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22.
In Otjimbingwe, a region of arid south-central Namibia, human population densities are high and these communal pastoralists own large numbers of livestock. Such situations are commonly perceived to lead to the ‘tragedy of the commons'. This region lends itself to a comparison of the effects of communal and commercial farming (with private land ownership) because the communal area is completely surrounded by commercial farms. In spite of far higher stocking densities on the communal areas and the absence of an overall grazing strategy, we found no evidence of the ‘tragedy of the commons' on Otjimbingwe. Indeed, the communal areas did not differ in a number of soil and vegetation parameters from the commercial farms. These results point both to the resilience of arid environments to high stocking levels and the over-riding influence of abiotic variables on environmental quality.  相似文献   
23.
Integration of remote sensing data with other spatial/non-spatial data was carried out using ARC/INFO software package. A simple classification technique was adopted for land cover/land-use change analyses in relation to elevation, slope, aspect and bio-climatic classes. Suitability assessment of land where agricultural extension occurred between 1963 and 1993 was made using GIS software package. Expansion of agriculture and was found to be maximum in 2200-2400 m elevation zone and 20–30° slope classes. When topographic aspects were considered expansion was maximum on south east and west facing slopes. The loss of vegetal cover is estimated to be 15 per cent between 1963–1993. However regeneration of forest was found to be maximum in elevation ranges of 1600–2000 metre and mostly having 20–30° average slope, Land deterioration over the two mapping periods was identified and strategies were suggested to mitigate the problem.  相似文献   
24.
The bearing capacity of interfering footings located near the slope face suffers from reduced bearing capacity due to the formation of the curtailed passive zone. Depending upon the position of the footing, their spacing and steepness of the slope, different extents of bearing capacity reduction can be exhibited. A series of finite element investigation has been done with the aid of Plaxis 3D vAE.01 to elucidate the influence of various geotechnical and geometrical parameters on the ultimate bearing capacity of interfering surface strip footings located at the crest of the natural soil slope. Based on the large database obtained from the numerical simulation, a 6-8-1 Artificial Neural Network architecture has been considered for the assessment of the ultimate bearing capacity of interfering strip footings placed on the crest of natural soil slope. Sensitivity analyses have been conducted to establish the relative significance of the contributory parameters, which exhibited that for the stated problem, apart from shear strength parameters, the setback ratio and spacing of footing are the prime contributory parameters.  相似文献   
25.
In this study, numerical prediction of surges associated with a storm was made through the method of lines (MOL) in coordination with the newly proposed RKARMS (4, 4) method for the meghna estuarine region, along the coast of Bangladesh. For this purpose, the vertically integrated shallow water equations (SWEs) in Cartesian coordinates were firstly transformed into ordinary differential equations (ODEs) of initial valued, which were then soloved using the new RKARMS (4, 4) method. Nested grid technique was employed for resolving the complexities of the region of interest with minimum cost. Fresh water discharge through the lower Meghna River was taken into account along the north east corner of the innermost child scheme. Numerical experiments were performed with the severe cyclone on April 1991 that crossed the coast over the study area. Simulated results by the study were found to be in good agreement with some reported data and were found to compare well with the results obtained by the MOL in addition with the classical 4th order Runge-Kutta (RK (4, 4)) method and the standard finite difference method (FDM).  相似文献   
26.
Forest fires are considered one of the most highly damaging and devastating of natural disasters, causing considerable casualties and financial losses every year. Hence, it is important to produce susceptibility maps for the management of forest fires so as to reduce their harmful effects. The purpose of this study is to map the susceptibility to forest fires over Nowshahr County in Iran, using an integrated approach of index of entropy (IOE) with fuzzy membership value (FMV), frequency ratio (FR), and information value (IV) with a comparison of their precision. The spatial database incorporated the inventory of forest fire and conditioning factors. As a whole, 41 forest fire locations were identified. Out of these, 29 locations (≈70%) were randomly chosen for the forest fire susceptibility modeling (FFSM), and the remaining 12 locations (≈30%) were utilized for the validation of the models. Subsequently, utilizing FMV‐IOE, FR‐IOE, and IV‐IOE models, forest fire susceptibility maps were acquired. Finally, the modeling ability of the models for FFSM was assessed using an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. The results manifested that the prediction accuracy of the FMV‐IOE model is slightly higher than that of the FR‐IOE and IV‐IOE models. The incorporation of IOE with FMV, FR, and IV models had AUROC values of 0.890, 0.887, and 0.878, respectively. The resulting FFSM can be effective in fire repression resource planning, sustainable development, and primary warning in regions with similar conditions.  相似文献   
27.
