Effects of Location Errors in Pattern Informatics     

N. F. Cho  K. F. Tiampo 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):185-196

The effect of location errors in the performance of seismicity-based forecasting methods was studied here using one particular binary forecast technique, the Pattern Informatics (PI) technique (Rundle et al., Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 99, 2514–2521, 2002; Tiampo et al., Pure Appl Geophys 159, 2429–2467, 2002). The Southern Californian dataset was used to generate a series of perturbed catalogs by adding different levels of noise to epicenter locations. The PI technique was applied to these perturbed datasets to perform retrospective forecasts that were evaluated by means of skill scores, commonly used in atmospheric sciences. These results were then compared to the effectiveness obtained from the original dataset. Isolated instances of decline of the PI performance were observed due to the nature of the skill scores themselves, but no clear trend of degradation was identified. Dependence on the total number of events in a catalog also was studied, with no systematic degradation in the performance of the PI for catalogs with events in the cases studied. These results suggest that the stability of the PI method is due to the invariance of the clustering patterns identified by the TM metric (Thirumalai and Mountain, Phys Rev A 39, 3563–3573, 1989) when applied to seismicity.  相似文献   

Temperature trends in the skin/surface, mid-troposphere and low stratosphere near Korea from satellite and ground measurements     

Jung-Moon Yoo  Young-In Won  Young-Jun Cho  Myeong-Jae Jeong  Dong-Bin Shin  Suk-Jo Lee  Yu-Ri Lee  Soo-Min Oh  Soo-Jin Ban 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(5):439-455

Various types of satellite (AIRS/AMSU, MODIS) and ground measurements are used to analyze temperature trends in the four vertical layers (skin/surface, mid-troposphere, and low stratosphere) around the Korean Peninsula (123–132°E, 33–44°N) during the period from September 2002 to August 2010. The ground-based observations include 72 Surface Meteorological Stations (SMSs), 6 radiosonde stations (RAOBs), 457 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) over the land, and 5 buoy stations over the ocean. A strong warming (0.052 K yr^?1) at the surface, and a weak warming (0.004～0.010 K yr^?1) in the mid-troposphere and low stratosphere have been found from satellite data, leading to an unstable atmospheric layer. The AIRS/AMSU warming trend over the ocean surface around the Korean Peninsula is about 2.5 times greater than that over the land surface. The ground measurements from both SMS and AWS over the land surface of South Korea also show a warming of 0.043～0.082 K yr^?1, consistent with the satellite observations. The correlation average (r = 0.80) between MODIS skin temperature and ground measurement is significant. The correlations between AMSU and RAOB are very high (0.91～0.95) in the anomaly time series, calculated from the spatial averages of monthly mean temperature values. However, the warming found in the AMSU data is stronger than that from the RAOB at the surface. The opposite feature is present above the mid-troposphere, indicating that there is a systematic difference. Warming phenomena (0.012～0.078 K yr^?1) are observed from all three data sets (SMS, AWS, MODIS), which have been corroborated by the coincident measurements at five ground stations. However, it should also be noted that the observed trends are subject to large uncertainty as the corresponding 95% confidence intervals tend to be larger than the observed signals due to large thermal variability and the relatively short periods of the satellitebased temperature records. The EOF analysis of monthly mean temperature anomalies indicates that the tropospheric temperature variability near Korea is primarily linked to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and secondarily to ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). However, the low stratospheric temperature variability is mainly associated with Southern Oscillation and then additionally with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Uncertainties from the different spatial resolutions between satellite data are discussed in the trends.  相似文献   

Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production     

JiYoung Park  Joongkoo Cho  Adam Rose 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(1):163-182

Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption) loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using simulation methods.  相似文献   

Modeling and control of a 75 kW class variable liquid-column oscillator for highly efficient wave energy converter     

Byung-Hak Cho  Dong-Soon Yang  Shin-Yeol Park  Kyung-Shik Choi  Do-Hwan Lee  Seung-Hyun Byun  Hoon Jung 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(2-3):436-443

The modeling and control of a variable liquid-column oscillator having a liquid filled U-tube with air chambers at its vertical columns are presented. As an ocean wave energy extracting device, the structure of the variable liquid-column oscillator (VLCO) is analogous to that of the tuned liquid-column damper used to suppress oscillatory motion in large structures like tall buildings and cargo ships. However, owing to an air spring effect caused by the dynamic pressure of air chambers, the amplitude of response of the VLCO becomes significantly amplified for a desired wave period. The governing equations for the motion of VLCO structure under wave excitation and the motion of liquid with an air spring effect caused by an air–liquid interaction are described by a series of nonlinear differential equations. A set of control parameters for extracting maximum power from various wave conditions is determined for the efficient operation of the VLCO. It is found that the effect of the air spring has an important role to play in making the oscillation of the VLCO match with the ocean wave. In this way, the VLCO provides the most effective mode for extracting energy from the ocean wave.  相似文献   

Field applicability of self-recovering sustainable liner as landfill final cover   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Ohjung Kwon  Wanjei Cho 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,62(8):1567-1576

Preventing the penetration of rainwater into a landfill site is the main purpose of the final cover in landfill sites. Conventional designs of landfill covers use geotextiles, such as geomembrane and geosynthetic clay liners, and clay liners to lower the permeability of the final cover of landfill sites. However, differential settlement and climatic effects in landfill sites instigate crack development or structural damage inside the final cover. This study therefore investigates the field applicability of a self-recovering sustainable liner (SRSL) as an alternative to the landfill final cover. The SRSL utilizes the precipitation reaction of two chemical materials to form precipitates that fill the pores and thereby lower the overall permeability of the liner. To examine the field applicability of the SRSL system, uniaxial compression tests and laboratory hydraulic conductivity tests were performed under various climatic effects such as wet/dry and freeze/thaw processes. Furthermore, field-scale hydraulic conductivity tests were performed with intentionally induced cracks to demonstrate the self-recovery performance for practical applications. Extensive laboratory and field test results confirmed the capability of the SRSL final cover system to fulfill the strength and hydraulic conductivity requirements, even in harsh field conditions.  相似文献   

