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Ocean Dynamics - Sea level rise (SLR) is causing acceleration in the frequency and duration of minor tidal flooding (often called “sunny-day” or “nuisance” flooding) along... 相似文献
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Recent studies show that in addition to wind and air pressure effects, a significant portion of the variability of coastal sea level (CSL) along the US East Coast can be attributed to non-local factors such as variations in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic circulation; these variations can cause unpredictable coastal flooding. The Florida Current transport (FCT) measurement across the Florida Straits monitors those variations, and thus, the study evaluated the potential of using the FCT as an indicator for anomalously high water level along the coast. Hourly water level data from 12 tide gauge stations over 12 years are used to construct records of maximum daily water levels (MDWL) that are compared with the daily FCT data. An empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach is used to divide the data into high-frequency modes (periods T < ～30 days), middle-frequency modes (～30 days < T < ～90 days), and low-frequency modes (～90 days < T < ～1 year). Two predictive measures are tested: FCT and FCT change (FCC). FCT is anti-correlated with MDWL in high-frequency modes but positively correlated with MDWL in low-frequency modes. FCC on the other hand is always anti-correlated with MDWL for all frequency bands, and the high water signal lags behind FCC for almost all stations, thus providing a potential predictive skill (i.e., whenever a weakening trend is detected in the FCT, anomalously high water is expected along the coast over the next few days). The MDWL-FCT correlation in the high-frequency modes is maximum in the lower Mid-Atlantic Bight, suggesting influence from the meandering Gulf Stream after it separates from the coast. However, the correlation in low-frequency modes is maximum in the South Atlantic Bight, suggesting impact from variations in the wind pattern over subtropical regions. The middle-frequency and low-frequency modes of the FCT seem to provide the best predictor for medium to large flooding events; it is estimated that ～10–25% of the sea level variability in those modes can be attributed to variations in the FCT. An example from Hurricane Joaquin (September–October, 2015) demonstrates how an offshore storm that never made landfall can cause a weakening of the FCT and unexpected high water level and flooding along the US East Coast. A regression-prediction model based on the MDWL-FCT correlation shows some skill in estimating high water levels during past storms; the water level prediction is more accurate for slow-moving and offshore storms than it is for fast-moving storms. The study can help to improve water level prediction since current storm surge models rely on local wind but may ignore remote forcing. 相似文献
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Prediction of areas prone to land degradation in agricultural catchments is a complex task. This is due to the difficulties encountered in data gathering over wide regions and in the translation of existing scientific knowledge to a quantitative and spatially explicit risk assessment system. This paper incorporates the use of remotely sensed data, terrain analysis and a multi‐criteria mechanism for evaluating risks of soil loss, water ponding, and sediment deposition in a mid‐size agricultural Mediterranean catchment, under 80 years of intensive cultivation. The research uses simulations to study the effect of topographic attributes, soil characteristics, vegetation cover, rainfall intensity and human activities on the three above‐mentioned processes. The results show that, from the methodological point of view, the integration of knowledge from several experts yields better predictive results than relying on a single expert, even the one found to be most consistent. Also, the use of a simple weighted linear combination was more useful than the more sophisticated computerized programming technique. From the phenomenological point of view, the increase in rainfall intensity and land‐use transformation from orchard to field‐crops has led to a significant increase in soil loss and sediment yield, while extreme changes in tillage direction have only yielded minor changes in water ponding. The developed system's predictive capabilities also show that the outcomes can be used as a basis for decisions on catchment management in regions of high environmental sensitivity. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The effect of cultivation method on erosion in agricultural catchments: integrating AHP in GIS environments 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 The cultivation method used in agricultural catchments can have a great effect on erosion processes; as such, determining the effects on form and degree is crucial. One commonly held hypothesis is that a shift to minimum tillage methods should reduce the rate of erosion. Here, we examine the effect of cultivation methods and environmental conditions on soil erosion risks in field crops and orchards in an agricultural catchment in northern Israel. The examination was conducted using AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and GIS (geographic information system)‐based computer simulations. Field validation of the simulations was conducted during the 2009–2010 winter season. The spatially explicit data on cultivation method, combined with environmental and climatic data, yielded an explanation of most of the variation in erosion risks in the catchment (kappa =0·93). Of the 10 criteria examined, the cultivation method and slope were the two variables with the greatest effect on increased soil erosion. Furthermore, soil loss risks were reduced substantially as a result of substituting conventional tillage with reduced tillage; substituting reduced tillage with conservation tillage; and changing the tillage direction to perpendicular to the direction of the slope. These results are reasonable in light of the modifications that mechanical tools cause in the soil structure, as observed in the penetration depth and the aggregate stability measurements used in this study. Despite the difficulty in collecting spatially explicit data on cultivation methods, we believe that it is of utmost importance to use such data to study erosion risks in agricultural catchments. