Climate change and agriculture in computable general equilibrium models: alternative modeling strategies and data needs     

Ruslana Rachel Palatnik  Roberto Roson 《Climatic change》2012,112(3-4):1085-1100

Agricultural sectors play a key role in the economics of climate change. Land as an input to agricultural production is one of the most important links between economy and the biosphere, representing a direct projection of human action on the natural environment. Agricultural management practices and cropping patterns exert an enormous effect on biogeochemical cycles, freshwater availability and soil quality. Agriculture also plays an important role in emitting and storing greenhouse gases. To consistently investigate climate policy and future pathways for the economic and natural environment, a realistic representation of agricultural land use is essential. Top—down Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have increasingly been used for this purpose. CGE models simulate the simultaneous equilibrium in a set of interdependent markets, and are especially suited to analyze agricultural markets from a global perspective. However, modeling agricultural sectors in CGE models is not a trivial task, mainly because of differences in temporal and geographic aggregation scales. This study surveys some proposed modeling strategies and highlights different tradeoffs involved in the various approaches. Coupling of top-down and bottom-up models is found to be the most applicable for comprehensive analysis of agriculture in prism of climate change. However, linking interdisciplinary data, methods and outputs is still the major obstacle to be solved for wide-scale implementation.  相似文献   

A study of charge structure sensitivity in simulated thunderstorms     

Rumjana Mitzeva  Boryana Tsenova  Rachel Albrecht  Walt Petersen 《Atmospheric Research》2009,91(2-4):299-309

Two different thunderstorms are simulated by two distinct one-dimensional cloud models using four different parameterisations of the non-inductive mechanism of electric charging, based on laboratory studies. The results demonstrate that during the early (pre-lightning) stage of thunderstorm electrification, simulated charge density depends not only on the model charging parameterisation employed, but also on the specific representations of the kinematics and microphysical characteristics of the model itself. Though no conclusions are drawn regarding the physical suitability of the charging parameterisations themselves, the analysis indicates that the most significant differences between the simulated charge structures of the clouds produced in each particular model are the result of different distributions of model cloud characteristics and of the type of parameterisation of the microphysical processes. The study reveals that it is too early to make any conclusion regarding which, if any, of the existing parameterisation schemes are better suited to the realistic simulation of electrical charging in real clouds.  相似文献   

Halo masses for optically selected and for radio-loud AGN from clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing     

Rachel Mandelbaum †  Cheng Li  Guinevere Kauffmann  Simon D. M. White 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,393(2):377-392

We compute two-point correlation functions and measure the shear signal due to galaxy–galaxy lensing for 80 000 optically identified and 5700 radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGN) from Data Release 4 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Halo occupation models are used to estimate halo masses and satellite fractions for these two types of AGN. The large sample size allows us to separate AGN according to the stellar mass of their host galaxies. We study how the halo masses of optical and radio AGN differ from those of the parent population at fixed   M _*  . Halo masses deduced from clustering and from lensing agree satisfactorily. Radio AGN are found in more massive haloes than optical AGN: in our samples, their mean halo masses are  1.6 × 10¹³  and  8 × 10¹¹  h ⁻¹ M_⊙  , respectively. Optical AGN follow the same relation between stellar mass and halo mass as galaxies selected without regard to nuclear properties, but radio-loud AGN deviate significantly from this relation. The dark matter haloes of radio-loud AGN are about twice as massive as those of control galaxies of the same stellar mass. This boost is independent of radio luminosity, and persists even when our analysis is restricted to field galaxies. The large-scale gaseous environment of the galaxy clearly plays a crucial role in producing observable radio emission. The dark matter halo masses that we derive for the AGN in our two samples are in good agreement with recent models in which feedback from radio AGN becomes dominant in haloes where gas cools quasi-statically.  相似文献   

The rise and fall of galaxy activity in dark matter haloes     

Anna Pasquali  Frank C. van den Bosch  H. J. Mo  Xiaohu Yang  Rachel Somerville 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,394(1):38-50