Rapid urbanization has resulted in the loss of coastal and marine habitats in cities worldwide. The effective conservation of urban coastal ecosystems requires detailed knowledge of their spatial distribution, necessitating high-resolution mapping. Our study produces a high-resolution coastal and marine habitat map and shoreline map for the tropical city-state of Singapore created through pixel-based supervised classification of satellite imagery, bathymetry data and expert ground knowledge. These maps can be used as a base reference for multiple applications including ecological research, conservation and urban planning. They also help identifiy trends in the extent of key coastal habitats, providing insight into their differing levels of vulnerability to loss and potential for restoration to ensure long-term resilience. The method used for mapping shoreline typologies and resulting insights gained, can guide other rapidly urbanizing coastal cities on strategies to assemble useful spatial knowledge for effective conservation of their urban coastal ecosystems.  相似文献   
28.
Our analyses partition the relative influence of progressive climate change and large-scale climate drivers that can be associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), solar sunspot cycle, and multi-decadal oscillations on lake ice breakup dates for thirteen Northern Hemisphere lakes. Oscillatory dynamics explain 26 % of the total variance in the time series compared with 15 % for linear trends, leaving 60 % unexplained and likely attributable, in part, to local weather. Significant oscillatory dynamics include frequencies in 2–3 year periods (9.4 % of the total variance), 3–6 year periods (8.2 %), 10–12 year periods (1.6 %) and various multidecadal periods (0.4–1.3 %). All 13 study lakes, although widely scattered in the Northern Hemisphere, had similar oscillatory dynamics and linear trends, emphasizing that global processes influence lake ice breakup locally. We illustrate that while quasi-periodic dynamics associated with large-scale climate drivers are important, they do not mask the clear evidence for progressive climate change.  相似文献   
29.
In this paper, we present an operational model to estimate the actual evapotranspiration (ET) of crops cultivated on hilly terrains. This new model has the following three characteristics: (1) ET modelling is based on a Penman?CMonteith (PM) type equation (Monteith 1965) where canopy resistance is simulated by following an approach already illustrated by Katerji and Perrier (Agronomie 3(6):513?C521, 1983); (2) the estimation of ET, by means of the PM equation, is made by using meteorological variables simulated on sloped sites as input; (3) these variables are simulated by using simple relationships linking the variables measured at a reference site on plane to the topographic characteristics of the site (slope, orientation, altitude as difference between reference, and sloped sites). This approach presents two advantages if compared with previously proposed models: Not only computation steps are greatly simplified but also error sources due to the simulation of climatic variables in sloped sites and the ET estimation are well distinguished. This model was validated at hourly and daily scales at four sites cultivated with wheat and oats offering a wide range of slope and orientation values: a reference site on plane, site 1 (9° sloping, NW orientation, 7 m from the reference site in plane), site 2 (6°, SE, 12 m) and site 3 (1°, SE, 18 m). At hourly scale, the new model performed well at all sites studied. The observed slope of the linear relationships between estimated and measured ET values ranged between 0.93 and 1.03, with coefficients of determination, r 2, between 0.80 and 0.98. At daily scale, the slopes of the linear relationships between measured and estimated ET for the sites on plane and the sloped sites were practically the same (0.98?±?0.01); however, the coefficient of determination r 2 observed in the site on plane was clearly greater (0.98) than that observed in the sloped sites (0.83). The presented analysis does not show any significant systematic effect of topography (slope and orientation of the plots) on the good performance of the proposed model for the ET estimation. Furthermore, we observed that coefficients of determination tend to decrease with the increase in the slope of the site, which translates into increased inaccuracy of the climatic variables simulation, in particular the net radiation, as the slope of the site increases. The proposed model allows to verify the different steps for calculating the fluxes, to identify the eventual sources of error and to make the needed corrections. For this reasons, the proposed model seems to be particularly ??operational??, i.e. a useful tool for estimating fluxes on hilly terrains.  相似文献   
30.
It is here shown that the stellar astration of deuterium in the solar neighbourhood of the Galactic Disc over 13 Gy corresponds to a factor of about 2 only in a closed model of chemical evolution.  相似文献   
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