Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Linus Magnusson  Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda  Susanna Corti  Franco Molteni  Tim Stockdale 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2393-2409

This study discusses and compares three different strategies used to deal with model error in seasonal and decadal forecasts. The strategies discussed are the so-called full initialisation, anomaly initialisation and flux correction. In the full initialisation the coupled model is initialised to a state close to the real-world attractor and after initialisation the model drifts towards its own attractor, giving rise to model bias. The anomaly initialisation aims to initialise the model close to its own attractor, by initialising only the anomalies. The flux correction strategy aims to keep the model trajectory close to the real-world attractor by adding empirical corrections. These three strategies have been implemented in the ECMWF coupled model, and are evaluated at seasonal and decadal time-scales. The practical implications of the different strategies are also discussed. Results show that full initialisation results in a clear model drift towards a colder climate. The anomaly initialisation is able to reduce the drift, by initialising around the model mean state. However, the erroneous model mean state results in degraded seasonal forecast skill. The best results on the seasonal time-scale are obtained using momentum-flux correction, mainly because it avoids the positive feedback responsible for a strong cold bias in the tropical Pacific. It is likely that these results are model dependent: the coupled model used here shows a strong cold bias in the Central Pacific, resulting from a positive coupled feedback between winds and SST. At decadal time-scales it is difficult to determine whether any of the strategies is superior to the others.  相似文献   

Mathematical modeling of earths dynamical systems: a primer,by Rudy Slingerland & Lee Kump. Princeton University Press,Princeton & Oxford, 2011. No of pages: 231.Price: US$30.95. ISBN 978‐0‐691‐14514‐3 (paperback).     

Tim Davies 《Geological Journal》2014,49(3):327-327

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Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle     

Tim Erbrecht  Wolfgang Lucht 《Carbon balance and management》2006,1(1):7-7

Background

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO₂ growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO₂ increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98.

Results

We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO₂ flux.

Conclusion

Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.  相似文献   

Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis     

Kevin D. Henry  Nathan J. Wood  Tim G. Frazier 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(3):1665-1687

Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.  相似文献   

ROSAT observations of Cepheus OB3: the discovery of low-mass stars     

Tim Naylor  A. C. Fabian 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,302(4):714-722

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Relevance of peat draining rivers in central Sumatra for the riverine input of dissolved organic carbon into the ocean   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Antje Baum  Tim Rixen  Joko Samiaji 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2007,73(3-4):563-570

Sources and discharges of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the central Sumatran river Siak were studied. DOC concentrations in the Siak ranged between 560 and 2594 μmol l⁻¹ and peak out after its confluence with the river Mandau. The Mandau drains part of the central Sumatran peatlands and can be characterized as a typical blackwater river due to its high DOC concentration, its dark brown-coloured, acidic water (pH 4.4–4.7) and its low concentration of total suspended matter (12–41 mg l⁻¹). The Mandau supplies about half of the DOC that enters the Siak Estuary where it mixes conservatively with ocean water. The DOC input from the Siak into the ocean was estimated to be 0.3 Tg C yr⁻¹. Extrapolated to entire Indonesia the data suggest a total Indonesian DOC export of 21 Tg yr⁻¹ representing 10% of the global riverine DOC input into the ocean.  相似文献   

A precipiton‐based approach to model hydro‐sedimentary hazards induced by large sediment supplies in alluvial fans          下载免费PDF全文

Thomas Croissant  Dimitri Lague  Philippe Davy  Tim Davies  Philippe Steer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(13):2054-2067

Mountain ranges are frequently subjected to mass wasting events triggered by storms or earthquakes and supply large volumes of sediment into river networks. Besides altering river dynamics, large sediment deliveries to alluvial fans are known to cause hydro‐sedimentary hazards such as flooding and river avulsion. Here we explore how the sediment supply history affects hydro‐sedimentary river and fan hazards, and how well can it be predicted given the uncertainties on boundary conditions. We use the 2D morphodynamic model Eros with a new 2D hydrodynamic model driven by a sequence of flood, a sediment entrainment/transport/deposition model and a bank erosion law. We first evaluate the model against a natural case: the 1999 Mount Adams rock avalanche and subsequent avulsion on the Poerua river fan (West Coast, New Zealand). By adjusting for the unknown sediment supply history, Eros predicts the evolution of the alluvial riverbed during the first post‐landslide stages within 30 cm. The model is subsequently used to infer how the sediment supply volume and rate control the fan aggradation patterns and associated hazards. Our results show that the total injected volume controls the overall levels of aggradation, but supply rates have a major control on the location of preferential deposition, avulsion and increased flooding risk. Fan re‐incision following exhaustion of the landslide‐derived sediment supply leads to sediment transfer and deposition downstream and poses similar, but delayed, hydro‐sedimentary hazards. Our results demonstrate that 2D morphodynamics models are able to capture the full range of hazards occurring in alluvial fans including river avulsion aggradation and floods. However, only ensemble simulations accounting for uncertainties in boundary conditions (e.g., discharge history, initial topography, grain size) as well as model realization (e.g., non‐linearities in hydro‐sedimentary processes) can be used to produce probabilistic hazards maps relevant for decision making. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Seasonality of stable isotope composition of atmospheric water input at the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro,Tanzania          下载免费PDF全文

