The GCM credibility gap     

Steven J. Ghan 《Climatic change》1992,21(4):345-346

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Use of a reservoir water quality model to simulate global climate change effects on fish habitat     

Lisa H. Chang  Steven F. Railsback  Russell T. Brown 《Climatic change》1992,20(4):277-296

A case study was conducted on the potential impacts of climate change on fish habitat in a southeastern reservoir. A reservoir water quality model and one year of baseline meteorologic, hydrologic, and inflow water quality input were used to simulate current reservoir water quality. Total adult striped bass habitat, defined by specific quantitative temperature and dissolved oxygen criteria, was simulated. Daily reservoir volumes with optimal, suboptimal, and unsuitable temperature and DO were predicted for the year. Output from recent runs of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), in which atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have been doubled, was then used to adjust the baseline inputs to the water quality model. New sets of input data were created for two grid cells for each of three GCMs. All six climate scenarios are predicted to cause overall declines in the available summer striped bass habitat, mostly due to lake water temperatures exceeding striped bass tolerance levels. These predictions are believed to result from the consensus among GCM scenarios that air temperatures and humidity will rise, and the sensitivity of the reservoir model to these parameters. The reservoir model was found to be a promising tool for examining potential climate-change impacts. Some of the assumptions required to apply GCM output to the reservoir model, however, illustrate the problems in using large-scale gridcell output to assess small-scale impacts.  相似文献   

The Disparity Between the Level of Economic Development and Human Welfare     

Steven R. Holloway  Kavita Pandit 《The Professional geographer》1992,44(1):57-71

The lack of correspondence between traditional economic development measures, such as GNP per capita, and human welfare measures, such as the PQLI, has been well documented in the literature. We devised and analyzed an economic development-welfare disparity measure, and found considerable geographic variability, with actual levels of human welfare much less than expected in many Middle Eastern and African countries, given the level of economic development. Exploratory correlation and regression analysis revealed that inequalities in the distribution of economic power and governmental expenditures contributed to the geographic variability. More importantly, each region improved its standing on the development-welfare disparity measure when relevant factors were controlled via multivariate regression.  相似文献   

A skeletal assemblage classification system for non-tropical carbonate deposits based on New Zealand Cenozoic limestones     

Shaun Hayton  Campbell S. Nelson  Steven D. Hood 《Sedimentary Geology》1995,100(1-4)

Cenozoic limestones in New Zealand are mainly skeletal grainstones and packstones formed under non-tropical climatic conditions in open marine shelf or ramp environments. Following petrographic analysis of the nature and abundance of the skeletal components in nearly 500 samples of these limestones, a complete linkage cluster analysis identified seven major skeletal assemblages that may be regarded as subdivisions of the single foramol skeletal association defined by Lees and Buller (1972) for temperate-region carbonate deposits. The seven assemblages are given contracted names, as follows: (a) BARNAMOL = barnacle/bivalve-dominated; (b) BIMOL = bivalve-dominated; (c) BRYOMOL = bryozoan/bivalve-dominated; (d) ECHINOFOR = echinoderm/benthic foraminiferal-dominated; (e) NANNOFOR = nannofossil/planktonic foraminiferal-dominated; (f) RHODALGAL = calcareous red algal-dominated; and (g) RHODECHFOR = calcareous red algal/echinoderm/benthic foraminiferal-dominated. A composite triangular classification diagram has been devised for naming the skeletal assemblage of an unknown sample on the basis of its three main skeletal components. The diagram successfully characterises more than 85% of the New Zealand Cenozoic limestone samples and also appears to be applicable for the skeletal assemblage designation of many overseas examples of non-tropical carbonate deposits. Limitations relate mainly to locally common skeletal types (e.g. serpulids, brachiopods) that are presently not incorporated into the New Zealand-based scheme. The general ecological preferences of the main skeletal contributors in each of the seven skeletal assemblages form a basis for relating the assemblages to broad shelf habitats. Consequently, as well as the benefits of providing a more consistent skeletal assemblage terminology for comparative studies between different workers, the scheme can assist with the paleoenvironmental interpretation of non-tropical skeletal carbonate facies.  相似文献   

Formation of planetary systems: A. Brahic (Ed.). Cepadues-Editions,Toulouse, France, 1982. 896 pp., 295 FF.     

