Stage-structured matrix modeling and suggestions for management of atlantic horseshoe crab,Limulus polyphemus, populations on cape cod, massachusetts     

Sara P. Grady  Ivan Valiela 《Estuaries and Coasts》2006,29(4):685-698

The Atlantic horsehoe crab,Limulus polyphemus, is harvested by the biomedical industry for Limulus Amoebocyte Lysate (LAL) a blood compound used to detect endotoxins, for scientific research on vision, and as bait for the eel and conch fisheries. They are also subject to sources of natural mortality such as consumption of eggs by shorebirds and stranding. Recently there has been growing concern over possible declines inLimulus populations along the east coast of the United States. We have used stage-structured matrix modeling to improve our understanding ofLimulus population dynamics in three Cape Cod estuaries (Stage Harbor, Pleasant Bay, and Barnstable Harbor) with differing harvest pressures. The results suggest that a low level of harvest is sustainable, particularly if timing and size-specificity of the harvest are taken into consideration. The model also suggests that efforts should be made to avoid harvesting crabs prior to sexual maturity, as the population growth rate is more sensitive to changes in survival rate of older juveniles than of other stages. The information the model provides could assist local and regional fisheries managers in establishing appropriate regulations for the horseshoe crab fishery.  相似文献   

Potential role of passenger pigeons and other vertebrates in the rapid Holocene migrations of nut trees     

Sara L. Webb 《Quaternary Research》1986,26(3)

Rapid rates of species range extension during the Holocene represent seed dispersal distances of at least 6 to 8 km per generation for North American species of Fagus, Quercus, and Carya, taxa whose fruits are heavy nuts. Occasional seed dispersal by biotic seed predators is necessary for these dispersal distances. One likely agent for dispersal across long distances and habitat discontinuities was the extinct (since 1914 A.D.) passenger pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius). This bird's abundance, capacity for delayed digestion, and nomadic habits strongly suggest an occasional seed dispersal role, although a coevolutionary seed dispersal relationship cannot be inferred from available evidence. The capacity of some heavy seeds for dispersal distances greater than those of most light, wind-dispersed seeds has biogeographic and genetic implications.  相似文献   

Nonlinear seismic response analysis of earth dams   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sara J. Lacy  Jean H. Prevost 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1987,6(1)

The objective of this paper is to propose a general and efficient numerical procedure for analysing the dynamic response of geotechnical structures, which are considered as both nonlinear and two phase systems. In Section 2, the appropriate coupled dynamic field equations for the response of a two-phase soil system are briefly reviewed. The finite element spatial discretization of the field equations is described and time integration for the resulting nonlinear semi-discrete finite element equations is discussed. In Section 3, iterative techniques are examined for the solution of the global nonlinear system of finite element equations. A large amount of computational effort is expended in the iterative phase of the solution and so the iterative procedure used must be both reliable and efficient. The performance of three iterative procedure is examined: Newton Raphson, Modified Newton Raphson and Quasi-Newton methods, including BGFS and Broyden updates. Finally, in Section 4, the elasto-plastic earthquake response analysis of a two phase nonhomogeneous earth dam is presented. Extensive documentation exists¹ for the particular problem selected including recorded earthquake motions at the base and crest of the dam. The results of the numerical calculations are compared to the recorded response of the dam.  相似文献   

Backcasting long-term climate data: evaluation of hypothesis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bahram?SaghafianEmail author  Sara?Ghasemi?Aghbalaghi  Mohsen?Nasseri 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(3-4):717-726

Most often than not, incomplete datasets or short-term recorded data in vast regions impedes reliable climate and water studies. Various methods, such as simple correlation with stations having long-term time series, are practiced to infill or extend the period of observation at stations with missing or short-term data. In the current paper and for the first time, the hypothesis on the feasibility of extending the downscaling concept to backcast local observation records using large-scale atmospheric predictors is examined. Backcasting is coined here to contrast forecasting/projection; the former is implied to reconstruct in the past, while the latter represents projection in the future. To assess our hypotheses, daily and monthly statistical downscaling models were employed to reconstruct past precipitation data and lengthen the data period. Urmia and Tabriz synoptic stations, located in northwestern Iran, constituted two case study stations. SDSM and data-mining downscaling model (DMDM) daily as well as the group method of data handling (GMDH) and model tree (Mp5) monthly downscaling models were trained with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data. After training, reconstructed precipitation data of the past was validated against observed data. Then, the data was fully extended to the 1948 to 2009 period corresponding to available NCEP data period. The results showed that DMDM performed superior in generation of monthly average precipitation compared with the SDSM, Mp5, and GMDH models, although none of the models could preserve the monthly variance. This overall confirms practical value of the proposed approach in extension of the past historic data, particularly for long-term climatological and water budget studies.  相似文献   

Governance,enabling frameworks and policies for the transfer and diffusion of low carbon and climate adaptation technologies in developing countries     

James Haselip  Ulrich Elmer Hansen  Daniel Puig  Sara Trærup  Subash Dhar 《Climatic change》2015,131(3):363-370

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Explaining low yields and low food production in Cameroon: a farmers’ perspective     

Genesis Tambang Yengoh  Sara Brogaard 《GeoJournal》2014,79(3):279-295

While a bottom-up approach to identifying problems affecting food production among small-scale farmers has been urged as an appropriate means of finding sustainable solutions, few studies have determined the practical process of doing so and measured the outcomes of such an approach. This paper uses information gained mainly through focus groups with small-scale farmers and semi-structured interviews, to identify farmers’ perceptions of reasons behind low yields and low agricultural production in three communities of Cameroon’s North West region. Three biophysical factors are identified as the main reasons of low production: the long and more frequent dry spells and late start of the start of the rainy season. Three socio-economic reasons are identified as most important: land scarcity, money to invest in agriculture and labour scarcity. Farmers rank their reasons based on the importance to their agricultural production in their local area. Some of the important claims made by farmers are tested using field data and statistical analysis. These include the claims that: (1) the rainy season is increasingly starting later than it used to; and (2) the length of dry spells are increasingly longer than they used to be. The results of these statistical tests are significant, showing that farmers’ knowledge of some of the local problems affecting their activities can serve as an important input into formal research and policy design. Peoples’ understanding of a problem affects the way they will act on it—in terms of searching for solutions and implementing change. Farmers can therefore provide useful insights on why they think there are large yield gaps within their local production environments. The current agricultural development policy of the Cameroon government is advocating greater public–private engagement and can benefit from farmers’ inputs and opinions in the design of relevant policies. In the same light, nonlocal based researchers and research institutions can draw on farmers’ knowledge to create and accumulate knowledge on sustainable solutions to problems of low yields and low food production in Cameroon.  相似文献