规划实施动态评估技术支撑体系研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

白晓辉  陈思  谭鲁渊  王红 《测绘通报》2017,(2):112-115

主要研究城乡规划实施动态评估技术支撑体系,将传统评估数据与城市动态数据相结合,将空间地理数据与社会属性数据相结合,将城市定量工具分析与专家经验分析相结合,最终实现了规划动态评估新模式;主要从城市发展现状动态监测、数据挖掘、动态评估工具及系统构建3个方面阐述城乡规划实施动态评估支持技术体系的关键技术及应用模式。  相似文献   

河北保定气象站长序列气温资料缺测记录插补和非均一性订正     

司鹏  郝立生  罗传军  曹晓岑  梁冬坡 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(1):41-51

基于多源的气温月值资料,在数据整合和初步质量控制基础上,同时采用标准化序列法和多元线性回归法对河北保定气象站1913-2014 年月平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料进行了插补。通过交叉检验法分析发现,标准化序列法插补得到的气温序列效果较好,并且气候统计特征与同区域周边站的研究结果更具一致性。利用惩罚最大F 检验（PMF）对插补后序列的均一性进行了检验,结果表明：通过插补得到的保定站百年气温月值序列的均一性相对较好,仅月平均最低气温序列存在2 个显著间断点,分别由同类型仪器的更换和台站迁移导致,研究中采用分位数匹配（QM）对其进行了订正,建立了保定站百年气温月值序列。通过与邻近单站及我国中东部区域均一化百年气温序列的综合对比显示,本文建立的保定站百年气温月值序列与邻近单站的相关性基本达到0.8 以上;从增暖趋势来看,保定站与中东部区域平均序列分别达0.121 ℃/10a、0.204 ℃/10a,基本在同一量级内：这一定程度上说明建立的保定站百年气温序列相对合理。  相似文献   

长江口海平面上升预测及其对滨海湿地影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

易思  谭金凯  李梦雅  梁鑫鑫  王军 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(6):598-605

选择吴淞站和吕四站2个验潮站数据,通过统计学方法进行长江口海平面上升预测,从而构建了一套长江口地区较完备的海平面上升情景库：以2013年为基准年份,其最佳预测值的范围在2030年、2050年、2100年分别为50~217 mm,118~430 mm,256~1215 mm。以此情景库为基础,探究海平面上升变化对长江口滨海湿地的影响,结果表明：随着海平面上升值的增加,长江口滨海湿地的面积不断减少;在基于验潮站数据作趋势外推得到的情景下,湿地面积减少较平缓,而在考虑全球变暖背景的情景下,湿地面积减少迅速;且不论在何种情景下,时间尺度越大,湿地减少的面积越大。  相似文献   

Hydrology of Dali Lake in central-eastern Inner Mongolia and Holocene East Asian monsoon variability   总被引：12，自引：1，他引：11  

Jule Xiao  Bin Si  Dayou Zhai  Shigeru Itoh  Zaur Lomtatidze 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2008,40(1):519-528

Lacustrine records from the northern margin of the East Asian monsoon generate a conflicting picture of Holocene monsoonal precipitation change. To seek an integrated view of East Asian monsoon variability during the Holocene, an 8.5-m-long sediment core recovered in the depocenter of Dali Lake in central-eastern Inner Mongolia was analyzed at 1-cm intervals for total organic and inorganic carbon concentrations. The data indicate that Dali Lake reached its highest level during the early Holocene (11,500–7,600 cal yr BP). The middle Holocene (7,600–3,450 cal yr BP) was characterized by dramatic fluctuations in the lake level with three intervals of lower lake stands occurring 6,600–5,850, 5,100–4,850 and 4,450–3,750 cal yr BP, respectively. During the late Holocene (3,450 cal yr BP to present), the lake displayed a general shrinking trend with the lowest levels at three episodes of 3,150–2,650, 1,650–1,150 and 550–200 cal yr BP. We infer that the expansion of the lake during the early Holocene would have resulted from the input of the snow/ice melt, rather than the monsoonal precipitation, in response to the increase in summer solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere. We also interpret the rise in the lake level since ca. 7,600 cal yr BP as closely related to increased monsoonal precipitation over the lake region resulting from increased temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool and a westward shifted and strengthened Kuroshio Current in the western Pacific. Moreover, high variability of the East Asian monsoon climate since 7,600 cal yr BP, marked by large fluctuations in the lake level, might have been directly associated with variations in the intensity and frequency of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.  相似文献   

城市居民认知距离透视认知变形 ——-以北京市为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

薛露露  申思  刘瑜  张毅 《地理科学进展》2008,27(2):96-103

对距离的认知是人类建立认知空间框架的重要基础。本文在相关研究的基础上, 对认知距离的特点进行了分析, 提出从数量认知距离与实际认知距离两种分析角度来分析这一概念。通过分别利用定义一元线性回归, 与 采用多维标度法(MDS)及二维回归(BR), 对认知距离的标量变形和向量变形进行定量分析。在此基础上, 以北京市 为例, 对北京市居民进行抽样调查。通过认知心理学实验的方式, 令被试估计城市主要地标两两之间的距离。对实 验结果分别将上述方法应用于计算北京市居民在标量变形和向量变形的定量化表示, 并进一步通过方差分析 (ANOVA)讨论了影响北京市居民对城市距离认知变形的因素, 包括年龄、居住地区等。  相似文献   

