Search for long term variations of the interplanetary magnetic field     

F. Mariani  L. Diodato  G. Moreno 《Solar physics》1975,45(1):241-254

A statistical study is made of the long term variations of the interplanetary magnetic field parameters collected in the years 1964 to 1973 by 12 spacecraft (IMP's, Pioneers and HEOS). Although temporal fluctuations are observed on field components and magnitudes no clear solar cycle variation is found. The same conclusion holds for the statistical distributions and variances of these parameters. A search for possible heliographic latitude effects on the field also leads to a negative conclusion.  相似文献   

Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project     

Bas Amelung  Alvaro Moreno 《Climatic change》2012,112(1):83-100

Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights and a climate-related index of human comfort, after accounting for other determinants of bed nights such as income and prices. It is concluded that climate change could have significant impacts on the regional distribution of the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. For example, in summer, Southern Europe could experience climate conditions that are less favourable to tourism than the current climate, while countries in the North could enjoy better conditions. The economic effects of these changes are likely to be sizeable, albeit difficult to assess. Crucially, they are shown to depend on tourists’ temporal flexibility with respect to holiday planning. The greater the prominence of institutional rigidities such as school holidays, the larger the differences between winning and losing regions in terms of economic impact.  相似文献   

Comparison Between Large-Eddy Simulation and Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes Computations for the MUST Field Experiment. Part II: Effects of Incident Wind Angle Deviation on the Mean Flow and Plume Dispersion     

A. Dejoan  J. L. Santiago  A. Martilli  F. Martin  A. Pinelli 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2010,135(1):133-150

Large-eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) computations of pollutant dispersion are reported for the Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) field experiment flow. In particular we address the effects of incident wind angle deviation on the mean velocity and on the mean concentration fields. Both computational fluid dynamical methods are assessed by comparing the simulation results with experimental field data. The comparative analysis proposes to relate the plume deflection with the flow channelling effects. The results show that the plume deflection angle varies with the altitude. As the ground is approached the plume is shown to be almost aligned with the street canyon direction and independent of the incident wind directions considered. At higher altitudes well above the obstacles, the plume direction is aligned with the mean wind direction as in dispersion over flat terrain. The near-ground plume deflection is the consequence of a strong channelling effect in the region near the ground. The mean concentration profiles predicted by LES and RANS are both in good qualitative agreement with experimental data but exhibit discrepancies that can be partly explained by the influence of small incident wind angle deviation effects. Compared to RANS, LES predicts a higher channelling and thus a higher deflection of the plume. Results on the fluctuating intensity of the concentration obtained from LES show a satisfactory agreement with experiments. This information is not available from RANS for which only the mean concentration modelling is considered.  相似文献   

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jose A. Marengo  Tercio Ambrizzi  Rosmeri P. da Rocha  Lincoln M. Alves  Santiago V. Cuadra  Maria C. Valverde  Roger R. Torres  Daniel C. Santos  Simone E. T. Ferraz 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(6):1073-1097

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.  相似文献   

Wind measurements in Mars' middle atmosphere: IRAM Plateau de Bure interferometric CO observations     

R. Moreno  E. Lellouch  T. Encrenaz  E. Millour 《Icarus》2009,201(2):549-563

The IRAM Plateau de Bure Interferometer has been used to map the CO(1-0) rotational line in Mars' middle atmosphere. Absolute winds and thermal profiles were retrieved during the 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 planet's oppositions. The observations sampled various seasons (Ls=143, 196, 262, 317 and 322), and different dust situations (clear, global storm, regional storm). The absolute winds were derived by measuring directly the Doppler lineshifts. The main zonal circulation near 50 km is dominated by strong retrograde winds, with typical velocities of 70-170 m/s, strongly varying seasonally, latitudinally, and longitudinally (in particular between morning and evening). Comparison of the retrieved temperature with a general circulation model indicates that the model often underestimates the temperatures in the middle (20-50 km) atmosphere, and overestimates them above 50 km.  相似文献   

TNOs are Cool: A Survey of the Transneptunian Region     

Thomas G. Müller  Emmanuel Lellouch  Hermann Böhnhardt  John Stansberry  Antonella Barucci  Jacques Crovisier  Audrey Delsanti  Alain Doressoundiram  Elisabetta Dotto  René Duffard  Sonia Fornasier  Olivier Groussin  Pedro J. Gutiérrez  Olivier Hainaut  Alan W. Harris  Paul Hartogh  Daniel Hestroffer  Jonathan Horner  Dave Jewitt  Mark Kidger  Csaba Kiss  Pedro Lacerda  Luisa Lara  Tanya Lim  Michael Mueller  Raphael Moreno  Jose-Luis Ortiz  Miriam Rengel  Pablo Santos-Sanz  Bruce Swinyard  Nicolas Thomas  Audrey Thirouin  David Trilling 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2009,105(2-4):209-219

