Sensitivity analysis of a decision tree classification to input data errors using a general Monte Carlo error sensitivity model     

Zhi Huang §  Shawn W. Laffan 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(11):1433-1452

We analysed the sensitivity of a decision tree derived forest type mapping to simulated data errors in input digital elevation model (DEM), geology and remotely sensed (Landsat Thematic Mapper) variables. We used a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model coupled with a one‐at‐a‐time approach. The DEM error was assumed to be spatially autocorrelated with its magnitude being a percentage of the elevation value. The error of categorical geology data was assumed to be positional and limited to boundary areas. The Landsat data error was assumed to be spatially random following a Gaussian distribution. Each layer was perturbed using its error model with increasing levels of error, and the effect on the forest type mapping was assessed. The results of the three sensitivity analyses were markedly different, with the classification being most sensitive to the DEM error, than to the Landsat data errors, but with only a limited sensitivity to the geology data error used. A linear increase in error resulted in non‐linear increases in effect for the DEM and Landsat errors, while it was linear for geology. As an example, a DEM error of as small as ±2% reduced the overall test accuracy by more than 2%. More importantly, the same uncertainty level has caused nearly 10% of the study area to change its initial class assignment at each perturbation, on average. A spatial assessment of the sensitivities indicates that most of the pixel changes occurred within those forest classes expected to be more sensitive to data error. In addition to characterising the effect of errors on forest type mapping using decision trees, this study has demonstrated the generality of employing Monte Carlo analysis for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of categorical outputs that have distinctive characteristics from that of numerical outputs.  相似文献   

Reply to Jackson and Cross' Comment on “Exceptionally Long MTBE Plumes of the Past Have Greatly Diminished”          下载免费PDF全文

James M. McDade  John A. Connor  Shawn M. Paquette  Julia M. Small 《Ground water》2016,54(2):153-154

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Irrigation produces elevated arsenic in the underlying groundwater of a semi-arid basin in Southwestern Idaho     

Montague W. Busbee  Benjamin D. Kocar  Shawn G. Benner 《Applied Geochemistry》2009

The shallow aquifer beneath the Western Snake River Plain (Idaho, USA) exhibits widespread elevated arsenic concentrations (up to 120 μg L⁻¹). While semi-arid, crop irrigation has increased annual recharge to the aquifer from approximately 1 cm prior to a current rate of >50 cm year⁻¹. The highest aqueous arsenic concentrations are found in proximity to the water table (all values >50 μg L⁻¹ within 50 m) and concentrations decline with depth. Despite strong vertical redox stratification within the aquifer, spatial distribution of aqueous species indicates that redox processes are not primary drivers of arsenic mobilization. Arsenic release and transport occur under oxidizing conditions; groundwater wells containing dissolved arsenic at >50 μg L⁻¹ exhibit elevated concentrations of O₂ (average 4 mg L⁻¹) and NO₃ (average 8 mg L⁻¹) and low concentrations of dissolved Fe (<20 μg L⁻¹). Sequential extractions and spectroscopic analysis of surficial soils and sediments indicate solid phase arsenic is primarily arsenate and is present at elevated concentrations (4–45 mg kg⁻¹, average: 17 mg kg⁻¹) relative to global sedimentary abundances. The highest concentrations of easily mobilized arsenic (up to 7 mg kg⁻¹) are associated with surficial soils and sediments visibly stained with iron oxides. Batch leaching experiments on these materials using irrigation waters produce pore water arsenic concentrations approximating those observed in the shallow aquifer (up to 152 μg L⁻¹). While As:Cl aqueous phase relationships suggest minor evaporative enrichment, this appears to be a relic of the pre-irrigation environment. Collectively, these data indicate that infiltrating irrigation waters leach arsenic from surficial sediments to the underlying aquifer.  相似文献   

Calibration of subsurface batch and reactive-transport models involving complex biogeochemical processes     