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Vulnerable groups and preliminary insights into intersecting categories of identity in Laamu Atoll,Maldives     

Karen E. McNamara  Rachel Clissold 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2019,40(3):410-428

The notion of vulnerability has acquired a significant role in discussions around reducing risk and identifying vulnerable groups, which is particularly important for targeting risk‐reducing policy and practice. Through ten semi‐structured interviews with 24 stakeholders, this study collected local perceptions on the following groups considered most vulnerable in Laamu Atoll, Maldives: youth and children, women, the elderly, people with disabilities, displaced persons and migrants, and farmers. In doing this, the significance of intersecting categories of identity for understanding vulnerability emerged and was explored; an approach that is often absent or scarcely applied in studies that identify vulnerable groups in the Maldives and elsewhere. Intersections between location, youth and gender or disability, as well as gender and marital status emerged as relevant for the Laamu Atoll context. Although this study acknowledges the incompleteness of its intersectional analysis, these findings provide important preliminary insights into the role of intersectionality in shaping vulnerability experience. To enhance scholarship on vulnerability, future studies could further explore intersectionality in Laamu Atoll and the Maldives using this study as a base and also improve its practical applicability for policy and practice.  相似文献   

Modification of a Parametrization of Shallow Convection in the Grey Zone Using a Mesoscale Model     

Dávid Lancz  Balázs Szintai  Rachel Honnert 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2018,169(3):483-503

In current operational numerical weather prediction models, the effect of shallow convection is parametrized. The grey zone of shallow convection is found between the horizontal resolutions of mesoscale numerical models (2–3 km) and large-eddy simulations (10–100 m or finer). At these horizontal scales the shallow convection is to some extent explicitly resolved by the model. The shallow-convection parametrization is still needed, but has to be regulated according to the model horizontal resolution. Here the behaviour of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale numerical weather prediction model Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale is examined in the grey zone and a new scale-adaptive surface closure of its shallow-convection parametrization, dependent on horizontal resolution, is defined based on large-eddy simulation. The new closure is tested on a series of numerical experiments and validated on a 15-day-long real case period. Its impact on the development of deep convection is examined in detail. The idealized simulations show promising results, as the mean profiles of the subgrid and resolved turbulence change in the desired way. Based on the real case tests our modification has a low impact on model performance, but is part of a set of upgrades of the current parametrization that is aimed to treat the shallow convection grey zone.  相似文献   

Facies and sequence stratigraphic architecture of the Mural Limestone (Albian), Arizona: Carbonate response to global and local factors and implications for reservoir characterization     

Rachel Aisner-Williams  Charles Kerans 《Sedimentology》2020,67(7):3735-3768

This study documents the detailed facies and sequence stratigraphic architecture of a multi-cyclic patch-reef and its associated ramp interior facies that formed during Oceanic Anoxic Event 1b in the Mural Limestone, Arizona, USA. Ramp interior facies are comprised of bedded wackestone/packstone, rudist build-up and coral–algal patch-reef facies located north of Bisbee, Arizona, at the Grassy Hill locality. The larger multi-cyclic patch-reef that developed coevally ca 5 km to the south of Grassy Hill consists of a high-angle windward margin with a narrow ca 70 m long reef frame containing vertically zonated Microsolena, Actinastrea, diverse branching coral and rudist assemblages, and an 870 m long low-angle leeward margin comprised of reef debris rudstone and grainstone shoal facies. Similar reef geomorphology and orientation is documented across the Gulf of Mexico and reflects the shelf-wide north to north-east-trending prevailing wind and current energies. Controls affecting reef formation and growth patterns include changes in accommodation space associated with low-amplitude global sea-level rise and regional thermotectonic subsidence, local accommodation space and nutrient fluctuations associated with the inner shelf depositional setting within a humid and siliciclastic-rich environment. Four aggradational to retrogradational high-frequency sequences are documented in Arizona: High-frequency sequences 1 and 2 represent the first pulse of patch-reef development in an overall second-order marine transgression over the Sonora/Bisbee Shelf. These sequences correlate to δ¹³C signatures associated with Oceanic Anoxic Event 1b across the Gulf of Mexico and suggest that carbonate reefs persisted on the ramp interior during this time. High-frequency sequences 3 and 4 record a second brief transgression and backstepping of reef facies followed by the final regression of shallow shelf carbonates that correlates to more robust patch-reef development in Sonora, Mexico. The patch-reef at Paul Spur is an excellent outcrop analogue for productive patch-reefs in the Maverick Basin (Comanche Shelf) of Texas. Detailed facies mapping of this outcrop analogue shows that the greatest reservoir potential is contained within the backreef grainstone shoals where primary porosity of up to 15% is observed.  相似文献   

