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51.
52.
Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function.
This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients
from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance
model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns
out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of
eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the
2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance
function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields
with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial
interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the
predefined covariance functions are evaluated. 相似文献
53.
54.
We study the importance of the zones of weakness and the pattern of downgoing flow in steady-state models of subducting lithosphere, which interacts mechanically and thermally with the ambient mantle. The non-linear system of governing equations consists of (i) the momentum equation in stream function formulation and (ii) the steady-state heat transfer equation including conduction and advection of heat and dissipation. A finite element method has been applied to this system. We consider the viscosity to be a non-linear function of both the temperature and the stream function. In steady-state two-dimensional (2D) flow, the stream function isolines follow material trajectories. They are used to follow the top of the subducting slab, which because of its possible increase in water content, is assumed to have a lower viscosity. The zone of weakness has been thus obtained in the self-consistent fashion since the stream function as well as the temperature are the output from our modeling and no a priori assumptions about the shape of the bending lithosphere are taken into account. It was shown that several orders decrease of viscosity in the zone of weakness is required to obtain the dip angle of about 45°. If the decrease of viscosity is not sufficient enough, the subducted slab either sinks almost vertically or does not exhibit a plate-like behavior. We have also demonstrated that shear heating can unrealistically increase at the zone of weakness for fast subductions if decrease of viscosity is underestimated. 相似文献
55.
A Modeling Study of the Effects of Anomalous Snow Cover over the Tibetan Plateau upon the South Asian Summer Monsoon 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The effect of anomalous snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau upon the South Asian summer monsoon is investigated by numerical simulations using the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM2) into which gravity wave drag has been introduced. The simulations adopt relatively realistic snow mass forcings based on Scanning Multi-channel Microwave Radiometer (SNINIR) pentad snow depth data. The physical mechanism and spatial structure of the sensitivity of the South Asian early summer monsoon to snow cover anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau are revealed. The main results are summarized as follows. The heavier than normal snow cover over the Plateau can obviously reduce the shortwave radiation absorbed by surface through the albedo effect, which is compensated by weaker upward sensible heat flux associated with colder surface temperature, whereas the effects of snow melting and evaporation are relatively smaller.The anomalies of surface heat fluxes can last until June and become unobvious in July. The decrease of the Plateau surface temperature caused by heavier snow cover reaches its maximum value from late April to early May. The atmospheric cooling in the mid-upper troposphere over the Plateau and its surrounding areas is most obvious in May and can keep a fairly strong intensity in June. In contrast, there is warming to the south of the Plateau in the mid-lower troposphere from April to June with a maximum value in May.The heavier snow cover over the Plateau can reduce the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon and rainfall to some extent, but this influence is only obvious in early summer and almost disappears in later stages. 相似文献
56.
The phase relations of quaternary systems are generally represented by projections onto ternary compositional planes. Such
projections often obscure relationships that would only be evident in a three-dimensional tetrahedral plot. The tetrahedral
plot requires that compositions of the minerals and melts be transformed into Cartesian coordinates. It is shown here how
this transformation is carried out. The application is demonstrated by tetrahedral plots of experimental melt compositions
of partially molten lherzolite. Furthermore, the plot can be used to evaluate whether or not a particular basaltic composition
represents a primary melt. The methods are applicable to any four-component system. 相似文献
57.
Informal networks and resilience to climate change impacts: A collective approach to index insurance
Sara L.M. Trærup 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):255-267
This article contributes to the understanding of how to proceed with the development of index-insurance in order to reach extended population coverage with the insurance. The approach is applied to an example from a region in Tanzania. One of the main coping strategies that resource-poor households rely on to manage risks related to fluctuations in income flows is risk-sharing in informal networks. An informal network is an ideal way of managing idiosyncratic shocks, but once such shocks become covariate and affect whole communities, as is the case with most climate change impacts, informal networks become insufficient since the majority of risk-sharers will be affected by the shock at the same time. This paper proposes a collective approach to index-insurance in which the members of an informal network will be insured as one insurance taker. The paper raises a conceptual argument that targeting households through existing informal networks will remove a number of prevailing barriers to the take-up of insurance and consequently the approach has the potential to increase households’ resilience to climate change impacts. The policy implications of the conclusions are significant since the number of covariate shocks is predicted to increase with climate change. 相似文献
58.
Norbert?A.?GajosEmail author Craig?C.?Lundstrom Alexander?H.?Taylor 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2016,171(11):93
We present new Fe and Si isotope ratio data for the Torres del Paine igneous complex in southern Chile. The multi-composition pluton consists of an approximately 1 km vertical exposure of homogenous granite overlying a contemporaneous 250-m-thick mafic gabbro suite. This first-of-its-kind spatially dependent Fe and Si isotope investigation of a convergent margin-related pluton aims to understand the nature of granite and silicic igneous rock formation. Results collected by MC-ICP-MS show a trend of increasing δ56Fe and δ30Si with increasing silica content as well as a systematic increase in δ56Fe away from the mafic base of the pluton. The marginal Torres del Paine granites have heavier Fe isotope signatures (δ56Fe = +0.25 ± 0.02 2se) compared to granites found in the interior pluton (δ56Fe = +0.17 ± 0.02 2se). Cerro Toro country rock values are isotopically light in both Fe and Si isotopic systems (δ56Fe = +0.05 ± 0.02 ‰; δ30Si = ?0.38 ± 0.07 ‰). The variations in the Fe and Si isotopic data cannot be accounted for by local assimilation of the wall rocks, in situ fractional crystallization, late-stage fluid exsolution or some combination of these processes. Instead, we conclude that thermal diffusion or source magma variation is the most likely process producing Fe isotope ratio variations in the Torres del Paine pluton. 相似文献
60.
Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) were measured using a relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) technique on an above-canopy tower in a temperate forest (Changbai Mountain, Jilin province, China) during the 2010 and 2011 summer seasons. Solar global radiation and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) were also measured. Based on PAR energy dynamic balance, an empirical BVOC emission and PAR transfer model was developed that includes the processes of BVOC emissions and PAR transfer above the canopy level, including PAR absorption and consumption, and scattering by gases, liquids, and particles (GLPs). Simulated emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes were in agreement with observations. The averages of the relative estimator biases for the flux were 39.3 % for isoprene, and 27.1 % for monoterpenes in the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons, with NMSE (normalized mean square error) values of 0.133 and 0.101, respectively. The observed and simulated mean diurnal variations of isoprene and monoterpenes in the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons were evaluated for the validation of the empirical model. Under observed atmospheric conditions, the sensitivity analysis showed that emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes were more sensitive to changes in PAR than to water vapor content or to the magnitude of the scattering factor. The emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes in the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons (from June to September) were estimated using this empirical model along with hourly observational data, with mean hourly emissions of 1.71 and 1.55 mg m?2 h?1 for isoprene, and 0.48 and 0.47 mg m?2 h?1 for monoterpenes in 2010 and 2011, respectively. As formaldehyde (HCHO) is considered as the main oxidation product of isoprene and monoterpenes, it is necessary to investigate the link between HCHO and BVOC emissions. GOME-2 HCHO vertical column densities (VCDs) can be used to estimate BVOC emission fluxes in the Changbai Mountain temperate forest. 相似文献