Over one thousand objects have so far been discovered orbiting beyond Neptune. These trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) represent the primitive remnants of the planetesimal disk from which the planets formed and are perhaps analogous to the unseen dust parent-bodies in debris disks observed around other main-sequence stars. The dynamical and physical properties of these bodies provide unique and important constraints on formation and evolution models of the Solar System. While the dynamical architecture in this region (also known as the Kuiper Belt) is becoming relatively clear, the physical properties of the objects are still largely unexplored. In particular, fundamental parameters such as size, albedo, density and thermal properties are difficult to measure. Measurements of thermal emission, which peaks at far-IR wavelengths, offer the best means available to determine the physical properties. While Spitzer has provided some results, notably revealing a large albedo diversity in this population, the increased sensitivity of Herschel and its superior wavelength coverage should permit profound advances in the field. Within our accepted project we propose to perform radiometric measurements of 139 objects, including 25 known multiple systems. When combined with measurements of the dust population beyond Neptune (e.g. from the New Horizons mission to Pluto), our results will provide a benchmark for understanding the Solar debris disk, and extra-solar ones as well.  相似文献   

Large Dust Grains Around Cometary Nuclei     

A. Molina  F. Moreno  F. J. Jiménez-Fernández 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2008,102(1-4):521-524

Large amounts of particles ejected from the nucleus surface are present in the vicinity of the cometary nuclei when comets are near the Sun (at heliocentric distances ≤2 AU). The largest dust grains ejected may constitute a hazard for spatial vehicles. We tried to obtain the bounded orbits of those particles and to investigate their stability along several orbital periods. The model includes the solar and the cometary gravitational forces and the solar radiation pressure force. The nucleus is assumed to be spherical. The dust grains are also assumed to be spherical, and radially ejected. We include the effects of centrifugal forces owing to the comet rotation. An expression for the most heavy particles that can be lifted is proposed. Using the usual values adopted for the case of Halley’s comet, the largest grains that can be lifted have a diameter about 5 cm, and the term due to the rotation is negligible. However, that term increases the obtained value for the maximum diameter of the lifted grain in a significant amount when the rotation period is of the order of a few hours.  相似文献   

On the consistency of the current conventional EOP series and the celestial and terrestrial reference frames     

Santiago Belda  Robert Heinkelmann  José M. Ferrándiz  Tobias Nilsson  Harald Schuh 《Journal of Geodesy》2017,91(2):135-149

Precise transformation between the celestial reference frames (CRF) and terrestrial reference frames (TRF) is needed for many purposes in Earth and space sciences. According to the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) recommendations, the accuracy of positions and stability of reference frames should reach 1 mm and 0.1 mm year\(^{-1}\), and thus, the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) should be estimated with similar accuracy. Different realizations of TRFs, based on the combination of solutions from four different space geodetic techniques, and CRFs, based on a single technique only (VLBI, Very Long Baseline Interferometry), might cause a slow degradation of the consistency among EOP, CRFs, and TRFs (e.g., because of differences in geometry, orientation and scale) and a misalignment of the current conventional EOP series, IERS 08 C04. We empirically assess the consistency among the conventional reference frames and EOP by analyzing the record of VLBI sessions since 1990 with varied settings to reflect the impact of changing frames or other processing strategies on the EOP estimates. Our tests show that the EOP estimates are insensitive to CRF changes, but sensitive to TRF variations and unmodeled geophysical signals at the GGOS level. The differences between the conventional IERS 08 C04 and other EOP series computed with distinct TRF settings exhibit biases and even non-negligible trends in the cases where no differential rotations should appear, e.g., a drift of about 20 \(\upmu \)as year\(^{-1 }\)in \(y_{\mathrm{pol }}\) when the VLBI-only frame VTRF2008 is used. Likewise, different strategies on station position modeling originate scatters larger than 150 \(\upmu \)as in the terrestrial pole coordinates.  相似文献   

Geomorphology, Stratigraphy, and Radiocarbon Chronology of LlanquihueDrift in the Area of the Southern Lake District, Seno Reloncaví, and Isla Grande de Chiloé, Chile     

G.H. Denton  T.V. Lowell  C.J. Heusser  C. Schlüchter  B.G. Andersen  Linda E. Heusser  P.I. Moreno  & D.R. Marchant 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》1999,81(2):167-229

Glacial geomorphologic features composed of (or cut into) Llanquihue drift delineate former Andean piedmont glaciers in the region of the southern Chilean Lake District, Seno Reloncav', Golfo de Ancud, and northern Golfo Corcovado during the last glaciation. These landforms include extensive moraine belts, main and subsidiary outwash plains, kame terraces, and meltwater spillways. Numerous radiocarbon dates document Andean ice advances into the moraine belts during the last glacial maximum (LGM) at 29,363–29,385 ¹⁴C yr BP , 26,797 ¹⁴C yr BP , 22,295–22,570 ¹⁴C yr BP , and 14,805–14,869 ¹⁴C yr BP . Advances may also have culminated at close to 21,000 ¹⁴C yr BP , shortly before 17,800 ¹⁴C yr BP , and shortly before 15,730 ¹⁴C yr BP . The maximum at 22,295–22,567 ¹⁴C yr BP was probably the most extensive of the LGM in the northern part of the field area, whereas that at 14,805–14,869 ¹⁴C yr BP was the most extensive in the southern part. Snowline depression during these maxima was about 1000 m. Andean piedmont glaciers did not advance into the outer Llanquihue moraine belts during the portion of middle Llanquihue time between 29,385 ¹⁴C yr BP and more than 39,660 ¹⁴C yr BP . In the southern part of the field area, the Golfo de Ancud lobe, as well as the Golfo Corcovado lobe, achieved a maximum at the outermost Llanquihue moraine prior to 49,892 ¹⁴C yr BP . Pollen analysis of the Taiquemmire, which is located on this moraine, suggests that the old Llanquihue advance probably corresponds to the time of marine isotope stage 4. The implication is that the Andean snowline was then depressed as much as during the LGM. A Llanquihue-age glacier expansion into the outer moraine belts also occurred more than about 40,000 ¹⁴C yr BP for the Lago Llanquihue piedmont glacier.  相似文献   

