Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment,Paraíba,Brazil   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

da Silva  Richarde Marques  Santos  Celso Augusto Guimarães  da Costa Silva  Jorge Flávio Cazé Braga  Silva  Alexandro Medeiros  Brasil Neto  Reginaldo Moura 《Natural Hazards》2020,102(3):829-849

Natural Hazards - The main goals of this study are to better understand the spatial and temporal variabilities in rainfall and to identify rainfall trends and erosivity for the period from 1963 to...  相似文献   

Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds     

Krocak  Makenzie J.  Ernst  Sean  Allan  Jinan N.  Wehde  Wesley  Ripberger  Joseph T.  Silva  Carol L.  Jenkins-Smith  Hank C. 《Natural Hazards》2020,102(3):1351-1368

When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service.

  相似文献   

Short-time scale variation of phytoplankton succession in Lisbon bay (Portugal) as revealed by microscopy cell counts and HPLC pigment analysis     

A. Silva  C.R. Mendes  S. Palma  V. Brotas 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008

The phytoplankton distribution and composition in Lisbon bay was studied, at a short time scale based on a weekly sampling, during one year (April 2004 – May 2005), using microscopic examination and pigment analysis with high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). This work is a contribution to the knowledge on species succession and ecology of coastal communities. The frequency of the sampling permitted monitoring peak blooming and decaying, a process which frequently occurred within 1 –2 weeks.  相似文献   

Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models     

Ana M. Nobre  João G. Ferreira  João P. Nunes  Xiaojun Yan  Suzanne Bricker  Richard Corner  Steve Groom  Haifeng Gu  Anthony J.S. Hawkins  Rory Hutson  Dongzhao Lan  João D. Lencart e Silva  Philip Pascoe  Trevor Telfer  Xuelei Zhang  Mingyuan Zhu 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%–28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of coastal management regulation, for instance in the implementation of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive.  相似文献   

Analytical approximate wave form for asymmetric waves   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tiago Abreu  Paulo A. Silva  Francisco Sancho  André Temperville 《Coastal Engineering》2010

A simple analytical formulation that reproduces a skewed, nonlinear near-bed wave orbital velocity is presented. It contains four free parameters, where two are solely related to the velocity and acceleration skewnesses. The equation is compared with other models and is validated against field and laboratory experiments. The results reveal that it can simulate a wide range of nonlinear wave shapes, reproducing satisfactorily the measured nonlinear wave particle velocity. Also, the new expression overcomes some limitations of the other models. The new formulation is therefore capable of being used in many engineering applications that require the use of representative wave forms.  相似文献   

Analyzing the spatial interactions between rainfall levels and flooding prediction in São Paulo     

Wagner da Silva Billa  Leonardo Bacelar Lima Santos  Rogério Galante Negri 《Transactions in GIS》2023,27(8):2159-2174

Rainfall is one of the primary triggers for many geological and hydrological natural disasters. While the geological events are related to mass movements in land collapse due to waterlogging, the hydrological ones are usually assigned to runoff or flooding. Studies in the literature propose predicting mass movement events as a function of accumulated rainfall levels recorded at distinct periods. According to these approaches, a two-dimensional rainfall levels feature space is segmented into the occurrence and non-occurrence decision regions by an empirical critical curve (CC). Although this scheme may easily be extended to other purposes and applications, studies in the literature need to discuss its use for flooding prediction. In light of this motivation, the present study is unfolded in (1) verifying that defining CCs in the rainfall levels feature space is a practical approach for flooding prediction and (2) analyzing how geospatial components interact with rainfall levels and flooding prediction. A database containing the rainfall levels recorded for flooding and non-flooding events in São Paulo city, Brazil, regarding the period 2015–2016, was considered in this study. The results indicate good accuracy for flooding prediction using only partial rain, which can be improved by adding physical characteristics of the flooding locations, demonstrating a direct correlation with spatial interactions, and rainfall levels.  相似文献   

Vertical deformation partitioning across a collapsing large and hot orogen     

F. A. Temporim  Ricardo Ivan Ferreirae da Trindade  Marcos Egydio-Silva  Tiago Valim Angelo  Eric Tohver  Caroline Cibele Soares  Lucas Pequeno Gouvêa  Julio Cesar Mendes  Silvia Regina Medeiros  Antônio Carlos Pedrosa-Soares  Gabriel Gomes Silva 《地学学报》2023,35(1):23-31

Featuring 3 000-km-long large and hot orogen, the Mantiqueira Province provides a rare opportunity to study the process of gravitational collapse at mid to deep crustal levels. Distinct but contemporary (~500 Ma) post-collisional intrusions show structures and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) fabrics related to their emplacements, recording different flow patterns. In southern deep-seated intrusions, ellipsoidal-shaped roots with gabbroic-to-hybrid cores surrounded by granitic rocks show concentric patterns of AMS fabrics that cut across the NE-trending regional foliation. In contrast, northern intrusions, exposed as the upper sections of batholith-size bodies of coarse-grained granite emplaced at the shallow to mid-crust, show general NS-trending magnetic fabrics roughly parallel to strike of the orogen and the regional foliation of host rocks. These contrasting magnetic patterns from shallow to deeper crust suggest vertical magma migration from the overthickened orogenic core to be emplaced across its thinner stretched flanks during the gravitational collapse of the orogenic edifice.  相似文献   

Paleoenvironmental dynamics in central-eastern Brazil during the last 23 000 years: tropical peatland record in the Cerrado biome     

Camila Rodrigues Costa  Cynthia Fernandes Pinto da Luz  Ingrid Horák-Terra  Plínio Barbosa de Camargo  Uidemar Morais Barral  Carlos Victor Mendonça-Filho  Thamyres Sabrina Gonçalves  Alexandre Christófaro Silva 《第四纪科学杂志》2023,38(1):61-75

The Cerrado biome is the second largest in Brazil, but the evolution of the Cerrado during the late Quaternary is not yet fully known. This study identifies paleoenvironmental changes during the last 23 000 years, based on a tropical mountain peatland record, in the Serra do Espinhaço Meridional in central-eastern Brazil. A multi-proxy approach was used that involved palynological analysis, stable isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N), geochemistry, radiocarbon dating and multivariate statistics derived from a peatland core from Rio Preto (Minas Gerais state). The study reveals a very humid and cold climate during the late Pleistocene, with an increase in temperature and decrease in humidity at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. During this period there was strong instability in the landscape (episodes of erosion). At the beginning of the Holocene there was a reduction in humidity with greater landscape stability. The current sub-humid climatic conditions seem to have been established in the mid-/late Holocene, with periods of landscape instability. Our findings agree with other Cerrado records that contradict previously established hypotheses, such as the Amazonian Refuge and the Pleistocene Arc.  相似文献