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51.
Low levels of dissolved oil hydrocarbons are demonstrated to produce sublethal effects on the early cod larval stages. These effects are discussed in relation to larval survival through the first critical stages.Continuous exposure of cod eggs and larvae to 0·05 and 0·25 ppm of the water-soluble fraction (WSF) of Ekofisk crude oil for 14 days caused significant reduction in growth and change in neutral buoyancy. The larvae exposed to 0·25 ppm showed malformation in the foremost part of the head and jaw, which reduced their ability to capture prey organisms at first feeding.  相似文献   
52.
This paper concentrates on four key tools for performing star cluster simulations developed during the last decade which are sufficient to handle all the relevant dynamical aspects. First we discuss briefly the Hermite integration scheme which is simple to use and highly efficient for advancing the single particles. The main numerical challenge is in dealing with weakly and strongly perturbed hard binaries. A new treatment of the classical Kustaanheimo-Stiefel two-body regularization has proved to be more accurate for studying binaries than previous algorithms based on divided differences or Hermite integration. This formulation employs a Taylor series expansion combined with the Stumpff functions, still with one force evaluation per step, which gives exact solutions for unperturbed motion and is at least comparable to the polynomial methods for large perturbations. Strong interactions between hard binaries and single stars or other binaries are studied by chain regularization which ensures a non-biased outcome for chaotic motions. A new semi-analytical stability criterion for hierarchical systems has been adopted and the long-term effects on the inner binary are now treated by averaging techniques for cases of interest. These modifications describe consistent changes of the orbital variables due to large Kozai cycles and tidal dissipation. The range of astrophysical processes which can now be considered by N-body simulations include tidal capture, circularization, mass transfer by Roche-lobe overflow as well as physical collisions, where the masses and radii of individual stars are modelled by synthetic stellar evolution. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
53.
Expected annual loss (EAL), which can be expressed in dollars, is an effective way of communicating the seismic vulnerability of constructed facilities to owners and insurers. A simplified method for estimating EAL without conducting time‐consuming non‐linear dynamic analyses is presented. Relationships between intensity measures and engineering demand parameters resulting from a pushover analysis and a modified capacity‐spectrum method are combined with epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to arrive at a probabilistic demand model. Damage measures are established to determine thresholds for damage states from which loss ratios can be defined. Financial implications due to damage can then be quantified in the form of EAL by integrating total losses for all likely earthquake scenarios. This rapid loss estimation method is verified through the computationally intensive incremental dynamic analysis, with the results processed using a distribution‐free methodology. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the seismic vulnerability of two highway bridge piers is compared; one bridge is traditionally designed for ductility while the other is based on an emerging damage avoidance design (DAD) philosophy. The DAD pier is found to have a clear advantage over the conventional pier; the EAL of the DAD pier is less than 20% of its ductile counterpart. This is shown to be primarily due to its inherent damage‐free behaviour for small to medium earthquake intensities, whose contribution to EAL is significantly more than that of very rare events. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
54.
The well-exposed Golden Valley Sill Complex, Karoo basin, South Africa, consists of four large sills (ca. 100 m thick; long axes: 13–24 km), one small sill (55–80 m thick; long axis: 4 km; forming an appendix to one of the large sills), and two large dykes (15–20 m thick; 25 and 70 km long), plus some minor intrusions. Field mapping shows physical connections between the small sill and one of the large sills, but no other connection between the large sills, or connections between the sills and the large dykes.  相似文献   
55.
Time-lapse seismic data is useful for identifying fluid movement and pressure and saturation changes in a petroleum reservoir and for monitoring of CO2 injection. The focus of this paper is estimation of time-lapse changes with uncertainty quantification using full-waveform inversion. The purpose of also estimating the uncertainty in the inverted parameters is to be able to use the inverted seismic data quantitatively for updating reservoir models with ensemble-based methods. We perform Bayesian inversion of seismic waveform data in the frequency domain by combining an iterated extended Kalman filter with an explicit representation of the sensitivity matrix in terms of Green functions (acoustic approximation). Using this method, we test different strategies for inversion of the time-lapse seismic data with uncertainty. We compare the results from a sequential strategy (making a prior from the monitor survey using the inverted baseline survey) with a double difference strategy (inverting the difference between the monitor and baseline data). We apply the methods to a subset of the Marmousi2 P-velocity model. Both strategies performed well and relatively good estimates of the monitor velocities and the time-lapse differences were obtained. For the estimated time-lapse differences, the double difference strategy gave the lowest errors.  相似文献   
56.
Hyaloclastites develop where lava interacts with water resulting in deposits that have a unique and often complex range of petrophysical properties. A combination of eruptive style and emplacement environment dictates the size, geometry and distribution of different hyaloclastite facies and their associated primary physical properties such as porosity, permeability and velocity. To date, links between the 3D facies variability within these systems and their petrophysical properties remain poorly understood. Hjörleifshöfði in southern Iceland presents an exceptional outcrop exposure of an emergent hyaloclastite sequence >1 km wide by >200 m high and enables an investigation of the distribution of the hyaloclastite deposits at seismic scale. Within this study we present a photogrammetry-based 3D model from part of this recent hyaloclastite delta and incorporate previous work by Watton et al. (Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2013, 250, 19) to undertake detailed facies interpretation and quantification. Laboratory petrophysical analyses were performed on 34 core plugs cut from key field facies samples, including P- and S-wave velocity, density, porosity and permeability at both ambient and confining pressure. Integration of the 3D model with the petrophysical data has enabled the production of pseudo-wireline logs and property distribution maps which demonstrate the variability of physical properties within hyaloclastite sequences at outcrop to seismic scale. Through comparison of our data with examples of older buried hyaloclastite sequences we demonstrate that the wide-ranging properties of young hyaloclastites become highly uniform in older sequences making their identification by remote geophysical methods for similar facies variations more challenging. Our study provides an improved understanding of the petrophysical property distribution within hyaloclastite sequences and forms a valuable step towards improving the understanding of similar subsurface sequences and their implications for imaging and fluid flow.  相似文献   
57.