Interhemispheric Linkage of Paleoclimate During the Last Glaciation   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

G.H. Denton  C. J. Heusser  T.V. Lowel  P.I. Moreno  B.G. Andersen  Linda E. Heusser  C. Schlühter  & D.R. Marchant 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》1999,81(2):107-153

Combined glacial geologic and palynologic data from the southern Lake District, Seno Reloncaví, and Isla Grande de Chiloé in middle latitudes (40°35’–42°25’S) of the Southern Hemisphere Andes suggest (1) that full-glacial or near-full-glacial climate conditions persisted from about 29,400 to 14,550 ¹⁴C yr BP in late Llanquihue time, (2) that within this late Llanquihue interval mean summer temperature was depressed 6°–8°C compared to modern values during major glacier advances into the outer moraine belt at 29,400, 26,760, 22,295–22,570, and 14,550–14,805 ¹⁴C yr BP , (3) that summer temperature depression was as great during early Llanquihue as during late Llanquihue time, (4) that climate deteriorated from warmer conditions during the early part to colder conditions during the later part of middle Llanquihue time, (5) that superimposed on long-term climate deterioration are Gramineae peaks on Isla Grande de Chiloé that represent cooling at 44,520–47,110 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-11), 32,105–35,764 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-9), 24,895–26,019 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-7), 21,430–22,774 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-5), and 13,040–15,200 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-3), (6) that the initial phase of the glacial/interglacial transition of the last termination involved at least two major steps, one beginning at 14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP and another at 12,700–13,000 ¹⁴ C yr BP , and (7) that a late-glacial climate reversal of ≥2–3° C set in close to 12,200 ¹⁴C yr BP , after an interval of near-interglacial warmth, and continued into Younger Dryas time. The late-glacial climate signal from the southern Chilean Lake District ties into that from proglacial Lago Mascardi in the nearby Argentine Andes, which shows rapid ice recession peaking at 12,400 ¹⁴C yr BP , followed by a reversal of trend that culminated in Younger-Dryas-age glacier readvance at 11,400–10,200 ¹⁴C yr BP . Many full- and late-glacial climate shifts in the southern Lake District match those from New Zealand at nearly the same Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes. At the last glacial maximum (LGM), snowline lowering relative to present-day values was nearly the same in the Southern Alps (875 m) and the Chilean Andes (1000 m). Particularly noteworthy are the new Younger-Dryas-age exposure dates of the Lake Misery moraines in Arthur's Pass in the Southern Alps. Moreover, pollen records from the Waikato lowlands on North Island show that a major vegetation shift at close to 14,700 ¹⁴C yr BP marked the beginning of the last glacial/interglacial transition (Newnham et al. 1989). The synchronous and nearly uniform lowering of snowlines in Southern Hemisphere middle-latitude mountains compared with Northern Hemisphere values suggests global cooling of about the same magnitude in both hemispheres at the LGM. When compared with paleoclimate records from the North Atlantic region, the middle-latitude Southern Hemisphere terrestrial data imply interhemispheric symmetry of the structure and timing of the last glacial/interglacial transition. In both regions atmospheric warming pulses are implicated near the beginning of Oldest Dryas time (～14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP) and near the Oldest Dryas/Bölling transition (～12,700–13,000 ¹⁴ C yr BP ). The second of these warming pulses was coincident with resumption of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation similar to that of the modern mode, with strong formation of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water in the Nordic Seas. In both regions, the maximum Bölling-age warmth was achieved at 12,200–12,500 ¹⁴ C yr BP , and was followed by a reversal in climate trend. In the North Atlantic region, and possibly in middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, this reversal culminated in a Younger-Dryas-age cold pulse. Although changes in ocean circulation can redistribute heat between the hemispheres, they cannot alone account either for the synchronous planetary cooling of the LGM or for the synchronous interhemispheric warming steps of the abrupt glacial-to-interglacial transition. Instead, the dominant interhemispheric climate linkage must feature a global atmospheric signal. The most likely source of this signal is a change in the greenhouse content of the atmosphere. We speculate that the Oldest Dryas warming pulse originated from an increase in atmospheric water-vapor production by half-precession forcing in the tropics. The major thermohaline switch near the Oldest Dryas/Bölling transition then couldhave triggered another increase in tropical water-vapor production to near-interglacial values.  相似文献