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31.
N. Elguindi A. Grundstein S. Bernardes U. Turuncoglu J. Feddema 《Climatic change》2014,122(4):523-538
A modified Thornthwaite Climate Classification is applied to a 32-member ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs in order to 1) evaluate model performance in the historical climate and 2) assess projected climate change at the end of the 21 s t century following two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This classification scheme differs from the well-known Köppen approach as it uses potential evapotranspiration for thermal conditions, a moisture index for moisture conditions, and has even intervals between climate classes. The multi-model ensemble (MME) reproduces the main spatial features of the global climate reasonably well, however, in many regions the climate types are too moist. Extreme climate types, such as those found in polar and desert regions, as well as the cool- and cold-wet types of eastern North America and the warm and cool-moist types found in the southern U.S., eastern South America, central Africa and Europe are reproduced best by the MME. In contrast, the cold-dry and cold-semiarid climate types characterizing much of the high northern latitudes and the warm-wet type found in parts of Indonesia and southeast Asia are poorly represented by the MME. Regionally, most models exhibit the same sign in moisture and thermal biases, varying only in magnitude. Substantial changes in climate types are projected in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Area coverage of torrid climate types expands by 11 % and 19 % in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections, respectively. Furthermore, a large portion of these areas in the tropics will experience thermal conditions which exceed the range of historical values and fall into a novel super torrid climate class. The greatest growth in moisture types in climate zones is among those with dry climates (moisture index values < 0) with increased areas of more than 8 % projected by the RCP8.5 MME. 相似文献
32.
Barış Önol Deniz Bozkurt Ufuk Utku Turuncoglu Omer Lutfi Sen H. Nuzhet Dalfes 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(7-8):1949-1965
In this study, human-induced climate change over the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region has been analyzed for the twenty-first century by performing regional climate model simulations forced with large-scale fields from three different global circulation models (GCMs). Climate projections have been produced with Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1FI and B1 scenarios, which provide greater diversity in climate information for future period. The gradual increases for temperature are widely apparent during the twenty-first century for each scenario simulation, but ECHAM5-driven simulation generally has a weaker signal for all seasons compared to CCSM3 simulations except for the Fertile Crescent. The contrast in future temperature change between the winter and summer seasons is very strong for CCSM3-A2-driven and HadCM3-A2-driven simulations over Carpathians and Balkans, 4–5 °C. In addition, winter runoff over mountainous region of Turkey, which feeds many river systems including the Euphrates and Tigris, increases in second half of the century since the snowmelt process accelerates where the elevation is higher than 1,500 m. Moreover, analysis of daily temperature outputs reveals that the gradual decrease in daily minimum temperature variability for January during the twenty-first century is apparent over Carpathians and Balkans. Analysis of daily precipitation extremes shows that positive trend is clear during the last two decades of the twenty-first century over Carpathians for both CCSM3-driven and ECHAM5-driven simulations. Multiple-GCM driven regional climate simulations contribute to the quantification of the range of climate change over a region by performing detailed comparisons between the simulations. 相似文献
33.
The attenuation of seismic waves reflects the elastic nature of the media within which the waves propagate. In this study, we calculate the Coda-Q(Q_c), frequency dependence(η), Vp/Vs and Poisson's(υ) ratios by using 2621 vertical component seismograms generated by 987 earthquakes recorded by 13 seismic stations in Eastern Anatolia, and creat a 2-D seismic tomographic Q_c model for the region. The obtained model provides significant information for exploring the boundaries of adjacent tectonic units within the upper crust and interpreting their dynamic characteristics. The 2-D Q_c model and the other parameters are consistent with the seismotectonic features of Eastern Anatolia. Highly heterogeneous Q_c values are observed in the study area dividing it into north-south directed bands of low and high attenuation. The highest η values were obtained beneath the northwestern and eastern parts of the study region. Clear, high and low υ values are obtained in the western and eastern parts of the study area, respectively. The spatial variations in the measured parameters are consistent with many geophysical observations including low Pn velocities, efficient Sn blockage, high heat flow, and widespread volcanism. Different upper crustal thicknesses and inhomogeneous stress distribution along the East and North Anatolian Fault Zones may also contribute to the observed heterogeneities. 相似文献
34.
Toxic effects of five commonly used pesticides on the biomass of a municipal activated sludge system were determined on the basis of the reduction in the oxygen uptake rate (OUR) and specific oxygen uptake rate (SOUR). Toxicity levels of the selected pesticides were determined by employing a modified OECD 209 (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) method which was performed as batch experiments using a respirometer. Copper sulphate (CuSO4 · 5 H2O), copper oxychloride (Cu2Cl(OH)3), copper calcium oxychloride (CaCu3Cl2(OH)6) as copper‐based pesticides and chlorsulphuron (C12H12ClN5O4S), 2,4‐dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4‐D) (C8H6Cl2O3) as synthetic organic pesticides were selected for the experiments. The EC50 values were determined to be 78, 249 and 281 mg/L for CuSO4 · 5 H2O, Cu2Cl(OH)3 and CaCu3Cl2(OH)6, respectively. Corresponding values for C12H12ClN5O4S and 2,4‐D were 860 and 3664 mg/L, respectively. Results indicated that toxicity effects of copper‐based pesticides were higher than that of synthetic organic pesticides. CuSO4 · 5 H2O was found to exert the highest toxicity among the copper‐based pesticides, whereas, C12H12ClN5O4S was determined to be the most toxic among the organic pesticides on activated sludge biomass. 相似文献