Two nested clinoform set types of different scales and steepness are mapped and analysed from high-resolution seismic data. Restoration of post-depositional faulting reveals a persistent pattern of small-scale, high-angle clinoforms contained within platform-scale, low-angle clinothems, showing a combined overall progradational depositional system. The large clinoforms lack a well-defined platform edge, and show a gradual increase in dip from topset to foreset. A consistent recurring stratal pattern is evident from the architecture, and is considered a result of interplay between relative sea-level change and autocyclic switching of sediment delivery focal points that brought sediment to the platform edge. This un-interrupted succession records how intra-shelf platforms prograde. Quantitative clinoform analysis may assist in determining the most influential depositional factors. Post-depositional uplift and erosion requires restoration with re-burial to maximum burial depth. Backstripping, decompaction and isostatic correction was performed assuming a range of lithologic compositions, as no wells test the lithology. Nearby wells penetrate strata basinward of the clinoforms, proving mudstone content above 50%, which in turn guide restoration values. Typical restored platform heights are 250–300 m, with correspondingly sized platform-scale clinoform heights. Typical large-scale clinoform foreset dip values are 1.3°–2.4°. Small-scale clinothems are typically 100 m thick, with restored foreset dip angles at 4.4° - > 10°. The results suggest that intrashelf platform growth occurs in pulses interrupted by draping of strata over its clinoform profile. The resultant architecture comprises small-scale clinoforms nested within platform-scale clinothems.  相似文献   
58.
Climate change: impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper studies some impacts of climate change on electricity markets, focusing on three climate effects. First, demand for electricity is affected because of changes in the temperature. Second, changes in precipitation and temperature have impact on supply of hydro electric production through a shift in the inflow of water. Third, plant efficiency for thermal generation will decrease because the temperature of water used to cool equipment increases. To find the magnitude of these partial effects, as well as the overall effects, on Western European energy markets, we use the multi-market equilibrium model LIBEMOD. We find that each of the three partial effects changes the average electricity producer price by less than 2%, while the net effect is an increase of only 1%. The partial effects on total electricity supply are small, and the net effect is a decrease of 4%. The greatest effects are found for Nordic countries with a large market share for reservoir hydro. In these countries, annual production of electricity increases by 8%, reflecting more inflow of water, while net exports doubles. In addition, because of lower inflow in summer and higher in winter, the reservoir filling needed to transfer water from summer to winter is drastically reduced in the Nordic countries.  相似文献   
59.
The interplay between the onshore and offshore areas during the Last Glacial Maximum and the deglaciation of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet is poorly known. In this paper we present new results on the glacial morphology, stratigraphy and chronology of Andøya, and the glacial morphology of the nearby continental shelf off Lofoten–Vesterålen. The results were used to develop a new model for the timing and extent of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet in the study area during the local last glacial maximum (LLGM) (26 to 16 cal. ka BP). We subdivided the LLGM in this area into five glacial events: before 24, c. 23 to 22.2, 22.2 to c. 18.6, 18 to 17.5, and 16.9–16.3 cal. ka BP. The extent of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet during these various events was reconstructed for the shelf areas off Lofoten, Vesterålen and Troms. Icecaps survived in coastal areas of Vesterålen–Lofoten after the shelf was deglaciated and off Andøya ice flowed landwards from the shelf. During the LLGM the relative sea level was stable until 18.5 cal. ka BP, and thereafter there was a sea‐level drop on Andøya. Thus, relative sea level (i.e. a sea level rise) does not seem to be a driving mechanism for ice‐margin retreat in this area but the fall in sea level may have had some importance for the grounding episodes on the banks during deglaciation. The positions of the grounding zone wedges (GZWs) in the troughs are related to the morphology as they are often located where the troughs narrow.  相似文献   
60.
Analysis of shelf‐edge trajectories in prograding successions from offshore Norway, Brazil, Venezuela and West Africa reveals systematic changes in facies associations along the depositional dip. These changes occur in conjunction with the relative sea‐level change, sediment supply, inclination of the substratum and the relief of the margin. Flat and ascending trajectories generally result in an accumulation of fluvial and shallow marine sediments in the topset segment. Descending trajectories will generally result in erosion and bypass of the topset segment and deposition of basin floor fans. An investigation of incised valley fills reveals multiple stages of filling that can be linked to distinct phases of deepwater fan deposition and to the overall evolution of the margin. In the case of high sediment supply, like the Neogene Niger and Orinoco deltas, basin floor fans may develop systematically even under ascending trajectory styles. In traditional sequence stratigraphic thinking, this would imply the deposition of basin floor fans during a period of relative sea‐level highstand. Facies associations and sequence development also vary along the depositional strike. The width and gradient of the shelf and slope show considerable variations from south to north along the Brazilian continental margin during the Cenozoic. During the same time interval, the continental shelf may display high or low accommodation conditions, and the resulting stacking patterns and facies associations may be utilized to reconstruct palaeogeography and for prediction of lithology. Application of the trajectory concept thus reveals nuances in the rock record that would be lost by the application of traditional sequence stratigraphic work procedures. At the same time, the methodology simplifies the interpretation in that less importance is placed on interpretation and labelling of surface boundaries and systems tracts.  相似文献   
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