L. Shawn Matott  Alan J. Rabideau 《Advances in water resources》2008

In this study, the calibration of subsurface batch and reactive-transport models involving complex biogeochemical processes was systematically evaluated. Two hypothetical nitrate biodegradation scenarios were developed and simulated in numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of three calibration search procedures: a multi-start non-linear regression algorithm (i.e. multi-start Levenberg–Marquardt), a global search heuristic (i.e. particle swarm optimization), and a hybrid algorithm that combines the particle swarm procedure with a regression-based “polishing” step. Graphical analysis of the selected calibration problems revealed heterogeneous regions of extreme parameter sensitivity and insensitivity along with abundant numbers of local minima. These characteristics hindered the performance of the multi-start non-linear regression technique, which was generally the least effective of the considered algorithms. In most cases, the global search and hybrid methods were capable of producing improved model fits at comparable computational expense. In other cases, the multi-start and hybrid calibration algorithms yielded comparable fitness values but markedly differing parameter estimates and associated uncertainty measures.  相似文献   

Life cycles of spots on Jupiter from Cassini images     

Liming Li  Andrew P. Ingersoll  Carolyn C. Porco  Shawn P. Ewald 《Icarus》2004,172(1):9-23

Using the sequence of 70-day continuum-band (751 nm) images from the Cassini Imaging Science System (ISS), we record over 500 compact oval spots and study their relation to the large-scale motions. The ∼100 spots whose vorticity could be measured—the large spots in most cases—were all anticyclonic. We exclude cyclonic features (chaotic regions) because they do not have a compact oval shape, but we do record their interactions with spots. We distinguish probable convective storms from other spots because they appear suddenly, grow rapidly, and are much brighter than their surroundings. The distribution of lifetimes for spots that appeared and disappeared during the 70-day period follows a decaying exponential with time constant (mean lifetime) of 3.5 days for probable convective storms and 16.8 days for all other spots. Extrapolating the exponential beyond 70 days seriously underestimates the number of spots that existed for the entire 70-day period. This and other evidences (size, shape, distribution in latitude) suggest that these long-lived spots with lifetime larger than 70 days are from a separate population. The zonal wind profile obtained manually by tracking individual features (this study) agrees with that obtained automatically by correlating brightness variations in narrow latitude bands (Porco et al., 2003). Some westward jets have developed more curvature and some have developed less curvature since Voyager times, but the number of westward jets that violate the barotropic stability criterion is about the same. In the northern hemisphere the number of spots is greatest at the latitudes of the westward jets, which are the most unstable regions according to the barotropic stability criterion. During the 70-day observation period the Great Red Spot (GRS) absorbed nine westward-moving spots that originated in the South Equatorial Belt (SEB), where most of the probable convective storms originate. Although the probable convective storms do not directly transform themselves into westward-moving spots, their common origin in the SEB suggests that moist convection and the westward jet compose a system that has maintained the GRS over its long lifetime.  相似文献   

Early presence of Bythotrephes cederströmii (Cladocera: Cercopagidae) in lake sediments in North America: evidence or artifact?     

DeWeese  Nichole E.  Favot  Elizabeth J.  Branstrator  Donn K.  Reavie  Euan D.  Smol  John P.  Engstrom  Daniel R.  Rantala  Heidi M.  Schottler  Shawn P.  Paterson  Andrew M. 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2021,66(4):389-405

Journal of Paleolimnology - The spiny water flea (Bythotrephes cederströmii), a freshwater crustacean considered to be the world’s best-studied invasive zooplankter, was first recorded...  相似文献   

Effect of diets on the feeding behavior and physiological properties of suspension-feeding sea cucumber Cucumaria frondosa     

Yu  Zonghe  Robinson  Shawn  MacDonald  Bruce  Lander  Terralynn  Smith  Craig 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2020,38(3):883-893

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - The suspension-feeding sea cucumber Cucumaria frondosa has become commercially important in recent years. Finding proper diets is the first important step for...  相似文献   