Removing derelict fishing gear from the deep seabed of the East Sea     

Dong-Oh Cho 《Marine Policy》2011

The East Sea, with an average depth of 1700 m, has long been subject to heavy fishing pressure, resulting in derelict fishing gear. Most derelict fishing gears, such as fishing nets, fishing ropes, and crab pots, sink to the seabed and do not degrade. This gear results in “ghost fishing,” which has adverse impacts on deep benthic habitats. Recently, the Korean government has started to remove derelict fishing gears from the deep seabed of the East Sea by bottom trawling with heavy hooks (50–80 kg) and ropes. A total of 207.8 and 252.2 tons of marine debris in 2009 and 2010, respectively, were removed from the seabed, most of which were derelict fishing gears. Contrary to monitoring surveys and clean-up in shallow waters, removal of marine debris from remote deep habitats is much more difficult and dangerous for removal crews.  相似文献   

Predicting natural arsenic contamination of bedrock groundwater for a local region in Korea and its application     

Joo Sung Ahn  Yong-Chan Cho 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,68(7):2123-2132

A logistic regression model for the probability of arsenic exceeding the drinking water guidelines (10 μg/L) in bedrock groundwater was developed for a selected county in Korea, where arsenic occurrence and release reactions have been investigated. Arsenic was enriched naturally by the oxidation of sulfide minerals in metasedimentary rocks and mineralized zones, and due to high mobility in alkaline pH conditions, concentrations were high in groundwater of the county. When considering these reactions of arsenic release and water quality characteristics, several geological and geochemical factors were selected as influencing variables in the model. In the final logistic regression model, geological units of limestone and metasedimentary rocks, the concentrations of nitrate and sulfate, and distances to closed mines and adjacent granite were retained as statistically significant variables. Predicted areas of high probability agreed well with known spatial contamination patterns in the county. The model was also applied to an adjacent county, where the groundwater has not previously been tested for the presence of arsenic, and a probability map for arsenic contamination was then produced. Through the analysis of arsenic concentrations at the wells of high probability, it was determined that the applied model accurately indicated the arsenic contamination of groundwater. The logistic regression approach of this study can be applied to predict arsenic contamination in areas of similar geological and geochemical conditions to the county used in this model.  相似文献   

Chromospheric Sunspot Oscillations in Hα and Ca ii 8542 Å     

Ram Ajor Maurya  Jongchul Chae  Hyungmin Park  Heesu Yang  Donguk Song  Kyuhyoun Cho 《Solar physics》2013,288(1):73-88

We study chromospheric oscillations including umbral flashes and running penumbral waves in a sunspot of active region NOAA 11242 using scanning spectroscopy in Hα and Ca?ii 8542 Å with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) at the 1.6 meter New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory. A bisector method is applied to spectral observations to construct chromospheric Doppler-velocity maps. Temporal-sequence analysis of these shows enhanced high-frequency oscillations inside the sunspot umbra in both lines. Their peak frequency gradually decreases outward from the umbra. The oscillation power is found to be associated with magnetic-field strength and inclination, with different relationships in different frequency bands.  相似文献   

Velocities and Temperatures of an Ellerman Bomb and Its Associated Features     

Heesu Yang  Jongchul Chae  Eun-Kyung Lim  Hyungmin Park  Kyuhyoun Cho  Ram Ajor Maurya  Donguk Song  Yeon-Han Kim  Philip R. Goode 《Solar physics》2013,288(1):39-53

We investigated the velocity and temperature characteristics of an Ellerman bomb (EB) and its associated features based on observations made with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) and a broadband TiO filter of the 1.6 meter New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. In the TiO images of the photospheric level, we found a granular cell expanding in two opposite directions near the site of the EB. When one end of this granule reached the EB site, the transverse speed of the tip of the expanding granule rapidly decreased and the EB brightened. The wings of the Hα profile of the EB indicated that the EB was blueshifted up to 7 km?s^?1. About 260 s after the EB brightening, a surge was seen in absorption and varied from a blueshift of 20 km?s^?1 to a redshift of 40 km?s^?1 seen in the Hα and Ca ii 8542 Å lines. From the Doppler absorption width of the two lines determined by applying the cloud model, we estimated the mean temperature of the surge material to be about 29000 K and the mean speed of nonthermal motion to be about 11 km?s^?1. We discuss the physical implications of our results in terms of magnetic reconnection and processes related to it.  相似文献   

Three-dimensional EM computer simulation on sprite initiation above a horizontal lightning discharge     

T. Asano  T. Suzuki  M. Hayakawa  M.G. Cho 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2009,71(8-9):983-990

The purpose of this paper is to study the three-dimensional (3D) effects of the source current and the electromagnetic (EM) pulse on the distribution of upper atmospheric electric field and ionization created. A new lightning model has been employed; i.e., we have included a horizontal channel in addition to the conventional vertical channel. The effects of the horizontal lightning channel are summarized as follows: (1) the effect of a vertical channel plays a fundamental role in the whole view of sprite initiation; (2) the position of a sprite is shifted from the position of its parent vertical channel in response to the length of a horizontal channel; and (3) we observe very fine structures with local maxima and minima in the “reduced” electric field (the electric field divided by the neutral gas density). These theoretical inferences are discussed and compared with the observational facts so far reported (such as lateral shift of sprites, morphological difference of sprites, etc.).  相似文献