Verifying warnings for point precipitation     

Willi Schmid  Marc Wüest   《Atmospheric Research》2005,77(1-4):347

Short-term risk forecasts of point precipitation are obtained with COTREC/RainCast, a technique for extrapolation of radar images. The risk forecasts are updated every 5 min for the next 0–2 h. Risk levels are defined for moderate, heavy and extreme precipitation. Warning messages are generated if, at the locations of 23 rain gauges, these risk levels are reached or exceeded. The time-resolved gauge data are used to judge if the warning messages are in time, early or late.Data over a period of 4 months (summer 2002) are used for verification. The largest number of warnings (1790) was obtained for moderate precipitation. About 55% of these warnings were in time, 23% were early and 22% were late. This finding is in a good agreement with the defined risk level for warnings (50%), indicating that the model for calculating the risk factors is reliable. Less warnings in time, and more late warnings were found for heavy and extreme precipitation. Hence, the risk levels need to be lowered for heavy and extreme precipitation, in order to reduce the number of late warnings.  相似文献   

The contact zone between the ALCAPA and Tisza-Dacia mega-tectonic units of Northern Romania in the light of new paleomagnetic data     

Emõ Márton  Matthias Tischler  László Csontos  Bernhard Fügenschuh  Stefan M. Schmid 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2007,100(1):109-124

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Progress in isotope paleohydrology using lake sediment cellulose     

Brent B. Wolfe  Matthew D. Falcone  Ken P. Clogg-Wright  Cherie L. Mongeon  Yi Yi  Bronwyn E. Brock  Natalie A. St. Amour  William A. Mark  Thomas W. D. Edwards 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2007,37(2):221-231

Recent advances in sample preparation techniques and mass spectrometry have fostered more routine oxygen isotope analysis of aquatic cellulose in lake sediment cores, a proxy for lake water oxygen isotope history. These methodological developments have significantly increased the feasibility of incorporating this approach into high-resolution, multi-site, and multi-proxy studies, which are frequently necessary to answer complex hydrological, hydroecological and hydroclimatic questions requiring a paleoenvironmental perspective. Direct translation of lake sediment aquatic cellulose oxygen isotope composition into lake water oxygen isotope composition offers appreciable opportunity for quantitative paleohydrological reconstructions, as evidenced by studies conducted over the past 15 years that span Holocene and pre-historical timescales.  相似文献   

Small and large scale fluctuations in atmospheric wind speeds     

F. Böttcher  St. Barth  J. Peinke 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(3):299-308

Atmospheric wind speeds and their fluctuations at different locations (onshore and offshore) are examined. One of the most striking features is the marked intermittency of probability density functions (PDF) of velocity differences, no matter what location is considered. The shape of these PDFs is found to be robust over a wide range of scales which seems to contradict the mathematical concept of stability where a Gaussian distribution should be the limiting one. Motivated by the non-stationarity of atmospheric winds it is shown that the intermittent distributions can be understood as a superposition of different subsets of isotropic turbulence. Thus we suggest a simple stochastic model to reproduce the measured statistics of wind speed fluctuations.  相似文献   

The surface energy balance of a snow cover: comparing measurements to two differentsimulation models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

D. Gustafsson  M. Stähli  P.-E. Jansson 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2001,70(1-4):81-96

Summary  We compared two one-dimensional simulation models for heat and water fluxes in the soil-snow-atmosphere system with respect to their mathematical formulations of the surface heat exchange and the snow pack evolution. They were chosen as examples of a simple one-layer snow model and a more detailed multiple-layer snow model (SNTHERM). The snow models were combined with the same one-dimensional model for the heat and water balance of the underlying soil (CoupModel). Data from an arable field in central Sweden (Marsta), covering two years (1997–1999) of soil temperature, snow depth and eddy-correlation measurements were successfully compared with the models. Conditions with a snow pack deeper or shallower than 10 cm and bare soil resulted in similar discrepancies. The simulated net radiation and sensible heat flux were in good agreement with that measured during snow-covered periods, except for situations with snowmelt when the downward sensible heat flux was overestimated by 10–20 Wm⁻². The results showed that the uncertainties in parameter values were more important than the model formulation and that both models were useful in evaluating the limitations and uncertainties of the measurements. Received November 1, 1999 Revised April 20, 2000  相似文献   

