.  相似文献   
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13.
Effects of suspended mussel and infaunal clam cultivation on sediment characteristics, and benthic organic and inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes were compared in a shallow coastal lagoon. The two species had different impacts on sediment features, but both created “hotspots” of nutrient fluxes with annual N and P regeneration rates being 4.9 and 13.5 (mussel) and 4.5 and 14.9 (clams) fold greater than those of unfarmed control sediments. Mussel farming also caused considerable nutrient regeneration within the water column with the mussel ropes contributing ∼25% of total inorganic N and P production and at times dominating the sediments (e.g. 95% of SRP production in summer and 45% of DIN production in winter). Such nutrient regeneration rates seriously question the proposal that suspension-feeding bivalves act as a eutrophication buffer, especially during summer when nutrient regeneration rates are maximal, but other nutrient sources (freshwater run-off and unfarmed sediments) are at their lowest.  相似文献   
14.
This study combined water- and sediment flux measurements with mass balances of dissolved gas and inorganic matter to determine the importance of pelagic and benthic processes for whole-system metabolism in a eutrophic fluvial lake. Mass balances of dissolved O2, inorganic carbon (DIC), nitrogen (DIN), phosphorous (SRP), particulate N (PN) and P (PP) and Chl a were calculated at a nearly monthly frequency by means of repeated sampling at the lake inlet and outlet. Simultaneously, benthic fluxes of gas and nutrients, including denitrification rates, and the biomass of the dominant pleustophyte (Trapa natans) were measured, and fluxes of O2 and CO2 across the water–atmosphere interface were estimated from diel changes in outlet concentrations. On an annual scale, Middle Lake exhibited CO2 supersaturation, averaging 313% (range 86–562%), but was autotrophic with a net O2 production (6.35 ± 2.05 mol m−2 y−1), DIC consumption (−31.18 ± 18.77 mol m−2 y−1) and net export of Chl a downstream (8.38 ± 0.95 mol C m−2 y−1). Phytoplankton was the main driver of Middle Lake metabolism, with a net primary production estimated at 33.24 mol O2 m−2 y−1, corresponding to a sequestration of 4.18 and 0.26 mol m−2 y−1 of N and P, respectively. At peak biomass, T. natans covered about 18% of Middle Lake’s surface and fixed 2.46, 0.17 and 0.02 mol m−2 of C, N and P, respectively. Surficial sediments were a sink for O2 (−14.47 ± 0.65 mol O2 m−2 y−1) and a source of DIC and NH4 + (18.84 ± 2.80 mol DIC m−2 y−1 and 0.83 ± 0.16 mol NH4 + m−2 y−1), and dissipated nitrate via denitrification (1.44 ± 0.11 mol NO3  m−2 y−1). Overall, nutrient uptake by primary producers and regeneration from sediments were a minor fraction of external loads. This work suggests that the creation of fluvial lakes can produce net autotrophic systems, with elevated rates of phytoplanktonic primary production, largely sustained by allochtonous nutrient inputs. These hypereutrophic aquatic bodies are net C sinks, although they simultaneously release CO2 to the atmosphere.  相似文献   
15.
Natural Hazards - The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is one of the most used tools to forecast forest fire hazard. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the FWI to take into account the...  相似文献   
16.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this study, we investigated the consequences of climate change on bioclimatic indices in vineyards along the edge of Lake Neuchatel in Switzerland. Like in...  相似文献   
17.
A method for high-order treatment of uncertainties in preliminary orbit determination is presented. The observations consist in three couples of topocentric right ascensions and declinations at three observation epochs. The goal of preliminary orbit determination is to compute a trajectory that fits with the observations in two-body dynamics. The uncertainties of the observations are usually mapped to the phase space only when additional observations are available and a least squares fitting problem is set up. A method based on Taylor differential algebra for the analytical treatment of observation uncertainties is implemented. Taylor differential algebra allows for the efficient computation of the arbitrary order Taylor expansion of a sufficiently continuous multivariate function. This enables the mapping of the uncertainties from the observation space to the phase space as high-order multivariate Taylor polynomials. These maps can then be propagated forward in time to predict the observable set at successive epochs. This method can be suitably used to recover newly discovered objects when a scarce number of measurements is available. Simulated topocentric observations of asteroids on realistic orbits are used to assess the performances of the method.  相似文献   
18.