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Failure of nonstructural components during an earthquake can lead to structure functionality loss, cause widespread property damage, and pose a life-safety threat to the occupants. Current code provisions for floor-anchored components aim to minimize the life safety threat by specifying lateral force demands and anchoring requirements. These code requirements are based on a simplified equation that does not fully consider the contribution of the attachment to the overall component dynamic response. Previous results from shaking-table tests of anchored components suggest that the component attachment is an important parameter that determines its dynamic properties. For this study, a nonstructural experimental model was attached via several attachment designs to a concrete slab and tested on a shaking table to evaluate this contribution. The attachments were dimensioned based on a capacity design approach, such that they would be the weakest element in the force path while providing a yielding mechanism. The attachment designs provide different plastic mechanisms that control the displacement ductility in the response of the component. This paper focuses on the contribution of the attachment to the dynamic response and seismic force demand on the component. The experimental results demonstrate that the selected attachment properties govern the boundary conditions of the nonstructural component and strongly influence its dynamic response. The more flexible attachments sustained large deformations, leading to tensile membrane action and enhanced tensile strength in the attachments. Consequently, the ductile attachments did not result in reduced seismic loads in the nonstructural components. 相似文献
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Eric P. Chassignet Hernan Arango David Dietrich Tal Ezer Michael Ghil Dale B. Haidvogel C. -C. Ma Avichal Mehra Afonso M. Paiva Ziv Sirkes 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2000,32(3-4)
The results of an intercomparison experiment performed with five numerical ocean models of different architecture are presented. While all models are able to simulate the large-scale characteristics of the North Atlantic circulation with a fair degree of realism, they also exhibit differences that can be attributed to the choices made in vertical coordinates, domain size, and boundary conditions. 相似文献
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Using a landform evolution model to study ephemeral gullying in agricultural fields: the effects of rainfall patterns on ephemeral gully dynamics 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Water driven soil erosion is a major cause of land degradation worldwide. Ephemeral gullies (EGs) are considered key contributors to agricultural catchment soil loss. Despite their importance, the parameters and drivers controlling EG dynamics have not been adequately quantified. Here we investigate the effects of rainfall characteristics on EGs, using the physically based landform evolution model (LEM) CAESAR‐Lisflood. An initial goal of this study was to test the feasibility of using a LEM to estimate EG dynamics based on an easily obtainable and moderate spatial resolution (2 × 2 m) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). EG evolution was simulated for two rainfall seasons in a 0.37 km2 agricultural plot situated in a semiarid catchment in central Israel. The 2014 rainfall season was used to calibrate the model and the 2015 season was used for validation. The model overall well predicted the EG network structure and average depth but tended to underestimate the EG length. The effects of rainfall characteristics on EG dynamics were investigated by comparing simulations employing seven rainfall scenarios. Four of these scenarios differ in their overall rainfall volume relative to observed precipitation (+20%, +10%, ?10%, ?20%). The remaining three scenarios vary in the temporal distribution of rainfall during each storm, allowing us to isolate the effect of rainfall intensity on EG evolution. The results show that: (1) EG dynamics strongly correlated with changes in rainfall volume; (2) small‐scale morphological behavior varies between rainfall scenarios, resulting in different meandering and connectivity variability; (3) EG evolution is divided into two main stages, an initial rapid development occurring after the first two weeks of the rainy season, followed by a stable development period; (4) a 12 mm h?1 intensity threshold was observed to initiate and, later, modify EGs; and (5) inner storm rainfall variability can have a considerable effect on EG evolution. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Tal Ezer 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(10):1259-1272
Tropical storms and hurricanes in the western North Atlantic Ocean can impact the US East Coast in several ways. Direct effects include storm surges, winds, waves, and precipitation and indirect effects include changes in ocean dynamics that consequently impact the coast. Hurricane Matthew [October, 2016] was chosen as a case study to demonstrate the interaction between an offshore storm, the Gulf Stream (GS) and coastal sea level. A regional numerical ocean model was used, to conduct sensitivity experiments with different surface forcing, using wind and heat flux data from an operational hurricane-ocean coupled forecast system. An additional experiment used the observed Florida Current (FC) transport during the hurricane as an inflow boundary condition. The experiments show that the hurricane caused a disruption in the GS flow that resulted in large spatial variations in temperatures with cooling of up to ~?4 °C by surface heat loss, but the interaction of the winds with the GS flow also caused some local warming near fronts and eddies (relative to simulations without a hurricane). A considerable weakening of the FC transport (~?30%) has been observed during the hurricane (a reduction of ~?10 Sv in 3 days; 1Sv?=?106 m3 s?1), so the impact of the FC was explored by the model. Unlike the abrupt and large wind-driven storm surge (up to 2 m water level change within 12 h in the South Atlantic Bight), the impact of the weakening GS on sea level is smaller but lasted for several days after the hurricane dissipated, as seen in both the model and altimeter data. These results can explain observations that show minor tidal flooding along long stretches of coasts for several days following passages of hurricanes. Further analysis showed the short-term impact of the hurricane winds on kinetic energy versus the long-term impact of the hurricane-induced mixing on potential energy, whereas several days are needed to reestablish the stratification and rebuild the strength of the GS to its pre-hurricane conditions. Understanding the interaction between storms, the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level can help to improve prediction of sea level rise and coastal flooding. 相似文献