Use of terrestrial photogrammetry for monitoring and measuring bank erosion     

Rachel Barker  Lawrence Dixon  Janet Hooke 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1997,22(13):1217-1227

This paper examines the use of terrestrial photogrammetry as a technique for measuring bank erosion in a rapidly changing fluvial environment. It has been recognized that there are a number of advantages when applying photogrammetric techniques to geomorphological situations. In this study the enhancement of spatial sampling combined with the ability to capture additional information, such as soil moisture, on film, is of particular importance in enabling the identification of specific processes involved in bank erosion as well as detailed volumetric analysis of losses. Metric terrestrial photography was taken of the river bank on several dates, and data were abstracted by the use of analytical photogrammetry. This enabled the generation of digital terrain models from which morphological and volumetric changes could be assessed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

How ready is ready? Measuring physical preparedness for severe storms     

Ryan  Barbara  King  Rachel 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(1):171-199

This paper investigates use of inventories, or checklists of activities, as an emergency management tool to motivate preparedness action in individuals. It develops the inventory concept to provide the foundation for a more targeted approach to storm preparation communication and community engagement. It also examines the potential efficacy of alternatives to paper-based checklists, such as web or smartphone applications. Academic and grey literature was reviewed to collect activities for a storm inventory for emergency agencies to measure individual preparedness and for individuals to measure their preparation progress. The resulting master list was refined for application and tested for useability in a pilot study of semi-structured interviews in a storm-susceptible community in Queensland, Australia. Also, clustering items by type of preparedness activity reveal where strengths and weaknesses exist in individual preparedness. For instance, preparation for leaving and safety planning were shown to be the areas of weakest activity in the pilot sample, while preparation of the house for a storm was the strongest area. In addition, behaviour change literature shows potential for effective use of an inventory-based smartphone application in motivating preparation activity. Data collected by a storm preparedness smartphone application could show where a communication or engagement program for targeted communities should be focused. It is supported by health literature that identifies preferences of individuals to make progress on complex tasks in stages, the value of lists to achievement of goals and demonstrated increase in uptake of activities prompted by smartphone applications over web or paper-based diaries.

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Instrumentation Development for In Situ 40Ar/39Ar Planetary Geochronology          下载免费PDF全文

Leah E. Morgan  Madicken Munk  Brett Davidheiser‐Kroll  Nicholas H. Warner  Sanjeev Gupta  Rachel Slaybaugh  Patrick Harkness  Darren F. Mark 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2017,41(3):381-396

The chronology of the Solar System, particularly the timing of formation of extra‐terrestrial bodies and their features, is an outstanding problem in planetary science. Although various chronological methods for in situ geochronology have been proposed (e.g., Rb‐Sr, K‐Ar), and even applied (K‐Ar), the reliability, accuracy, and applicability of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method makes it by far the most desirable chronometer for dating extra‐terrestrial bodies. The method however relies on the neutron irradiation of samples, and thus a neutron source. Herein, we discuss the challenges and feasibility of deploying a passive neutron source to planetary surfaces for the in situ application of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar chronometer. Requirements in generating and shielding neutrons, as well as analysing samples are described, along with an exploration of limitations such as mass, power and cost. Two potential solutions for the in situ extra‐terrestrial deployment of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method are presented. Although this represents a challenging task, developing the technology to apply the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method on planetary surfaces would represent a major advance towards constraining the timescale of solar system formation and evolution.  相似文献