Naturally Enhanced Ion-Acoustic Spectra And Their Interpretation     

Francis Sedgemore-Schulthess  Jean-Pierre St. Maurice 《Surveys in Geophysics》2001,22(1):55-92

Incoherent scatter radars are designed to detect scatter from thermalfluctuations in the ionosphere. These fluctuations contain, among other things,features associated with ion-acoustic waves driven by random motions within theplasma. The resulting spectra are generally broad and noisy, but neverthelessthe technique can, through a detailed analysis of spectra, be used to measure arange of physical parameters in the Earth's upper atmosphere, and provides apowerful diagnostic in studies of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,thermosphere dynamics and the geospace environment in general. In recent yearsthere has been much interest in naturally occurring (as opposed to artificiallystimulated) enhanced ion-acoustic spectra seen in the auroral zone andcusp/cleft region. A study of the plasma instability processes that lead tosuch spectra will help us to better understand auroral particle acceleration,wave-particle and wave-wave interactions in the ionosphere, and theirassociation with magnetospheric processes. There is now a substantial body ofliterature documenting observations of enhanced ion-acoustic spectra, but thereremains controversy over generation mechanisms. We present a review ofliterature documenting observations of naturally enhanced ion-acoustic spectra,observed mainly along the geomagnetic field direction, along with a discussionof the theories put forward to explain such phenomena.  相似文献   

Rheology and geodynamic modelling: the next step forward     

M. Handy  J. Braun  M. Brown  N. Kukowski  M. Paterson  S. Schmid  B. Stöckhert  K. Stüwe  A. Thompson  E. Wosnitza 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2001,90(1):149-156

The application of continuum mechanics and microstructural analysis to geological studies over the past 30 years has spurred earth scientists to reassess fundamental tectonic processes such as subduction, collision and rifting in terms of dynamics. Armed with new analytical methods, geologists have returned to the field to look at rock structures with more mechanistic eyes. The advent of sophisticated computers, programs, and laboratory deformation equipment has facilitated the simulation of geodynamic processes that range in scale from the grain to the lithosphere. The result has been specialization, with the concomitant opening of communication gaps between geodynamicists, field geologists and rock mechanicists. Partly, these gaps reflect differences of perception and approach. In order to bridge these gaps, a workshop was organized after the DRM conference to debate how field and laboratory studies of deformed rocks can improve our understanding of lithospheric rheology, and in turn, how this understanding can be used to refine dynamic models of orogenesis. The workshop hosted participants with backgrounds in structural geology, experimental rock mechanics, metamorphic petrology and both numerical and analogue modelling. This paper summarizes the main controversies and conclusions reached during the workshop. For the sake of brevity, referencing in this summary is restricted to literature referred to during the oral presentations and to comments made by speakers themselves (names italicized).  相似文献   

The DAV and Periadriatic fault systems in the Eastern Alps south of the Tauern window     

Neil S. Mancktelow  Daniel F. Stöckli  Balz Grollimund  Wolfgang Müller  Bernhard Fügenschuh  Giulio Viola  Diane Seward  Igor M. Villa 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2001,90(3):593-622