全球变暖对新疆水循环影响分析   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

冯思  黄云  许有鹏 《冰川冻土》2006,28(4):500-505

随着全球气候变暖,新疆地区降水量、冰川数量、径流量、地下水位等自20世纪80年代中后期以来发生了很大的变化.通过对61个国家水文、气象站点20世纪50年代到2000年的降水量、气温、冰川、径流量、湖泊水量、地下水位的变化资料分析,探讨了新疆水循环的变化趋势和原因.结果表明:新疆地区降水量增加主要是由于全球水循环速度加快引起的.通过分析新疆高山冰川的变化,试图揭示全球气候持续变暖对新疆乃至整个西北地区水资源可能造成的巨大影响.  相似文献   

Response of estuarine meio- and macrofauna to in situ bioremediation of oil-contaminated sediment     

Schratzberger M  Daniel F  Wall CM  Kilbride R  Macnaughton SJ  Boyd SE  Rees HL  Lee K  Swannell RP 《Marine pollution bulletin》2003,46(4):430-443

Numerous studies have demonstrated the efficacy of bioremediation for enhancing oil removal but the ecological effect on shoreline biota is unclear. Therefore, a field experiment was designed at an intertidal sandflat in SW England to assess the effects of nutrient addition to oiled sediments on meio- and macrofauna for a period of up to 45 weeks. Natural assemblages were exposed to different types of experimental treatments (no oil, oil alone, oil treated with slow-release fertiliser or liquid fertiliser). Bioremediation stimulated the microbial population and increased oil biodegradation. This, however, did not result in faster recolonisation rates of fertilised versus non-fertilised oiled sediments. Mild effects of oil and bioremediation treatments on benthic fauna were observed, including short-term shifts in dominance patterns. Decreased abundance of dominant species in the oiled compared to unoiled sediments resulted in significantly higher evenness of benthic assemblages within the first 11 weeks of the experiment.  相似文献   

Environmental effects of water resource development and use in the Tarim River basin of northwestern China   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Feng?QiEmail author  Liu?Wei  Si?Jianhua  Su?Yonghong  Zhang?Yewu  Cang?Zongqiang  Xi?Haiyang 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(2):202-210

The unbridled development and use of water resources in the Tarim River basin over the last 50 years have led to a serious degradation of soil (>12×10³ km² of land desertified between the 1960s and 1990s) and water quality (rise in maximum salinity was from 1.3 g l^–1 in 1960, to 4.0 g l^–1 in 1981–1984, and to 7.8 g l^–1 in 1998). Approximately 300 km of the lower reaches of the river course dried up between the 1950s and 1970s, seriously altering the downstream hydrological processes (a 4–6 m drop in groundwater levels from the 1960s to the 1980s, and 0.2 m yr^–1 thereafter) and ecosystems (67% and 50% decrease (1958–1978) in Populus euphratica forest acreage and biomass, respectively). Between the 1950s and 1990s, 3820 km² of P. euphratica forest and 200 km² of shrub- and grassland were lost in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. In this study, based on estimates of soil organic carbon in desertified lands, it has been found that in the last 30 years (1970–2000), approximately 112 Tg of organic carbon (28% originating in the 0–1.0 m soil profile) has been released into the atmosphere as a result of soil degradation in the Tarim River basin. Intensive anthropogenic disturbance has been one of the foremost factors leading to the deterioration of water resources in this region. The key to solving these problems is to enhance the scientific and technical level of monitoring, management, and restoration of water resources and associated water and soil components of local ecosystems.  相似文献   

简评五年来地理学学位论文     

思宁 《地理研究》1989,8(3):109-112

自从1984年《地理研究》开辟地理学学位论文摘要这个栏目到现在已经有五年历史了,尽管这个栏目很小,仅占学术刊物的一角之地;所刊登的学位论文,据不完全统计,也只占全部地理学学位论文的三分之一左右,但它已经起到了它所应起的作用,扩大了地理科学这一部分宝贵财富的社会效益,为地理界提供了一个“相互了解和学位的园地”¹⁾,作为文献,它也是青年地理学家的第一个记录,并且使我们从中看出,新一代的地理学家正在继往开来,茁壮成长,予示着未来地理学的光辉前程,这是值得我们广大地理工作者高兴的。  相似文献   

A three-dimensional finite element program for brittle bimodular rock-like materials     

Akhtar S. Khan  Si Yuan 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1988,12(6):599-609

The present paper models the behaviour of bimodular materials (materials with different tensile and compressive moduli) by using a three-dimensional finite element method. Since there is no explicit and definite expression for the shear modulus G of bimodular materials, the analysis starts with a 3 × 3 elasticity matrix in the principal stress coordinate system, and then uses a transformation from principal to Cartesian coordinates to obtain the 6 × 6 elasticity matrix. A corresponding iterative technique is proposed, and multiloading sequences in non-proportionate loading—which need more iterations because of the non-linear elastic property—are also discussed. Numerical examples are presented which show good agreement with analytical results.  相似文献