Simulation of the 2014 Anomalous Warming in the Northeast Pacific     

Shawn M. Donohue  Michael W. Stacey 《大气与海洋》2016,54(4):457-468

The Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) numerical model was used to simulate the North Pacific Ocean beginning in January 1960. The model had a horizontal resolution of 0.25^o, 46 vertical levels, and employed a spectral nudging assimilation scheme that, unlike standard nudging, nudges only specific frequency and wavenumber bands. This simulation was nudged to the mean and monthly Levitus climatology of potential temperature and salinity. The model was forced with mean monthly winds, net heat flux, and precipitation from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The simulation was used to study a recent intrusion of much warmer and less saline water than normal from the west into the Gulf of Alaska, beginning in December 2013 and lasting until at least the early summer of 2014. The observed surface temperature anomalies were more than 4 standard deviations above normal. The model reproduced these anomalies in both a qualitative and quantitative manner, reproducing the same scale of anomalies over the region. An anomalous increase in the North Pacific Current (NPC) was found in the model in 2012 and the beginning of 2013, in agreement with observations. This increase in the NPC is associated with the positive phase of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. The causes of the temperature anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska could be due to three key factors: (i) an anomalously high, positive, surface heat flux in 2013 over the greater North Pacific; (ii) a significant decrease in the eastward flow of the NPC starting in late 2013 (with an accompanying decrease in cold water advection) after a period of historically strong eastward flow; and (iii) weaker winds throughout most of 2013 accompanied, however, by a shift to stronger northward winds (with an accompanying increase in warm water advection) in late 2013.  相似文献   

Isotopic composition of precipitation in a topographically steep,seasonally snow‐dominated watershed and implications of variations from the global meteoric water line          下载免费PDF全文

Daniel J. Tappa  Matthew J. Kohn  James P. McNamara  Shawn G. Benner  Alejandro N. Flores 《水文研究》2016,30(24):4582-4592

The local meteoric water line (LMWL), the functional relationship between locally measured values of δ¹⁸O and δ²H in precipitation, represents the isotopic composition of water entering hydrologic systems. The degree to which the LMWL departs from the global meteoric water line (GMWL), moreover, can reveal important information about meteoric sources of water (e.g. oceanic or terrestrial) and atmospheric conditions during transport. Here we characterize the isotopic composition of precipitation within an experimental watershed in the Western US that is subject to large topographic and seasonal gradients in precipitation. Interpreting the hydrometeorologic and spatial controls on precipitation, we constructed a seasonally weighted LMWL for southwestern Idaho that is expressed by the equation δ²H = 7.40 × δ¹⁸O ? 2.17. A seasonally weighted LMWL that is based on weighting isotopic concentrations by climatic precipitation volumes is novel, and we argue better represents the significant seasonality of precipitation in the region. The developed LMWL is considerably influenced by the semiarid climate experienced in southwest Idaho, yielding a slope and y‐intercept lower than the GMWL (δ²H = 8 × δ¹⁸O + 10). Moderate to strong correlations exist between the isotopic composition of precipitation from individual events and surface meteorologic variables, specifically surface air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation amount. A strong negative correlation exists between the annual average isotopic composition of precipitation and elevation at individual collection sites, with a lapse rate of ?0.22‰/100 m. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Semi‐automated GIS techniques for detecting floodplain earthworks     

Celine M. M. Steinfeld  Richard T. Kingsford  Shawn W. Laffan 《水文研究》2013,27(4):579-591

Levees, channels and water storages built on the world's floodplain wetlands control flows for irrigation, flood mitigation and erosion management. Assessing their distribution and hydrological impacts through time and across broad extents is limited by significant costs and technical challenges. We tested the effectiveness of three new semi‐automated geographic information systems and traditional visual interpretation techniques for detecting earthworks. We used commercially or freely available two‐dimensional and three‐dimensional spatial imagery within 19 quadrats in an agricultural floodplain of the Murray–Darling Basin, southeastern Australia. Semi‐automated digital elevation model (DEM) analysis performed best for spatial accuracy (78% of earthworks correctly predicted within 25 m), overall classification accuracy (97.7%) and kappa (0.64), compared with traditional visual interpretation techniques using Landsat TM (52%, 96.3%, 0.39), SPOT (53%, 95.8%, 0.27) and aerial photography (72%, 97.2%, 0.31). DEM analysis also outperformed semi‐automated image segmentation (16%, 93%, 0.29) and integrated analysis (75%, 96.0%, 0.43) that used spectral information. Semi‐automated techniques were slow (DEM analysis: 27 418 s/km²; integrated analysis: 27 737 s/km²; and image segmentation: 1439 s/km²) compared with visual interpretation (Landsat TM: 109 s/km²; SPOT: 166 s/km²; and aerial photography: 276 s/km²); however, processing speed of semi‐automated techniques can be further increased without compromising accuracy. Semi‐automated techniques also offered operational autonomy following model calibration. High quality, cost‐effective earthwork mapping techniques, particularly the semi‐automated techniques in this study, are critical for understanding and managing ecosystem health, flood risk and water security in developed floodplains worldwide and should be implemented by governing institutions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献