Knowledge gaps in our perceptual model of Great Britain's hydrology     

Thorsten Wagener  Simon J. Dadson  David M. Hannah  Gemma Coxon  Keith Beven  John P. Bloomfield  Wouter Buytaert  Hannah Cloke  Paul Bates  Joseph Holden  Louise Parry  Rob Lamb  Nick A. Chappell  Matthew Fry  Gareth Old 《水文研究》2021,35(7):e14288

There is a no lack of significant open questions in the field of hydrology. How will hydrological connectivity between freshwater bodies be altered by future human alterations to the hydrological cycle? Where does water go when it rains? Or what is the future space–time variability of flood and drought events? However, the answers to these questions will vary with location due to the specific and often poorly understood local boundary conditions and system properties that control the functional behaviour of a catchment or any other hydrologic control volume. We suggest that an open, shared and evolving perceptual model of a region's hydrology is critical to tailor our science questions, as it would be for any other study domain from the plot to the continental scale. In this opinion piece, we begin to discuss the elements of and point out some knowledge gaps in the perceptual model of the terrestrial water cycle of Great Britain. We discuss six major knowledge gaps and propose four key ways to reduce them. While the specific knowledge gaps in our perceptual model do not necessarily transfer to other places, we believe that the development of such perceptual models should be at the core of the debate for all hydrologic communities, and we encourage others to have a similar debate for their hydrologic domain.  相似文献   

Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia     

Alejandro Dussaillant J.  Wouter Buytaert  Claudio Meier  Fabián Espinoza 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1530-1542

Abstract

The Baker basin (27 000 km²) is located in one of the most pristine and remote areas of the planet. Its hydrological regime is poised to undergo dramatic changes in the near future due to hydropower development and climate change. The basin contains the second-largest lake in South America, and part of a major icefield. This study documents the natural baseline of the Baker River basin, discusses the main hydrological modes and analyses the potential for sustainable management. Annual precipitation varies several-fold from the eastern Patagonian steppes to the North Patagonian Icefield. The westernmost sub-basins are strongly governed by glacier melt with a peak discharge in the austral summer (January–March). The easternmost sub-basins have a much more seasonal response governed by quicker snowmelt in spring (November–December), while they exhibit low flows typical for semi-arid regions during summer and autumn. Topography, vegetation and wetlands may also influence streamflow. The strong spatio-temporal gradients and variability highlight the need for further monitoring, particularly in the headwaters, especially given the severe changes these basins are expected to undergo. The great diversity of hydrological controls and climate change pose significant challenges for hydrological prediction and management.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Dussaillant, J.A., Buytaert, W., Meier, C., and Espinoza, F. 2012. Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1530–1542.  相似文献   

Modelling sediment dynamics due to hillslope–river interactions: incorporating fluvial behaviour in landscape evolution model LAPSUS     

Jantiene E. M. Baartman  Wouter van Gorp  Arnaud J. A. M. Temme  Jeroen M. Schoorl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2012,37(9):923-935

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the three‐dimensional development of landscapes over time. Different LEMs have different foci, e.g. erosional behaviour, river dynamics, the fluvial domain, hillslopes or a combination. LEM LAPSUS is a relatively simple cellular model operating on timescales of centuries to millennia and using annual timesteps that has had a hillslope focus. Our objective was to incorporate fluvial behaviour in LAPSUS without changing the existing model equations. The model should be able to reproduce alternating aggradation and incision in the floodplains of catchments, depending on simulated conditions. Testing was done using an artificial digital elevation model (DEM) and a demonstration of the ability for fluvial simulation was performed for a real landscape (Torrealvilla catchment, southeast Spain). Model equations to calculate sediment dynamics and water routing were similar for both hillslope and fluvial conditions, but different parameter values were used for these domains, defined based on annual discharge. Parameters changing between the domains are convergence factor p, which is used in the multiple flow algorithm to route water, and discharge and gradient exponents m and n, used in transport capacity calculations. Erodibility and ‘sedimentability’ factors K and P were changed between cold (little vegetation, high erodibility) and warm conditions (more vegetation, lower erodibility). Results show that the adapted parameters reproduced alternating aggradation – due to divergent flow in the floodplain and sediment supply under cold conditions – and incision due to reduced sediment supply and resulting clean water erosion during simulated warm conditions. The simulated results are due to interactions between hillslopes and floodplains, as the former provide the sediments that are deposited in the latter. Similar behaviour was demonstrated when using the real DEM. Sensitivity and resolution analysis showed that the model is sensitive to changes in m, n and p and that model behaviour is influenced by DEM resolution. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impacts of land use on the hydrological response of tropical Andean catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Boris F. Ochoa‐Tocachi  Wouter Buytaert  Bert De Bièvre  Rolando Célleri  Patricio Crespo  Marcos Villacís  Carlos A. Llerena  Luis Acosta  Mauricio Villazón  Mario Guallpa  Junior Gil‐Ríos  Paola Fuentes  Dimas Olaya  Paúl Viñas  Gerver Rojas  Sandro Arias 《水文研究》2016,30(22):4074-4089