The Mesoscale Alpine Programme’s Riviera project investigated the turbulence structure and related exchange processes in an Alpine valley by combining a detailed experimental campaign with high-resolution numerical modelling. The present contribution reviews published material on the Riviera Valley’s boundary layer structure and discusses new material on the near-surface turbulence structure. The general conclusion of the project is that despite the large spatial variability of turbulence characteristics and the crucial influence of topography at all scales, the physical processes can accurately be understood and modelled. Nevertheless, many of the “text book characteristics” like the interaction between the valley and slope wind systems or the erosion of the nocturnal valley inversion need reconsideration, at least for small non-ideal valleys like the Riviera Valley. The project has identified new areas of research such as post-processing methods for turbulence variables in complex terrain and new approaches for the surface energy balance when advection is non-negligible. The exchange of moisture and heat between the valley atmosphere and the free troposphere is dominated by local “secondary” circulations due to the curvature of the valley axis. Because many curved valleys exist, and operational models still have rather poor resolution, parameterization of these processes may be required.  相似文献   
19.
A simulation experiment for optimal design hyetograph selection   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The aim of this work is to assess the accuracy of literature design hyetographs for the evaluation of peak discharges during flood events. Five design hyetographs are examined in a set of simulations, based upon the following steps: (i) an ideal river basin is defined, characterized by a Beta distribution shaped unit hydrograph (UH); (ii) 1000 years of synthetic rainfall are artificially generated; (iii) a discharge time‐series is obtained from the convolution of the rainfall time‐series and the UH, and the reference T‐years flood is computed from this series; (iv) for the same return period T, the parameters of the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve are estimated from the 1000 years of synthetic rainfall; (v) five design hyetographs are determined from the IDF curves and are convolved with the discrete UH to find the corresponding design hydrographs; (vi) the hydrograph peaks are compared with the reference T‐years flood and the advantages and drawbacks of each of the five approaches are evaluated. The rainfall and UH parameters are varied, and the whole procedure is repeated to assess the sensitivity of results to the system configuration. We found that all design hyetographs produce flood peak estimates that are consistently biased in most of the climatic and hydrologic conditions considered. In particular, significant underestimation of the design flood results from the adoption of any rectangular hyetograph used in the context of the rational formula. In contrast, the Chicago hyetograph tends to overestimate peak flows. In two cases it is sufficient to multiply the result by a constant scaling factor to obtain robust and nearly unbiased estimates of the design floods. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
20.
Under the assumption that accretion on to massive black holes (BHs) powers active galactic nuclei (AGNs), the mass function (MF) of the BHs responsible for their past activity is estimated. For this, we take into account not only the activity related to the optically selected AGNs, but also that required to produce the hard X-ray background (HXRB). The MF of the massive dark objects (MDOs) in nearby quiescent galaxies is computed by means of the most recent results on their demography. The two mass functions match well under the assumption that the activity is concentrated in a single significant burst with λ L L Edd being a weakly increasing function of luminosity. This behaviour may be indicative of some level of recurrence and/or of accretion rates insufficient to maintain the Eddington rates in low-luminosity/low-redshift objects. Our results support the scenario in which the early phase of intense nuclear activity occurred mainly in early-type galaxies (E/S0) during the relatively short period in which they still had an abundant interstellar medium. Only recently, with the decline of the quasi-stellar object (QSO) luminosities, did the activity in late‐type galaxies (Sa/Sab) become statistically significant.  相似文献   
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