Steven J. Ostro 《Icarus》1983,55(3):498-499

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The location of exploding granules     

Marc S. Allen  Steven Musman 《Solar physics》1973,32(2):311-314

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VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL POPULATION OF THE CLASSIC MAYA     

Steven L. Driever  B.A.  M.S.  Ph.D.  Don R. Hoy  B.A.  M.A.  Ph.D. 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》1984,5(2):140-153

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Interference in solar oscillations     

R. J. Reif  Steven Musman 《Solar physics》1971,20(2):257-263

We have analyzed magnetograph observations of the 5-min oscillations. We find that most of the oscillatory power is concentrated in space and frequency. Interference effects where these concentrations overlap can explain some of the variations in amplitude of the oscillation.Of the National Bureau of Standards and University of Colorado.  相似文献   

A River Water Quality Model for Chlorophyll and Dissolved Oxygen that Accommodates Zebra Mussel Metabolism   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gelda  Rakesh K.  Effler  Steven W. 《Water Quality and Ecosystems Modeling》2000,1(1-4):271-309

The development, testing and application of a dynamic two-dimensional (longitudinal-vertical) mass balance model for dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll (Chl) for rivers is documented that for the first time accommodates both the oxygen demand and filtering effects of zebra mussels. The test system is a phytoplankton-rich section ( 15 km long) of the Seneca River, NY, that is believed to represent an upper bound of the impact of this exotic invader. Changes in common measures of water quality of the river brought about by the zebra mussel invasion are reviewed and related longitudinal patterns in DO, Chl, and Secchi disc transparency are documented. Model testing is supported by comprehensive measurements of DO, Chl, and various forcing conditions over a three-month period, and independent determinations of several model coefficients. Wide variations in the areal consumption rate of DO (ZOD; g·m^–2·d^–1) and filtering rate (m³·m^–2·d^–1) of zebra mussels, as determined through model calibration, occurred over the study period. Values of ZOD in areas with dense zebra mussel populations at times (e.g., > 50 g·m^–2·d^–1) were an order of magnitude greater than the sediment oxygen demand associated with organically enriched deposits. The value of determinations of these fluxes from model calibration procedures is evaluated within the context of the limitations of protocols presently available to support independent specification of these rates. Model analyses are conducted to evaluate the relative magnitude of source and sink processes for DO and Chl, the potential operation and implications of feedback from low DO levels on oxygen consumption by zebra mussels, and the sensitivity of model simulations to selected sources of uncertainty and variability. Model projections of oxygen resources of the river are presented in a probabilistic format in evaluating reductions in zebra mussel biomass that would be necessary to eliminate violations of standards and regain assimilative capacity.  相似文献   

Modeling studies of the upper ocean response to a tropical cyclone     

Steven L. Morey  Mark A. Bourassa  Dmitry S. Dukhovskoy  James J. O’Brien 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(5-6):594-606

A coupled ocean and boundary layer flux numerical modeling system is used to study the upper ocean response to surface heat and momentum fluxes associated with a major hurricane, namely, Hurricane Dennis (July 2005) in the Gulf of Mexico. A suite of experiments is run using this modeling system, constructed by coupling a Navy Coastal Ocean Model simulation of the Gulf of Mexico to an atmospheric flux model. The modeling system is forced by wind fields produced from satellite scatterometer and atmospheric model wind data, and by numerical weather prediction air temperature data. The experiments are initialized from a data assimilative hindcast model run and then forced by surface fluxes with no assimilation for the time during which Hurricane Dennis impacted the region. Four experiments are run to aid in the analysis: one is forced by heat and momentum fluxes, one by only momentum fluxes, one by only heat fluxes, and one with no surface forcing. An equation describing the change in the upper ocean hurricane heat potential due to the storm is developed. Analysis of the model results show that surface heat fluxes are primarily responsible for widespread reduction (0.5°–1.5°C) of sea surface temperature over the inner West Florida Shelf 100–300 km away from the storm center. Momentum fluxes are responsible for stronger surface cooling (2°C) near the center of the storm. The upper ocean heat loss near the storm center of more than 200 MJ/m² is primarily due to the vertical flux of thermal energy between the surface layer and deep ocean. Heat loss to the atmosphere during the storm’s passage is approximately 100–150 MJ/m². The upper ocean cooling is enhanced where the preexisting mixed layer is shallow, e.g., within a cyclonic circulation feature, although the heat flux to the atmosphere in these locations is markedly reduced.  相似文献