The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Keith E. Schilling  Philip W. Gassman  Catherine L. Kling  Todd Campbell  Manoj K. Jha  Calvin F. Wolter  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3314-3325

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model     

J. Baehr  K. Fröhlich  M. Botzet  D. I. V. Domeisen  L. Kornblueh  D. Notz  R. Piontek  H. Pohlmann  S. Tietsche  W. A. Müller 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(9-10):2723-2735

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A reconstruction of the palaeohydrological conditions of a flood‐plain: a multi‐proxy study from the Grabia River valley mire,central Poland          下载免费PDF全文

Dominik Pawłowski  Grzegorz Kowalewski  Krystyna Milecka  Mateusz Płóciennik  Michał Woszczyk  Tomasz Zieliński  Daniel Okupny  Wojciech Włodarski  Jacek Forysiak 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(3):543-562

This study investigated the Grabia River valley mire in central Poland to reconstruct its palaeoenvironmental conditions from the Younger Dryas to the present. We analysed sedimentological, biological and geochemical data from the palaeo‐oxbow lake and valley mire to identify the principal hydrological trends, especially episodes of high water level. During the Lateglacial and Holocene, the Grabia River had a meandering channel, and its hydraulic parameters and the channel dimensions changed in response to climatic oscillations and vegetation development. We identified phases of high flood intensity and high groundwater level that correlate with regional and supraregional climatic events. The frequency and timing of palaeohydroclimatic oscillations show strong similarities to records from other sites in Poland and the rest of Europe. We show that various analytical methods, namely, pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera, Chironomidae, sedimentological, geochemical and radiocarbon data, can be effective tools for reconstructing past hydroclimatic changes in palaeo‐oxbow lakes and investigating the effects of past climate changes on river environments. The high sensitivity of the biota, especially Cladocera, to changes in water level permits the reconstruction of palaeoecological changes, especially flood episodes that occurred in the river valley. In particular, the increase in the proportion of sediment‐associated Cladocera and pelagic taxa was closely correlated with floods. Through comparisons with the palaeobiological data, geochemical data allowed the identification of humid phases within the fen associated with a rising groundwater table, direct fluvial activity (floods) and alluvial deposition. We also discuss the limitations of palaeohydrological reconstructions based on these proxies, especially on fossil aquatic invertebrates.  相似文献   

Dynamic Brazilian Test of Rock Under Intermediate Strain Rate: Pendulum Hammer-Driven SHPB Test and Numerical Simulation     

W. C. Zhu  L. L. Niu  S. H. Li  Z. H. Xu 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(5):1867-1881

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An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions     

A. Bellucci  R. Haarsma  S. Gualdi  P. J. Athanasiadis  M. Caian  C. Cassou  E. Fernandez  A. Germe  J. Jungclaus  J. Kröger  D. Matei  W. Müller  H. Pohlmann  D. Salas y Melia  E. Sanchez  D. Smith  L. Terray  K. Wyser  S. Yang 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(9-10):2787-2806

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Start at zero: succession of benthic invertebrate assemblages in restored former sewage channels     

Caroline Winking  Armin W. Lorenz  Bernd Sures  Daniel Hering 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2016,78(4):683-694

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Energy partitioning over a semi‐arid shrubland in northern China          下载免费PDF全文

X. Jia  T. S. Zha  J. N. Gong  B. Wu  Y. Q. Zhang  S. G. Qin  G. P. Chen  W. Feng  S. Kellomäki  H. Peltola 《水文研究》2016,30(6):972-985

During the last decade, the widely distributed shrublands in northern China have shown significant signs of recovery from desertification, the result of widespread conservation practices. However, to support the current efforts in conservation, more knowledge is needed on surface energy partitioning and its biophysical controls. Using eddy‐covariance measurements made over a semi‐arid shrubland in northwest China in 2012, we examined how surface energy‐balance components vary on diurnal and seasonal scales, and how biophysical factors control bulk surface parameters and energy exchange. Sensible heat flux (H) exceeded latent heat flux (λE) during most of the year, resulting in an annual Bowen ratio (β, i.e. H/λE) of 2.0. λE exceeded H only in mid‐summer when frequent rainfall co‐occurred with the seasonal peak in leaf area index (LAI). Evapotranspiration reached a daily maximum of 3.3 mm day^?1, and summed to 283 mm yr^?1. The evaporative fraction (EF, i.e. λE/R_n), Priestley–Taylor coefficient (α), surface conductance (g_s) and decoupling coefficient (Ω) were all positively correlated with soil water content (SWC) and LAI. The direct enhancement of λE by high vapour pressure deficit (VPD) was buffered by a concurrent suppression of g_s. The g_s played a direct role in controlling EF and α by mediating the effects of LAI, SWC and VPD. Our results highlight the importance of adaptive plant responses to water scarcity in regulating ecosystem energy partitioning, and suggest an important role for revegetation in the reversal of desertification in semi‐arid areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework          下载免费PDF全文

Ype van der Velde  Nikki Vercauteren  Fernando Jaramillo  Stefan C. Dekker  Georgia Destouni  Steve W. Lyon 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4110-4118

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Linkage between acoustic parameters and seabed sediment properties in the south-western Baltic Sea     

Michael Endler  Rudolf Endler  Bernd Bobertz  Thomas Leipe  Helge W. Arz 《Geo-Marine Letters》2015,35(2):145-160

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Controls on metamorphic equilibration: the importance of intergranular solubilities mediated by fluid composition          下载免费PDF全文

W. D. Carlson  J. D. Hixon  J. M. Garber  R. J. Bodnar 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2015,33(2):123-146

A dramatic demonstration of the role of intergranular solubility in promoting chemical equilibration during metamorphism is found in the unusual zoning of garnet in pelitic schist exposed at Harpswell Neck, Maine, USA. Many garnet crystals have irregular, patchy distributions of Mn, Cr, Fe and Mg in their inclusion‐rich interiors, transitioning to smooth, concentric zoning in their inclusion‐poor outer rims; in contrast, zoning of Ca and Y is comparatively smooth and concentric throughout. We re‐assess the disputed origin of these zoning features by examining garnet growth in the context of the thermal and structural history of the rocks, and by evaluating the record of fluid–rock interaction revealed in outcrop‐scale veining and fluid‐inclusion assemblages. The transition in the character of garnet zoning correlates with the onset of a synkinematic, simple‐shear‐dominated phase of garnet growth and with a shift in the composition of the intergranular fluid from CO₂‐rich to H₂O‐rich. Compositional variations in garnet are therefore best explained by a two‐stage growth history in which intergranular diffusive fluxes reflect differences in the concentration of dissolved species in these two contrasting fluids. Interiors of garnet crystals grew in the presence of a CO₂‐rich fluid, in which limited solubility for Mn and Cr (and perhaps Fe and Mg) produced patchy disequilibrium overprint zoning, while appreciable solubility for Ca and Y permitted their rock‐wide equilibration. Rims grew in the presence of an H₂O‐rich fluid, in which high intergranular concentrations for all elements except Cr enabled diffusion over length scales sufficient for rock‐wide equilibration. This striking example of partial chemical equilibrium during reaction and porphyroblast growth implies that thermal effects may commonly be subsidiary in importance to solubilities in the intergranular medium as determinants of length scales for metamorphic equilibration.  相似文献