Changes in land use and land cover are major drivers of hydrological alteration in the tropical Andes. However, quantifying their impacts is fraught with difficulties because of the extreme diversity in meteorological boundary conditions, which contrasts strongly with the lack of knowledge about local hydrological processes. Although local studies have reduced data scarcity in certain regions, the complexity of the tropical Andes poses a big challenge to regional hydrological prediction. This study analyses data generated from a participatory monitoring network of 25 headwater catchments covering three of the major Andean biomes (páramo, jalca and puna) and links their hydrological responses to main types of human interventions (cultivation, afforestation and grazing). A paired catchment setup was implemented to evaluate the impacts of change using a ‘trading space‐for‐time’ approach. Catchments were selected based on regional representativeness and contrasting land use types. Precipitation and discharge have been monitored and analysed at high temporal resolution for a time period between 1 and 5 years. The observed catchment responses clearly reflect the extraordinarily wide spectrum of hydrological processes of the tropical Andes. They range from perennially humid páramos in Ecuador and northern Peru with extremely large specific discharge and baseflows, to highly seasonal, flashy catchments in the drier punas of southern Peru and Bolivia. The impacts of land use are similarly diverse and their magnitudes are a function of catchment properties, original and replacement vegetation and management type. Cultivation and afforestation consistently affect the entire range of discharges, particularly low flows. The impacts of grazing are more variable but have the largest effect on the catchment hydrological regulation. Overall, anthropogenic interventions result in increased streamflow variability and significant reductions in catchment regulation capacity and water yield, irrespective of the hydrological properties of the original biome. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Hydrological Processes. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Using postglacial sea level, crustal velocities and gravity-rate-of-change to constrain the influence of thermal effects on mantle lateral heterogeneities   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hansheng Wang  Patrick Wu  Wouter van der Wal   《Journal of Geodynamics》2008,46(3-5):104

Lateral heterogeneities in the mantle can be caused by thermal, chemical and non-isotropic pre-stress effects. Here, we investigate the possibility of using observations of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process to constrain the thermal contribution to lateral variations in mantle viscosity. In particular, global historic relative sea level, GPS in Laurentide and Fennoscandia, altimetry together with tide-gauge data in the Great Lakes area, and GRACE data in Laurentide are used. The lateral viscosity perturbations are inferred from the seismic tomography model S20A by inserting the scaling factor β to determine the contribution of thermal effects versus compositional heterogeneity and non-isotropic pre-stress effects on lateral heterogeneity in mantle viscosity. When β = 1, lateral velocity variations are caused by thermal effects alone. With β < 1, the contribution of thermal effect decreases, so that for β = 0, there is no lateral viscosity variation and the Earth is laterally homogeneous. These lateral viscosity variations are superposed on four different reference models which differ significantly in the lower mantle viscosity. The Coupled Laplace Finite Element method is used to predict the GIA response on a spherical, self-gravitating, compressible, viscoelastic Earth with self-gravitating oceans, induced by the ICE-4G deglaciation model.Results show that the effect of β on uplift rates and gravity rate-of-change is not simple and involves the trade-off between the contribution of lateral viscosity variations in the transition zone and in the lower mantle. Models with small viscosity contrast in the lower mantle cannot explain the observed uplift rates in Laurentide and Fennoscandia. However, the RF3S20 model with a reference viscosity profile simplified from Peltier's VM2 with the value of β around 0.2–0.4 is found to explain most of the global RSL data, the uplift rates in Laurentide and Fennoscandia and the BIFROST horizontal velocity data. In addition, the changes in GIA signals caused by changes in the value of β are large enough to be detected by the data, although uncertainty in other parameters in the GIA models still exists. This may encourage us to further utilize GIA observations to constrain the thermal effect on mantle lateral heterogeneity as geodetic and satellite gravity measurements are improved.  相似文献   

A need for incentivizing field hydrology,especially in an era of open data: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*     

Scott T. Allen  Wouter R. Berghuijs 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(8):1262-1265

The sharing of data and collection of new data are both essential, but they are not inherently complementary. When data are openly available, researchers may be motivated to use those data rather than collect more because field work has costs and risks. The competitive advantage to those who do not put resources towards fieldwork may discourage field hydrology. Allocating efforts towards generating field data, which benefits hydrological sciences, is not necessarily best for individual hydrologists, especially in an era of open data. The objective of this work is to open a conversation on whether individuals’ best interests may contrast with the community’s desire for new observations. If the community wants new field observations, there is a need to consider the shifting balance of incentives and disincentives for pursuing field studies in hydrology.  相似文献   

