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801.
In western Bohemia, the Drahotín (gabbro-diorite) and Mutěnín (gabbronorite-diorite-syenite) intrusions show different origins and patterns of geochemical evolution. Parental magmas of the Drahotín intrusion were derived predominantly from enriched mantle sources, and the melts have undergone a significant degree of assimilation-fractional crystallization (AFC) during their ascent and/or emplacement into the crust. In contrast, the compositional variation of the complex Mutěnín intrusion cannot be explained by simple AFC processes, but more likely reflects the involvement of several parental magmas. The gabbronorite was derived from a depleted mantle source, whereas the diorite/syenite stem from a mixed mantle-crust reservoir. The contrasting evolution of the Drahotín and Mutěnín intrusions may be due to their melt derivation and magma emplacement under different tectonothermal regimes at different times.  相似文献   
802.
Avalanches pose a serious threat to recreational backcountry travelers in mountainous terrain. This study explores how the three main amateur user groups of avalanche terrain in western Canada (backcountry skiers, out-of-bound skiers, and snowmobile riders) balance recreational goals with safety concerns when choosing backcountry destinations under varying avalanche conditions. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE), a stated preference technique, the study first examines the strengths and weaknesses in the decision process of the three amateur groups by comparing their responses with the choice patterns of professional mountain guides. The results show that the decision-making strategies employed by the respective amateur groups vary considerably in their level of complexity and the degree to which avalanche safety considerations are incorporated. Second, we examine the effects of a decision aid that preprocesses the most crucial pieces of avalanche hazard information on the decision preferences of the amateur groups in the DCE. The results show that a relatively simple decision aid can influence the decision-making process considerably and steer users towards more avalanche hazard sensitive behaviour.  相似文献   
803.
Scaling Issues in Forest Succession Modelling   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
This paper reviews scaling issues in forest succession modelling, focusing on forest gap models. Two modes of scaling are distinguished: (1) implicit scaling, i.e. taking scale-dependent features into account while developing model equations, and (2) explicit scaling, i.e. using procedures that typically involve numerical simulation to scale up the response of a local model in space and/or time. Special attention is paid to spatial upscaling methods, and downscaling is covered with respect to deriving scenarios of climatic change to drive gap models in impact assessments. When examining the equations used to represent ecological processes in forest gap models, it becomes evident that implicit scaling is relevant, but has not always been fully taken into consideration. A categorization from the literature is used to distinguish four methods for explicit upscaling of ecological models in space: (1) Lumping, (2) Direct extrapolation, (3) Extrapolation by expected value, and (4) Explicit integration. Examples from gap model studies are used to elaborate the potential and limitations of these methods, showing that upscaling to areas as large as 3000 km2 is possible, given that there are no significant disturbances such as fires or insect outbreaks at the landscape scale. Regarding temporal upscaling, we find that it is important to consider migrational lags, i.e. limited availability of propagules, if one wants to assess the transient behaviour of forests in a changing climate, specifically with respect to carbon storage and the associated feedbacks to the atmospheric CO2 content. Regarding downscaling, the ecological effects of different climate scenarios for the year 2100 were compared at a range of sites in central Europe. The derivation of the scenarios is based on (1) imposing GCM grid-cell average changes of temperature and precipitation on the local weather records; (2) a qualitative downscaling technique applied by the IPCC for central and southern Europe; and (3) statistical downscaling relating large-scale circulation patterns to local weather records. Widely different forest compositions may be obtained depending on the local climate scenario, suggesting that the downscaling issue is quite important for assessments of the ecological impacts of climatic change on forests.  相似文献   
804.
Percolation theory provides a starting point for models for the movement of organisms in fragmented landscapes. We simulated six general rules for movement on three general landscape patterns with different degrees of habitat fragmentation. Fragmentation pattern affects migration success. Organisms moving within habitat patches are restricted by fragmentation, but the response is less abrupt as one moves from random to hierarchical to fractal landscapes, respectively. Success for organisms moving along edges is more strongly differentiated by landscape pattern. Success and speed are usually directly related, but indirect relations may indicate rare but efficient pathways or cul-de-sacs. We propose that general rules can be applied to the identification of landscapes near critical levels of fragmentation that will respond sensitively to increases in fragmentation or efforts at restoration.  相似文献   
805.
