Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Michael G. Sunde  Hong S. He  Jason A. Hubbart  Michael A. Urban 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1790-1803

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.  相似文献   

直角坐标系的欧拉旋转变换及动力学方程   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

朱雷鸣  吴晓平  李建伟  吴星 《海洋测绘》2010,30(3):20-22

讨论了在直角坐标系中12种欧拉旋转变换中的6种坐标变换方式,根据矩阵的运算性质,推导了坐标变换的欧拉旋转矩阵和动力学方程,并且用M atlab的矩阵运算功能对所有公式的推导过程进行了验证。  相似文献   

海量多波束数据抽稀方法的比对分析          下载免费PDF全文

曹鸿博  张立华  朱穆华  赵巍 《海洋测绘》2010,30(5):81-83

针对构建海底DEM高效率、高精确度的要求,对比分析了海量多波束水深数据的抽稀方法。利用格网分块结构高效组织海量多波束水深数据,分别采用三种数学模型内插网格节点水深值,实现了不同网格尺度下的数据抽稀。实验证明:所提分块索引策略能提高多波束数据抽稀效率;距离加权内插模型能有效提高海底DEM模型的准确度。  相似文献   

厦门同安湾鳄鱼屿海岸侵蚀与防护对策     

林河山  廖连招  庄孔造  朱嘉  蔡晓琼  蔡鹭春 《台湾海峡》2010,29(4):566-570

在2009年3月对鳄鱼海岸线测量的基础上,利用ArcGIS软件分析比较了现有海岸线与厦门市集美区地形图（1988年版,图号：7-50-129甲-）中鳄鱼屿海岸线位置的变化.结果表明21a来,鳄鱼屿海岸最大侵蚀率为2.0 m/a,东南侧最大侵蚀宽度达42 m,侵蚀总面积达14 000 m2;其东北侧海岸侵蚀后退约35 m,侵蚀总面积达4 100 m2;其西北侧海岸最大侵蚀宽度达30 m,侵蚀面积达12 000 m2.文中就厦门市鳄鱼屿海岸侵蚀的成因进行了分析,提出了工程防护、人工补沙、红树林修复以及加强海岛及其周边海域资源综合管理等方面的防护对策.这可为我国其他无居民海岛的海岸侵蚀防护提供经验借鉴.  相似文献   

A simplified approach for settlement analysis of single pile and pile groups considering interaction between identical piles in multilayered soils     

Qian-Qing Zhang  Zhong-Miao Zhang  Jing-Yu He 《Computers and Geotechnics》2010,37(7-8):969-976

A new and simple approach is presented to analyze the elastic–plastic behavior of a single pile in layered soils using two models. One model adopts a hyperbolic approach to describe the nonlinear relationship between the shaft shear stresses and the displacement surrounding the pile shaft, and the other model uses a bilinear hardening model to simulate the relationship between the settlement and the mobilized load at the pile end. Furthermore, the interaction between identical piles including the pile shaft and the base interaction in multilayered soils is analyzed. Comparisons of the load–settlement responses for two well-instrumented field tests in multilayered soils are given to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed simple method. This present paper enables a quick estimate of the settlement of a single pile and a pile group embedded in layered soils, resulting in savings in time and cost.  相似文献   

长江倒灌鄱阳湖原因及发生条件的量化指标   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王志寰  朱立俊  王建中  范红霞  陈槐  刘贝贝 《水科学进展》1990,31(2):203-213