The Surface Albedo Of The Vatnajökull Ice Cap, Iceland: A Comparison Between Satellite-Derived And Ground-Based Measurements   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Carleen H. Reijmer  Wouter H. Knap  Johannes Oerlemans 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,92(1):123-143

The temporal and spatial variations in the surface albedo of the Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, are investigated. A time series of the surface albedo is composed for the summer of 1996 using satellite radiance measurements from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). This time series is compared with ground measurements carried out during a glacio-meteorological experiment during the same summer on the ice cap. The AVHRR is able to reproduce the development in time of the surface albedo fairly well. The large systematic differences found for some of the stations on the ice are attributed to sub-pixel-scale variations in the albedo. An attempt is made to confirm this hypothesis using satellite radiance measurements carried out by the Thematic Mapper (TM) and measurements made with a portable albedometer. The TM has a pixel size of 30 × 30 m whereas the pixel size of the AVHRR is 1 × 1 km. Although the TM measurements show greater variability in the albedo than do the AVHRR measurements, the large systematic difference remains. Measurements with the portable albedometer show a large spread in the albedo at sites with large systematic differences. This implies that the scale of the albedo variations is smaller than the scale of the AVHRR and TM pixels.  相似文献   

Scale aspects of groundwater flow and transport systems   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Wouter Zijl 《Hydrogeology Journal》1999,7(1):139-150

Flow-system analysis is based on the concept of hierarchical groundwater flow systems. The topography of the water table, which is strongly related to the topography of the land surface, is a major factor in the hierarchical nesting of gravity-driven groundwater flow, resulting in flow systems of different orders of magnitude in lateral extent and depth of penetration. The concept of flow systems is extremely useful in the analysis of spatial and temporal scales and their mutual relationships. Basic equations on the laboratory scale are extended to larger, regional scales. Making use of Fourier analysis further develops Tóth's original idea of topography-driven flow systems. In this way, the different spatial scales of the water table are separated in a natural way, leading to a simple expression for the penetration depth of a flow system. This decomposition leads also to the relationship between spatial and temporal scales. Analogous to flow systems, water bodies with different water quality may be called 'transport systems.' Field studies, numerical micro-scale modeling over macro-scale domains, and stochastic dispersion theory indicate that between systems with steady transport, the interfaces are relatively thin. The interfaces are much thinner than the relatively large mixing zones predicted by the conventional engineering approach to macrodispersion, in which relatively large, time-independent macrodispersion lengths are applied. A relatively simple alternative engineering approach is presented. For macrodispersion of propagating solute plumes, the alternative dispersion term gives the same results as the conventional engineering approach and gives correct results for steady-state transport.  相似文献   

Models as multiple working hypotheses: hydrological simulation of tropical alpine wetlands   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wouter Buytaert  Keith Beven 《水文研究》2011,25(11):1784-1799

Tropical alpine grasslands, locally known as páramos, are the water towers of the northern Andes. They are an essential water source for drinking water, irrigation schemes and hydropower plants. But despite their high socio‐economic relevance, their hydrological processes are very poorly understood. Since environmental change, ranging from small scale land‐use changes to global climate change, is expected to have a strong impact on the hydrological behaviour, a better understanding and hydrological prediction are urgently needed. In this paper, we apply a set of nine hydrological models of different complexity to a small, well monitored upland catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes. The models represent different hypotheses on the hydrological functioning of the páramo ecosystem at catchment scale. Interpretation of the results of the model prediction and uncertainty analysis of the model parameters reveals important insights in the evapotranspiration, surface runoff generation and base flow in the páramo. However, problems with boundary conditions, particularly spatial variability of precipitation, pose serious constraints on the differentiation between model representations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts  W.J. Wouter Botzen 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):1045-1060

Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk through undertaking damage mitigation measures. However, the uncertainty about the development of future flood risk in the face of climate and socio-economic change may complicate insurers’ rate-setting of long-term contracts. This issue has been examined in this study by estimating the effects of these changes on flood risk and pricing flood insurance premiums of short- and long-term flood insurance contracts in all (53) dike-ring areas in the Netherlands. A broad range of simulations with hydrological and flood damage models are used to estimate the future development of flood risk and premiums. In addition, the long-term development of insurance funds is estimated with a spatial “Climate Risk Insurance Model (CRIM)” for a private insurance arrangement and for a ‘three-layered’ public-private insurance program. The estimation of flood insurance premiums of long-term insurance contracts reveals fundamental problems. One is that there is an incentive for either the consumer or the insurer to prefer short-term rather than long-term contracts in the face of climate-related uncertainty. Therefore, it seems advisable to examine the introduction of one-year flood insurance contracts in the Netherlands, at least until the large uncertainties with climate and socio-economic change on flood risk have been resolved. The estimations performed with the Climate Risk Insurance Model indicate that a private insurance fund could have difficulties with building up enough financial reserves to pay for flood damage, while the layered public-private insurance scheme is more robust.  相似文献