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Abstract

The effects of outliers on linear regression are examined. The sensitivity of classical least‐squares (LS) procedures to outliers is shown to be associated with the geometric inconsistency between the data space and the analysis space. This is illustrated for both estimation and inference. A geometrically consistent procedure based on the Euclidean distance is proposed. This procedure involves the least absolute deviation (LAD) regression and a new permutation test for matched pairs (PTMP). Comparisons made with LS techniques demonstrate that the proposed procedure is more resistant to the existence of outliers in the data set and leads to more intuitive results. Applications and illustrations using meteorological and climatological data are also discussed.  相似文献   
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A mathematical model has been developed to represent the physical phenomena that occur during the desiccation and one-dimensional consolidation of successive layers of hydraulically transported sediments as they are periodically deposited in a containment area. The governing boundary value problem, defined in terms of pore water pressures, consists of two field equations (one for the saturated domain and one for the unsaturated domain), a drainage boundary condition, an evapotranspiration boundary condition and a series of continuity conditions at the interfaces between different layers. A number of simplifying assumptions were made to render the field equations tractable, and a step-by-step numerical procedure was used to solve the linearized boundary value problem; at the end of each step, the errors introduced by the simplifying assumptions were corrected. Based on a thorough study of the convergence and stability conditions associated with the numerical approximation employed, a system of automatic corrections was incorporated into the computer program to reduce the time increment if stability problems originate during the solution. Based on the results of a parameter study, it was found that, although drainage conditions at the bottom of the, layer do exert some influence on the consolidation rate during deposition of the dredgings, the evapotranspiration potential renders this effect almost negligible when desiccation takes place at the surface. In contrast, transpiration plays an important, role on the consolidation rate during the early stages of desiccation, but its effect is reduced considerably as the water table approaches an equilibrium position.  相似文献   
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Pollen analysis of sediments from a high-altitude (4215 m), Neotropical (9°N) Andean lake was conducted in order to reconstruct local and regional vegetation dynamics since deglaciation. Although deglaciation commenced 15,500 cal yr B.P., the area around the Laguna Verde Alta (LVA) remained a periglacial desert, practically unvegetated, until about 11,000 cal yr B.P. At this time, a lycopod assemblage bearing no modern analog colonized the superpáramo. Although this community persisted until 6000 cal yr B.P., it began to decline somewhat earlier, in synchrony with cooling following the Holocene thermal maximum of the Northern Hemisphere. At this time, the pioneer assemblage was replaced by a low-diversity superpáramo community that became established 9000 cal yr B.P. This replacement coincides with regional declines in temperature and/or available moisture. Modern, more diverse superpáramo assemblages were not established until 4600 cal yr B.P., and were accompanied by a dramatic decline in Alnus, probably the result of factors associated with climate, humans, or both. Pollen influx from upper Andean forests is remarkably higher than expected during the Late Glacial and early to middle Holocene, especially between 14,000 and 12,600 cal yr B.P., when unparalleled high values are recorded. We propose that intensification of upslope orographic winds transported lower elevation forest pollen to the superpáramo, causing the apparent increase in tree pollen at high altitude. The association between increased forest pollen and summer insolation at this time suggests a causal link; however, further work is needed to clarify this relationship.  相似文献   
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Previous interdisciplinary paleoenvironmental and archaeological research along the Río Verde Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico, showed that Holocene erosion in the highland valleys of the upper drainage basin triggered geomorphic changes in the river's coastal floodplain. This article uses stratigraphic data from sediment cores extracted from Laguna Pastoría, an estuary in the lower Río Verde Valley, to examine changes in coastal geomorphology potentially triggered by highland erosion. Coastal lagoon sediments contain a stratigraphically and chronologically distinct record of major hurricane strikes during late Holocene times. Three distinct storm facies are identified from sediment cores obtained from Laguna Pastoría, which indicate that profound coastal environmental changes occurred within the region and are correlated with increased sediment supplied from highland erosion. The Chione/Laevicardium facies was deposited in an open bay while the Mytella/barnacle facies and sand facies were deposited in an enclosed lagoon following bay barrier formation. We argue that highland erosion triggered major geomorphic changes in the lowlands including bay barrier formation by 2500 cal yr B.P. These environmental changes may have had significant effects on human populations in the region. The lagoon stratigraphy further indicates an increase in mid–late Holocene hurricane activity, possibly caused by increased El Niño frequencies.  相似文献   
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A series of calculated thermal histories of Mars is presented, and their possible relation to surface tectonic history is discussed. The models include convective heat transport through an empirical approximation, and heating by radioactivity and core segregation. Initial temperature, Ti, and the timing and duration of core segregation are treated as free parameters. Ti is the main determinant of Martian thermal evolution: as it is varied from 20 to 100% of the present mean temperature, the maximum in surface heat flux moves from very recent to very early in Martian history. For the latter cases, the details of core segregation control the detailed timing of a peak in the thermal flux that exceeded 100 mW/m2. It is suggested that the early disruption of cratered terrain crust in the northern hemisphere and subsequent volcanic resurfacing may have been related to core segregation. This would be consistent with a scenario in which an early period of core segregation generated a marked peak in the thermal flux that may have lead to extensivev partial melting and volcanism. This scenario would require Mars to have had an initial mean temperature comparable to the present value.  相似文献   
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A two-dimensional numerical model with coupled photochemistry and dynamics has been used to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere (16–116 km) to changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle. Model inputs that vary with solar cycle include solar radiation, cosmic ray and auroral ionization rates and the flux of NOx at the model's upper boundary.In this study, the results of model runs for solar cycle minimum and maximum conditions are compared. In the stratosphere, using currently accepted estimates of changes in solar radiation at wavelengths longer than 180 nm, only small responses in ozone, temperature and zonal winds are obtained. On the other hand, changes at shorter wavelengths, and the effects of particle precipitation, lead to large variations in the abundances of trace species in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere. In particular, very large abundances of NOx are produced above 90 km by auroral particle precipitation. Considerable amounts of NOx are transported subsequently to the stratosphere by the global mean meridional circulation. It is shown that this excess NOx can lead to significant decreases in ozone concentrations at high latitudes and that it may explain observations of nitrate deposition in Antarctic snow.  相似文献   
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