江湖倒灌对鄱阳湖流域水动力变化和流域水环境保护等方面有重要影响,正确认识江湖倒灌原因和倒灌发生条件对明晰江湖倒灌作用机理、研究倒灌强度和倒灌影响范围等方面具有重要意义。在剖析江湖倒灌原因的基础上,从非恒定流洪水波传播的角度出发,结合鄱阳湖为"河相"、"湖相"时江湖倒灌的特点,提出了长江作用强度指标和鄱阳湖作用强度指标,在此基础上引入江湖作用综合强度函数,依据实测资料,分析研究了江湖作用综合强度函数的关系表达式、江湖倒灌发生条件及量化指标。经验证,所提出的江水倒灌量化指标可区分江湖顶托和江湖倒灌现象,可实现对鄱阳湖为"河相"、"湖相"时的江湖倒灌预测,且提高了预测江湖倒灌起止时间、总历时和年内发生次数的准确率,成果可用于江湖关系研究和鄱阳湖流域水资源综合利用工程实践中。  相似文献   

Sensitivity experiments on summer monsoon circulation cell in east asia   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

He Jinhai  Li Jun  Zhu Qiangen 《大气科学进展》1989,6(1):120-132

The East-Asian summer monsoon meridional circulation (SMMC) cell is simulated together with two vigorous rainbands in terms of a primitive-equation model including in itself a variety of diabatic heating, frictional dissipation and moist processes under the condition of mountains available. Results are comparable to observations. Also, performed are experiments with the reduction of water content, and exclusion of the cumulus convective process and mountain effect. Contrast analyses indicate that the cell is strongly sensitive to the condition of the humidity field in the atmosphere, more intensely at 120o than at 100oE, and the presence (absence) of the cumulus convection has considerable effect on the intensification (weakening) of the cell, with the mountain ranges exhibiting more influence upon the cell at 100o than 120oE. This may suggest that a great difference lies in the cause of the cell for the two meridions.  相似文献   

5—10月全球热带和副热带200hPa多年平均环流的研究(一)——行星尺度环流系统          下载免费PDF全文

丁一汇  赵深铭  何诗秀 《大气科学》1988,12(2):174-181

本文用近13年200hPa高空风资料得到了夏半年(5—10月)逐月平均全球热带风场,发现如下一些主要结果: (1)在亚洲地区对流层上部反气旋存在两个中心;一个在青藏高原上空;一个在伊朗和阿富汗地区。两者的演变不同。伊朗高压的北推和撤退都比青藏高原上的早。北美墨西哥高压的变化在时间上与伊朗高压很相似。 (2)北太平洋中部高空槽(TUTT)出现在5—10月,8月份最强,位置最北;北大西洋中部高空槽出现在5—9月,7—8月最强。 (3)南半球冬季有三个主要的长波脊和长波槽,分别位于大陆以西和以东海区。  相似文献   

重力仪高频信息和地脉动的观测研究   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

陈益惠  雷雨田  朱涵云  郭自强 《地球物理学报》1988,31(5):527-539

本文介绍了应用电磁反馈零位检测技术改装的重力仪进行高频信息的观测。阐述重力仪高频信息频谱分布特征、数据采集、数字计算和随机信息的处理方法。利用高频信息可以很好地观测和研究地脉动,给出北京香山地震台利用重力仪高频信息观测所得的地脉动功率谱。分析了地脉动特征及其与台风过程的关系;讨论了某些大地震前所出现的地脉动异常现象。得出北京地区正常地脉动频率分布范围为0.13-0.32Hz,优势频率为0.2Hz,相应的卓越周期为5s的脉动频率异常,也可能在地脉动的正常频率处（0.2Hz左右）,出现幅度很大的脉动幅度异常,后者又往往与台风引起的幅度异常相混淆。  相似文献   

积雨云中微物理过程的数值模拟——(二)阵雨、冰雹、暴雨的个例研究   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

胡志晋  何观芳 《气象学报》1988,46(1):28-40

用文(一)的微物理模式在一维时变动力学框架里模拟了江西阵雨云,75·8暴雨和张家口冰雹云。用实测探空作为输入,计算结果同实测的云降水和雷达回波特征相比,在很多方面相当一致。它展示了暴雨云的持续性和冰雹云的低降水效率等,表明了在这些云底较暖的积雨云中贝吉隆过程对降水作用不大,而暖雨过程则是启动降水的主要环节。  相似文献