Alpine deformation of Austroalpine units south of the Tauern window is dominated by two kinematic regimes. Prior to intrusion of the main Periadriatic plutons at ~30 Ma, the shear sense was sinistral in the current orientation, with a minor north-side-up component. Sinistral shearing locally overprints contact metamorphic porphyroblasts and early Periadriatic dykes. Direct Rb-Sr dating of microsampled synkinematic muscovite gave ages in the range 33-30 Ma, whereas pseudotachylyte locally crosscutting the mylonitic foliation gave an interpreted ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar age of ~46 Ma. The transition from sinistral to dextral (transpressive) kinematics related to the Periadriatic fault occurred rapidly, between solidification of the earlier dykes and of the main plutons. Subsequent brittle-ductile to brittle faults are compatible with N-S to NNW-SSE shortening and orogen-parallel extension. Antithetic Riedel shears are distinguished from the previous sinistral fabric by their fine-grained quartz microstructures, with local pseudotachylyte formation. One such pseudotachylyte from Speikboden gave a ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar age of 20 Ma, consistent with pseudotachylyte ages related to the Periadriatic fault. The magnitude of dextral offset on the Periadriatic fault cannot be directly estimated. However, the jump in zircon and apatite fission-track ages establishes that the relative vertical displacement was ~4-5 km since 24 Ma, and that movement continued until at least 13 Ma.  相似文献   

Two Experimental Methods to Determine the Speciation of Cadmium in Sediment from the River Neckar     

N. Martin  I. Schuster  St. Peiffer 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1996,24(2):68-76

The binding forms of Cd to an anaerobic sediment of low sulfide content from Lauffen reservoir (River Neckar, Germany) were studied using two different approaches, i. e. sequential extraction (modified from published protocols) and titrimetric study of the pH-dependent Cd release. Thermodynamic equilibrium calculations were applied to calculate both the release pattern of Cd during the titrations and the speciation of Cd within the single fractions of the extraction protocol. The calculations were based on measured sediment parameters such as hydrous ferric oxide (HFO), acid volatile sulfide, carbonate content and total Cd content, and the extractants (oxalate, acid etc.) used. The results of the two independent approaches coincided well in that they both assigned more than two thirds of the total Cd content to be adsorbed to organic matter. Cd bound as CdS is of little importance. Sequential extraction after a 3-month oxidation period at pH 7 revealed a shift of Cd from being mainly bound in stronger surface complexes with organic matter to being mainly bound in weaker surface complexes with organic matter and HFO, and thus becoming more bioavailable. This study suggests that the use of sequential extraction although being frequently criticized due to its operational character can be used to determine binding forms of metal ions if they are accompanied by 1) careful supporting experiments, 2) analysis of important sediment parameters, and 3) the use of thermodynamic equlibrium models which can help to understand Cd speciation within the extraction fractions.  相似文献   

The Sudbury Structure (Ontario,Canada): a tectonically deformed multi-ring impact basin     

A. Deutsch  R. A. F. Grieve  M. Avermann  L. Bischoff  P. Brockmeyer  D. Buhl  R. Lakomy  V. Müller-Mohr  M. Ostermann  D. Stöffler 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1995,84(4):697-709

The occurrence of shock metamorphic features substantiates an impact origin for the 1.85 Ga old Sudbury Structure, but this has not been universally accepted. Recent improvements in knowledge of large-scale impact processes, combined with new petrographic, geochemical, geophysical (LITHOPROBE) and structural data, allow the Sudbury Structure to be interpreted as a multi-ring impact structure. The structure consists of the following lithologies: Sudbury Breccia —dike breccias occurring up to 80 km from the Sudbury Igneous Complex (SIC); Footwall rocks and Footwall Breccia — brecciated, shocked crater floor materials, in part thermally metamorphosed by the overlying SIC; Sublayer and Offset Dikes, Main Mass of the SIC and Basal Member of the Onaping Formation (OF) — geochemically heterogeneous coherent impact melt complex ranging from inclusion-rich basal unit through a dominantly inclusion-free to a capping inclusion-rich impact melt rock; Grey Member of OF — melt-rich impact breccia (suevite); Green Member of OF — thin layer of fall back ejecta; Black Member of OF — reworked and redeposited breccia material; Onwatin and Chelmsford Formations — post-impact sediments. Observational and analytical data support an integrated step-by-step impact model for the genesis of these units. Analysis of the present spatial distribution of various impact-related lithologies and shock metamorphic effects result in an estimated original rim-to-rim diameter of the final crater of 200 or even 280 km for the Sudbury Structure, prior to tectonic thrusting and deformation during the Penokean orogeny.  相似文献