Insa Otte  Florian Detsch  Adrian Gütlein  Martha Scholl  Ralf Kiese  Tim Appelhans  Thomas Nauss 《水文研究》2017,31(22):3932-3947

To understand the moisture regime at the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro, we analysed the isotopic variability of oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and hydrogen (δD) of rainfall, throughfall, and fog from a total of 2,140 samples collected weekly over 2 years at 9 study sites along an elevation transect ranging from 950 to 3,880 m above sea level. Precipitation in the Kilimanjaro tropical rainforests consists of a combination of rainfall, throughfall, and fog. We defined local meteoric water lines for all 3 precipitation types individually and the overall precipitation, δD_prec = 7.45 (±0.05) × δ¹⁸O_prec + 13.61 (±0.20), n  = 2,140, R ² = .91, p  < .001. We investigated the precipitation‐type‐specific stable isotope composition and analysed the effects of amount, altitude, and temperature. Aggregated annual mean values revealed isotope composition of rainfall as most depleted and fog water as most enriched in heavy isotopes at the highest elevation research site. We found an altitude effect of δ¹⁸O_rain = ?0.11‰ × 100 m^?1, which varied according to precipitation type and season. The relatively weak isotope or altitude gradient may reveal 2 different moisture sources in the research area: (a) local moisture recycling and (b) regional moisture sources. Generally, the seasonality of δ¹⁸O_rain values follows the bimodal rainfall distribution under the influences of south‐ and north‐easterly trade winds. These seasonal patterns of isotopic composition were linked to different regional moisture sources by analysing Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory backward trajectories. Seasonality of d excess values revealed evidence of enhanced moisture recycling after the onset of the rainy seasons. This comprehensive dataset is essential for further research using stable isotopes as a hydrological tracer of sources of precipitation that contribute to water resources of the Kilimanjaro region.  相似文献   

The fate of suspended sediment and particulate organic carbon in transit through the channels of a river catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Fred Worrall  Tim P. Burt  Nicholas J.K. Howden  Gregory R. Hancock  John Wainwright 《水文研究》2018,32(1):146-159

Particulate organic matter (POM) transiting through rivers could be lost to overbank storage, stored in‐channel, added to by erosion or autochthonous production, or turned over to release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere (either while in the water column or while stored in the channel). In the UK, a net loss of POM across catchments has been recorded, and the aim here was to investigate the balances of processes acting on the POM. This study considered records of suspended sediment and POM flux in comparison to stream flow, velocity, stream power, and residence time for the River Trent (English Midlands, 8,231 km²). We show that for the lower two thirds (106 km) of the River Trent, 2% is lost to overbank storage; 10% is lost to the atmosphere in the water column; and 31% is turned over while in temporary storage. Permanent in‐channel storage is negligible, and for the lower course of the river, material stored in‐channel will have a residence time of the order of hundreds of days between the last flood hydrograph of one winter and the first winter storm of the next winter (usually in the same calendar year). When considered at the scale of the UK, 1% POM in transit would be lost to overbank sedimentation; 5% turned over in the water column, and 14% turned over while in temporary storage. In the upper third of the study river channel, there is insufficient stream power to transport sediment and so in‐channel storage or in‐channel turnover over to the atmosphere dominate. The in‐channel processes of the River Trent do not conform to that expected for river channels as the headwaters are not eroding or transporting sediment. Therefore, the source of sediment must be lower down the channel network.  相似文献   

The geomorphology of the Anthropocene: emergence,status and implications          下载免费PDF全文

Antony G. Brown  Stephen Tooth  Joanna E. Bullard  David S. G. Thomas  Richard C. Chiverrell  Andrew J. Plater  Julian Murton  Varyl R. Thorndycraft  Paolo Tarolli  James Rose  John Wainwright  Peter Downs  Rolf Aalto 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(1):71-90

The Anthropocene is proposed as a new interval of geological time in which human influence on Earth and its geological record dominates over natural processes. A major challenge in demarcating the Anthropocene is that the balance between human‐influenced and natural processes varies over spatial and temporal scales owing to the inherent variability of both human activities (as associated with culture and modes of development) and natural drivers (e.g. tectonic activity and sea level variation). Against this backdrop, we consider how geomorphology might contribute towards the Anthropocene debate by focusing on human impact on aeolian, fluvial, cryospheric and coastal process domains, and how evidence of this impact is preserved in landforms and sedimentary records. We also consider the evidence for an explicitly anthropogenic geomorphology that includes artificial slopes and other human‐created landforms. This provides the basis for discussing the theoretical and practical contributions that geomorphology can make to defining an Anthropocene stratigraphy. It is clear that the relevance of the Anthropocene concept varies considerably amongst different branches of geomorphology, depending on the history of human actions in different process domains. For example, evidence of human dominance is more widespread in fluvial and coastal records than in aeolian and cryospheric records, so geomorphologically the Anthropocene would inevitably comprise a highly diachronous lower boundary. Even to identify this lower boundary, research would need to focus on the disambiguation of human effects on geomorphological and sedimentological signatures. This would require robust data, derived from a combination of modelling and new empirical work rather than an arbitrary ‘war of possible boundaries' associated with convenient, but disputed, ‘golden’ spikes. Rather than being drawn into stratigraphical debates, the primary concern of geomorphology should be with the investigation of processes and landform development, so providing the underpinning science for the study of this time of critical geological transition. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献