High resolution climate simulations over the Arctic   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The regional atmospheric climate model HIRHAM has been applied to the Arctic. Simulations for the whole year 1990 and for an ensemble of winter months (January of 1985-1995) have been performed. The comparison of the simulations with observational data analyses shows that the general spatial patterns are in good agreement with the data, in both the vertical structure and the annual cycle. For an additional validation of the model results, a multivariate classification of large-scale circulation patterns has been applied to the January ensemble model simulations.  相似文献   
806.
Downhole monitoring with fibre-optic Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) systems offers unprecedented spatial resolution. At the same time, costs are reduced since repeated wireline surveys can be replaced by the permanent installation of comparatively cheap fibre cables. However, the single component nature of fibre data requires novel approaches when designing a monitoring project such as cross-well seismics. At the example of the shallow CO2 injection test site in Svelvik, Norway, we model the evolution of velocity changes during CO2 injection based on rock physics theory. Different cross-well seismic design scenarios are then considered to evaluate the best design and the limits of this method to detect containment breach. We present a series of evaluation tools to compare the effect of different well spacings for cross-well seismic tomography. In addition to travel-times, we also consider characteristic amplitude changes along the fibre unique to DAS strain measurements, which might add a constraint to the inversion. We also compare the effect of using helical fibres instead of classical straight fibres. We thus present a toolbox to evaluate and compare different monitoring design options for fibre optic downhole installations for cross-well monitoring.  相似文献   
807.
洪水风险=灾害事件×暴露程度×脆弱程度   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Wolfgang KRON 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):190-204
世界上,洪水可能是造成损失最大的自然灾害.世界上没有哪个地区不受到洪水的威助、由于洪灾风险是灾害事件、洪泛区财产遭遇风险的程度,以及它们的脆弱性的函数,所以灾害损失的增长与上述各个方面的变化都有关.防洪措施可以减少灾害事件的频率,恰当的预防措施也能显著降低财产风险.然而除了公共措施和私人措施外,在减少私人、企业、甚至整个社会的风险方面,保险发挥着关键作用.近年来,对洪水保险的需求日益增长,促使保险公司必须采取适当的解决方案.与此同时,至关重要的是,保险公司应当清楚在极端情况下他们自己可能承担的最大损失.  相似文献   
808.
In the spawning environment of salmonids, the quality of the intergravel flow is an essential abiotic requirement for the survival success of incubated embryos. As one of the most frequently investigated anthropogenic environmental impacts, the enhanced mobilization of fine sediments (<1 mm) and their entry into riverine ecosystems is considered as a major cause for the degradation of a variety of biological processes and habitats, including the spawning habitats of salmonids. In catchments draining crystalline bedrock, however, like the Bohemian Massif in the northern part of Austria, the excessive loading of river channels with coarse sand and fine gravel sediments (D = 1–10 mm) and less cohesive than fines is common as a consequence of altered catchment land use. Here, far less understanding exists of the mechanism and the possible implications of coarse sand infiltration on the functioning of the intergravel flow in salmonid redds. To investigate the intergravel flow hydraulics in response to coarse sand infiltration (D50 = 2 mm) in brown trout spawning redds (Salmo trutta fario ) under controlled conditions, a laboratory flume experiment with three infiltration scenarios was conducted: (1) no infiltration; (2) segmental infiltration; and (3) full section infiltration. A more than two times drop in the average intergravel flow velocity was documented from scenario 1 (5.85 cms?1) to scenario 2 (2.53 cms?1) and another clear reduction was seen from scenario 2 (2.53 cms?1) to scenario 3 (1.61 cms?1). Moreover, in scenario 3, a clear reduction of the intergravel flow distance traveled was observed. Based on the findings we conclude that future considerations regarding the sustainable catchment management of salmonid fisheries should include programs to reduce not only the excessive entry of fines, but, in the relevant catchments, also the entry of excessive coarse sand into the riverine ecosystem. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
809.
The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
810.
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